Let’s start our with what we mentioned last week, that this would be a real test week for the SEC. The non-conference lineup included a lot of teams from Group of 5 conferences, but many of them were quality teams that we should have known would push the SEC teams to their limits. Blowing them all out would have been a show of dominance. Losing too many would have shown that the SEC was not quite as ahead of the pack as many thought. And losing one or two but winning the rest comfortably would have shown that the SEC was in the same position as just about every other power conference.
What we saw was clearly the third scenario. Arkansas got upset at home by a good Toledo team. Florida barely hung on in a Liberty Bowl rematch against East Carolina while Missouri survived a road trip against Arkansas State in Jonesboro. The biggest shock was Auburn needing a last-minute touchdown to force overtime against FCS Jacksonville State.
Week 2 CFP Implications: SEC Falters, BYU States its Case
So was it a good week for the SEC? No. But is it the apocalypse that many instant reactions were making it out to be? Also no. The SEC showed this week that they are a normal power conference. They have some very good teams, like Alabama and Ole Miss. They have some bad teams, like Vanderbilt. And then they have middle-tier teams that win games that they should but can struggle against a good mid-major or a solid team from another power conference. In short, the SEC is a normal power conference. They might even still be the best power conference. But as a whole, they are not as far ahead of the rest of the country as some would have you think.
Again, though, this is not at all inherently relevant to the playoff picture. None of the teams who struggled were really expected to make the CFP anyway. (Well, I guess some people gave Tennessee and Arkansas outside chances to win their respective divisions, but most agreed that those were long shots). As long as Arkansas doesn’t upset any of the major contenders, this loss to Toledo won’t affect the playoff picture much. It might mean one fewer ranked team on the resume of the SEC champion, but losses were going to sort themselves out in the conference anyway.
Where this can have an effect is if the SEC champion has two losses. Many have assumed that a 2-loss SEC team will be in serious contention against 1-loss teams from other power conferences. With the struggles of SEC teams this week, though, that invincible perception of the SEC has been shattered. It is still possible–likely, even–that a 2-loss SEC champion can have a better resume than a 1-loss champion from some of the other power conferences. But it is a lot closer now. We’ll see if the rest of nonconference play closes that gap even more. LSU still has to visit Syracuse and Mississippi State will face Louisiana Tech. When the end of the season rolls around, we may be looking back at those games as the ones that shaped our final perception of the SEC.
Teams Eliminated from Playoff Contention
We did not put this section in CFP Implications last year because, with no real knowledge or precedent to see how the committee worked, it would have been a bit presumptuous to try and guess who had no real chance of making the playoff. Now, though, we can bring this section (which we had back in the BCS days) to this column. We are going to be very gun-shy on eliminating teams early in the season, but we highly doubt we will ever have to bring back anyone we eliminated. So far, we have eliminated 33 teams, just over 25% of FBS.
AAC: UCF, SMU, Tulane, Cincinnati, ECU, South Florida
ACC: None
Big XII: Kansas
Big Ten: None
Conference USA:Only Western Kentucky has not been eliminated.
MAC: Only Northern Illinois, Toledo, Ohio, and Western Michigan are not yet eliminated
Mountain West: Only Air Force has not been eliminated
Pac 12: Washington State
SEC: None
Sun Belt: All have been eliminated
Independents: Army
I will not spend too much time discussing Michigan State’s win over Oregon, because I will devote a full article to that later in the week. Oregon will be favored in the remainder of their games. Michigan State will be favored in all but one. Let’s just say that if things play out according to chalk from here (big if), the committee is going to have one heck of a decision on their hands.
Let’s move on to the Group of 5 teams, which had a huge shakeup this past week. We’ll start with the obvious, Boise State’s last-minute loss to BYU. This was clearly a battle of two very good teams and both should be ranked in the Top 25 at the end of the season. Both came into this game dreaming of more, though. Boise’s goal of a New Year’s Six game is still well within reach, but any hopes of reaching the Playoff are gone. BYU, meanwhile, keeps both their Playoff and New Year’s Six hopes alive. BYU doesn’t quite have the ease of access that Boise does because the Cougars can’t be a conference champion, but if they run the table they should at the very least get an invite to a NY6 bowl. I won’t spend too much time on this here, either, because I will publish an article about BYU’s CFP hopes later in the week as well.
Boise State’s position as the top Group of 5 team took a bit of a hit with the loss to BYU, but losing a nonconference game to a Top 25 team really shouldn’t hurt too much in the long run. The CFP wants to encourage these high-profile nonconference games to continue, so they can’t punish a team too much for losing them. On the other hand, a loss is still a loss. Boise State was also helped out that some of the other main Group of 5 contenders, including Marshall, Appalachian State, and Georgia Southern, already have worse nonconference losses of their own.
The Broncos’ main competition will come from the American and the MAC. That’s right, you read that right–the MAC. The American looks like the best Group of 5 conference right now, with Temple, Houston, and Memphis all leading the pack. Those three are all talented teams, though all are built very differently, and at least one of them should be a Top 25 team at one point or another, maybe even all three. How they survive conference play and how they play each other will go a long way towards determining this Go5 bid.
This week, though, it’s all about the MAC. Toledo is fresh off their upset of Arkansas and Ohio just took out Marshall. Both of these teams looked good and are talented across the board. Toledo was even missing their start tailback (Kareem Hunt) in their upset win. Ohio still has a road game against Minnesota on their nonconference schedule while Toledo has another beatable Power 5 opponent in Iowa State on the schedule. Ohio and Toledo are in different divisions and don’t play each other in the regular season this year. If both of those teams can finish their nonconference season unscathed, we will be eight weeks away from a potential MAC Championship Game between undefeated teams. We’d be getting way too far ahead of ourselves to really talk about this now, but the potential right now has to have the MAC executives very excited. We will keep an eye on this as the season goes on, but I for one am hoping to see a #MACtion Game of the Century with a potential at a New Years’ Six bowl as the reward.
