Lackluster Attack Could Cost the Portland Timbers a Playoff Berth

With six games to go in their Major League Soccer season, the Portland Timbers sit just two points above the dreaded red line that separates the playoff teams from the non-playoff teams in the Western Conference. Granted, they’re also only seven points from the top of the Supporters’ Shield standings, but with eight teams ahead of them and less than scintillating form as of late, the Shield seems an unlikely prize.

For a team that lost only three games between May 27 and August 22, and earned the second most points in MLS during that stretch, to be flirting with again missing the playoffs is to say the least, disappointing.

That the Timbers have just two points from their last three games, two of which were at home and all three of which they were clearly the better team in, sums up the Timbers struggles this season. One could even say it defines why this team is flirting with the red line instead of battling for the Supporters’ Shield.

Against the Dynamo three weeks ago the Timbers were the better team, but costly mistakes resulted in what was probably a fair 2-2 draw. The next week the Timbers went up to Seattle and dominated the Sounders thoroughly, only to lose 2-1, due mostly to poor finishing and again, costly defensive mistakes. Lackluster finishing and a brilliant performance by Tim Melia held the Timbers to a 0-0 draw against Sporting Kansas City last week. If not for poor finishing (mostly), the Timbers realistically could have had seven points from those three games, rather than two. That would’ve put the Timbers on 46 points, just two off the Supporters’ Shield. If this continues, a lackluster attack could cost the Portland Timbers a playoff berth.

Thanks to American Soccer Analysis’ game by game expected goals breakdown, we can see that in an average game, the Timbers would’ve been expected to beat both Seattle and Houston (Sporting Kansas City stats not available).

Instead, the Timbers failed to make the most of their chances, and sit dangerously close to missing out on the playoffs for a second consecutive season.

The attack has been a problem for the Timbers all season long and in particular, their failure to consistently finish their chances. The Timbers are scoring an average of 1.07 goals per game, below their expected goals per game of 1.20. Their expected goals number puts them solidly mid-table in MLS, while their actual goals per game is fourth worst in the league.

A closer look at the statistics shows some interesting figures. First, the Timbers have taken the 397 shots this season, second only to the Columbus Crew and 26 more than Toronto FC who have taken the fourth most shots. That they’re so close to the top of MLS in shots taken, but only mid-table (10th) in expected goals suggests that the Timbers are taking a lot of shots from not so dangerous areas of the field. Some of this is explained by the Timbers being third in MLS with 163 shots taken from outside the box.

That Portland has the most key passes in MLS with 284, and the 16th most assists with just 23, lends more credence to the argument that the shots that are being created aren’t dangerous shots.

Looking at the latest data available on American Soccer Analysis, here’s a look at how Diego Valeri and Darlington Nagbe, the Timbers’ leading chance creators, compare with some of the league’s best chance creators in terms of assists and key passes.  Despite comparable numbers of key passes (defined as a pass leading directly to a shot), both Nagbe and Valeir lag behind in expected assists and the rate of expected assists per key pass. While both are near the league average for midfielders of 0.092, the Timbers don’t rely on Nagbe and Valeri to be average chance creators, they count on them to be elite.

(Note: American Soccer Analysis counts only primary assists, so assist totals will differ from those recorded by Major League Soccer.)

So, while finishing is clearly an issue, perhaps the bigger issue is the quality of chances being created. Further highlighting this: Fanendo Adi, the Timbers leading scorer, who many would say is among the leaders in wasting chances this year, is actually OUT-PERFORMING his expected goals, scoring 10, with an xG of 8.69.

That said, Adi’s outperforming his expected goals is overshadowed by every other attacking player on the Timbers underperforming theirs. Only Jack Jewsbury, Nat Borchers, and Diego Chara, who have a combined seven goals and 4.13 expected goals, are outscoring their expected goals. This isn’t to say that expected goals is a perfect stat, but it does provide a good picture of the chances being created and how a team is finishing.

Portland simply isn’t creating high quality chances and, for the most part, when they do, they aren’t finishing at even an average rate. With just 29 goals the Timbers are one of just four teams currently in playoff spots to have scored less than 40 goals in all of MLS. If not for a defense that has been able to keep the Timbers in games, including a league leading 12 clean sheets, this Timbers team would almost certainly be on the wrong side of the red line.

Portland’s attack needs to get going and they need to do it now. The challenge will be making it happen against a tough slate of opponents to finish the season. In their last six games, the Timbers take on the New York Red Bulls, Columbus Crew, Sporting Kansas City, Real Salt Lake, LA Galaxy, and the Colorado Rapids. For the Timbers, the message is clear: start scoring, or a lackluster attack could cost the Portland Timbers a playoff berth.