The 2015 NFL regular season will officially get underway Thursday night when the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers square off in the first game of the 2015 season. I have already made my AFC and NFC regular season predictions, along with predicting how the AFC and NFC playoffs will pan out, and which team will win Super Bowl 50. I also predicted which players will be named Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year. Some of those prognostications may seem bold (like having the New York Giants winning the NFC East), but here are three separate bold predictions for the 2015 NFL season.
THREE BOLD PREDICTIONS FOR THE 2015 NFL SEASON
DALLAS COWBOYS WILL BE SUB .500 MIDWAY THROUGH THEIR SCHEDULE
This prediction is not a function of the Dallas Cowboys finishing the preseason with a 1-3 record. All you need to know about how much preseason records matter is that the season the Detroit Lions went 4-0 in the preseason they became the first NFL team to go 0-16 in a regular season. The preseason is important from an evaluation standpoint, but the records are meaningless as far as predicting how a team will fare in the regular season. The Cowboys went 12-4 in 2014 and won the NFC East, but there are two main reasons I believe they will have a sub .500 record through their first eight games.
One factor is their schedule the first half of the season, which is really tough. Dallas plays the Giants and Philadelphia Eagles (good divisional opponents) twice each, along with the New Orleans Saints (I have them winning the NFC South), New England Patriots (defending Super Bowl champions who will be on a mission this season), Seattle Seahawks (been to two straight Super Bowls, including winning one), and the Atlanta Falcons (who should be improved in 2015). Their schedule gets easier in the second half of the season, but it’s not a leap to believe there are at least five losses in those first eight games.
The second issue facing the Cowboys is the departure of running back DeMarco Murray, who is now in Philadelphia. Last season Murray led the NFL in rushing with 1,845 yards and 13 rushing touchdowns (tied with Marshawn Lynch) on 392 carries. That production took a lot of pressure off of quarterback Tony Romo, which helped him have a great 2014 campaign. Below are the numbers that prove the more attempts Romo has, the worse he plays.
2014: 435 attempts (27.19 attempts per game) 34 touchdowns, nine interceptions, 113.2 rating
2013: 535 attempts (33.44 attempts per game) 31 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 96.7 rating
2012: 648 attempts (40.5 attempts per game) 28 touchdowns, 19 interceptions, 90.5 rating
Dallas wants Romo to throw the ball 25-30 times per game, and Murray allowed that to be a reality last season. Unfortunately for the Cowboys, they do not have a running back, or a combination of running backs, that can do for Romo what Murray did in 2014. Romo will be asked to do too much, and even with one of the best offensive lines in the league, Romo and the Cowboys will struggle, particularly in the first half of the season, and fail to make the playoffs.
MARCUS MARIOTA WILL OUTPLAY JAMES WINSTON IN WEEK 1 AND THROUGHOUT THE SEASON
Jameis Winston was drafted number one overall by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the 2015 NFL Draft, and the Tennessee Titans selected Marcus Mariota with the second pick. These two rookie quarterbacks will be forever linked, since they are both Heisman Trophy winners and they were drafted in the same year. They are also the only reasons reason Bucs vs. Titans is one of my three must watch NFL Week 1 games.
I have not hid the fact that I’m not a fan of Winston. He is athletic, there is no doubt about that. But he is immature (proven by his off field behavior while at Florida State), and he makes too many mistakes on the field. Even if he manages to eliminate the off field issues, and only time will tell if he is able to do so, the on field mistakes will be Winston’s undoing. The former Florida State Seminole struggles when throwing into tight spaces, and those windows will be even smaller in the NFL. His athleticism will only carry him so far. He’s basically a subpar version of Cam Newton, and I wouldn’t want Newton quarterbacking my team either.
Mariota will also have to continue to develop on the field at the NFL level, but I think he is the smarter quarterback of the two. I also think the former Oregon Duck has shown he is capable of playing under center during the preseason. That was certainly a question he needed to answer when entering the league, and it largely seems like he is capable of doing so. If you combine that with his intelligence and his tremendous ability to work from the shotgun and extend plays, Mariota looks like he’ll have the better rookie season, and the better career.
SAM BRADFORD WILL BE THE COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR
Eagles fans were probably more than a little perplexed when, amongst his other moves this offseason, head coach Chip Kelly traded quarterback Nick Foles to the St. Louis Rams for quarterback Sam Bradford. Bradford has more talent than Foles, but he has had trouble staying on the field throughout his career. The former Oklahoma quarterback tore his ACL in each of the last two seasons, which is never promising. But Philadelphia’s offensive line, while not as good as the Cowboys, is pretty darn good. Philly still has left tackle Jason Peters, who is one of the best in the business, and right tackle Lane Johnson, who is a quality tackle in his own right. Yes, left guard Evan Mathis is now with the Denver Broncos, but the Eagles are pretty strong on the offensive line, and hopefully that translates to Bradford remaining upright.
Bradford has played really well in the preseason, and he has some talent around him too, including running backs DeMarco Murray, Darren Sproles and Ryan Mathews, tight ends Zach Ertz (Eagles expect him to be ready for Week 1) and Brent Celek, wide receiver Jordan Matthews, and 2015 first-round pick wide receiver Nelson Agholor. If Bradford can stay healthy, and utilize the weapons around him, he could put up some seriously good numbers in 2015, en route to being named the NFL Comeback Player of the Year.
These are my bold predictions. If you have any, let me know!
LANDOVER, MD – DECEMBER 28: Quarterback Tony Romo #9 of the Dallas Cowboys acknowledges the crowd after defeating the Washington Redskins at FedExField on December 28, 2014 in Landover, Maryland. The Dallas Cowboys won, 44-17. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)
