I am sure most if not all of us remember the first time we kissed someone, or dance, or date or the back seat. We got to remember the first fight, broken bone, and black eye. We remember the first car, first love and first house. The list can go on and on but I think you get the point.
The first week of fantasy football season we all wonder how it will go. Did I draft the right players? Did I start the right players? Should I add/drop anyone? Are the match-ups good? No matter how much advice you get it is still enough to give anxiety to the strongest of men.
I missed deadline with this column but I believe it was meant to be. I get a text from an acquaintance on Friday morning. He cursed himself and I was lost why he would be sending it to me. He went on to mention that he sat DeAngelo Williams because some “experts” told him too. Very annoyed that he didn’t trust himself he vowed to never go against his own feelings about who will do good or bad. I replied with as you should. I think that stunned him that some in the business of fantasy would tell him to do such a thing but it’s the truth.
Fabber’s Believe It or Not, Firsts and Week One
I have said it since 2004, which is when I started writing and talking sports and fantasy. You read and listen to everything you can, gather all the info you want and make your choice. Best advice is trust your gut! At the end of the day you will get some wrong, you will get some right and you will be content with it.
I love fantasy sports because it will teach us many things we can use in life. The importance of having people you can trust. That you control your choices you make. That if you win this week or lose you come back to try again and again in life. Be prepared for situations like you are for the draft but also know that things will happen you couldn’t predict. I love writing these columns because it gives me a platform to show how much life and fantasy are parallel (oh and I love fantasy and life).
So another year I will thank you for letting me be part of your life but take the warning. What I say is not gospel read everything you can on what many of us believe to be right and make your decision. The chips will fall where they will and you will move on no matter what the result. As always good luck and thank you for letting LWOS be part of your team.
Before I start breaking down who I believe in for week one and who I do not let’s take a second and remember 9/11. All the people lost and all the people fighting to make sure it doesn’t happen again. I was at shoot around in the gym at Keystone College, never forget!
Believes
Quarterbacks:
Sam Bradford Eagles
He is healthy. He is in an offense he loves. He has a solid running game to keep defenses honest. He has the best selection of weapons he has played with to date in the NFL. He is also playing the Atlanta Falcons, who gave up 17 plus points to quarterbacks last year. This is a dream match-up for week one so if you got him, play him.
Carson Palmer Cardinals
Before he was injured last year Palmer was a QB1. He plays in a great system for quarterbacks and he loves to sling that ball. He has solid positional players surrounding him. He is playing a Saints defense that lost their best cornerback. They also gave up the fourth most points in fantasy last year to quarterbacks.
Ryan Tannehill Dolphins
He loves the system they run and they have better players to run it this year. He has a healthy line and he is going up against the team that gave up the most fantasy points to quarterbacks last year in the Redskins.
Running Backs:
Doug Martin Buccaneers
He is looking for that bounce back year. He came into this season weighing more with the same body fat, amazing. He looks like he did when he came in the league. He is worth the play. It also helps he is playing against the second worse rushing fantasy defense from a year ago. The Bucs will also protect Winston as much as possible by establishing a running game.
Jonathon Stewart Panthers
He will be the main ball handler to start the season till he gets hurt or shows he cannot handle it. He is in a system that will run early and often. The jaguars gave up 23 fantasy points to opposing running backs last year, so that helps as well.
Latavius Murray Raiders
The Raiders are trying to protect their young quarterback and keep defenses honest. They need to feed Murray the ball to do that. The Bengals gave up 22 points per game to opposing teams rushers. Murray will get the bulk of work and should capitalize. Great match-up for the hopeful.
Wide Recievers:
Jarvis Landry Dolphins
He is the number one now in Miami. The system is a pass first system and he fits it perfect. A solid quarterback he has chemistry with and enough weapons on the team where the defense will play straight up. He is also facing the second worst passing defense from last year in the Redskins, giving up 27 points per game to receivers.
Nelson Agholor Eagles
Yes he is a rookie in his first real game but it is too good to pass up. They want to get him involved. Matthews will receive the focus of the defense leaving Agholor fighting single coverage all game long versus on of the poorest pass defenses from a year ago. They will get him the ball and he knows what to do with it.
John Brown Cardinals
The big play threat will be covered by a bench player. He has rocket speed and great hands but still a slot guy. He is behind Floyd and Fitzgerald on the depth chart but could pass them in fantasy this year. The Saints were bad before the injury, it only got worse.
Tight-Ends:
Richard Rodgers Packers
The Bears defense is bad but its defense versus tight-ends was worse in the league last year. Rodgers is that athletic type of tight-end, looks like a basketball player standing 6’4”. They will focus on containing the wide outs leaving him to crush them.
Jordan Cameron Dolphins
He is a player when healthy and right now he is healthy. This system gives plenty of opportunity to the tight-ends. Also Tannehill loves to look their way. The match-up is a dream one as well.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins Buccaneers
He has a young quarterback that will look for his security blanket. Enough weapons on the outside to keep the defense honest and great ability. Titans gave up 10 points per game to tight-ends and he is lucky enough to be playing them.
Kickers:
Justin Tucker Ravens
Matt Bryant Falcons
Chandler Catanzaro Cardinals
Defenses:
Panthers
Jaguars
Vikings
Nots
Quarterbacks:
Colin Keapernick 49ERS
The Vikings defense is better than advertised this year. The offensive line for the 49ers might be the worst in the NFL. They have an unproven running game that a rugby player was good enough to make and that’s the best story of the team. Enough said.
Teddy Bridgewater Vikings
He is playing in the same game as the first guy but for different reasons. If this team gets within striking distance of that end zone it will be all AP all day and that doesn’t help his cause. They will look to pound the ball and control clock, doesn’t help fantasy value for a QB.
Any rookie QB this year
I know the battle of rookies but defenses pray off young naïve quarterbacks and both of them are. They are not worth the risk period.
Running Backs:
Melvin Gordon Chargers
He doesn’t look to get the NFL game yet, especially the blocking of it. He is missing the explosion that we were hoping to see at this point. He will also be on the team trailing in the game and having to throw the ball to keep up with the other team’s offense.
Alfred Blue Texans
Many love him as long as foster is out but this is not the match-up for him. He is out of my top 20 and out of any starting line-up if I can help it.
Joseph Randle Cowboys
They have too many mouths to feed and not enough balls to do it. I will say this I have lost my love and feeling towards this player. If he was that good the team wouldn’t be bringing in other backs and starting McFadden, just saying.
Wide Receivers:
Mike Evans Buccaneers
He might be a top 20 receiver but he missed most of the preseason due to injury and still is not 100%. He has rookie quarterback and not much chemistry with him. I do not trust this yet.
Steve Smith Sr. Ravens
Yes he is the number one for this team now and yes he is in his last year of a HALL OF FAME career but not this week. He will be getting the whole kitchen sink thrown at him by the defense and that doesn’t spell success.
Torrey Smith 49ERS
He is a deep threat and Keapernick biggest weakness is hitting the deep threat. Even if he got better at it his line is so bad he will not have time to go deep. Bad play all around, could be season long bad play!
Tight-Ends:
Charles Clay Bills
He is not 100% yet but will tough it out because that is what he does. It is a running system and the tight-end will be mostly blocking, which he didn’t like so much in Miami or do so well. The Bills will also keep him home to block on passing downs to make sure the line holds up and their quarterback makes it through week one.
Zach Ertz Eagles
He is not what many was hoping he would be. He will be splitting snaps and he is still nursing an injury. Another year for him to disappoint all of us that own him.
Coby Fleener Colts
We are off him, Allen is the one you want to own. Time to face facts and move on. He will only get four targets. What do you want with four targets?!?!?!?
Kickers:
Andrew Franks Dolphins
Robbie Gould Bears
Phil Dawson 49ERS
Defenses:
Arizona Cardinals
Baltimore Ravens
Philadelphia Eagles
