Tennessee Volunteers 2015 Schedule Analysis, Games 7-12
Yesterday we broke down the Tennessee Volunteer’s schedule for the first half of the season. Today, we’ll do the same for the stretch run.
Of course, we can never predict or expect injuries or outside influences and their impacts on the upcoming season. But we can look at match-ups and think about how each game will play out.
Tennessee Volunteers Schedule Analysis: Games 7-12
When we left off yesterday, we had the Vols at 4-2 (with losses to Oklahoma and Georgia) and expectations still high in Knoxville. The Vols get their bye-week right in the middle of the season and use that to get a little healthy and set the stage for a strong second-half run.
Game 7: Tennessee at Alabama, October 24th
One of the great under-appreciated rivalries of college football again has national relevance. Alabama and Tennessee are first and second in every major statistical category in the SEC. Conference championships, national titles, wins. And while it’s technically the fourth Saturday in October, this rivalry will get back to business this year. Tennessee is coming off their bye and will have time to scheme and get healthy. Alabama will be coming off what I believe will be a loss against Texas A&M and might be looking forward to their bye. People forget that after Josh Dobbs entered the game last year, Tennessee outscored the Crimson Tide through two and a half quarters. But the Tide’s defense learn from Georgia and are able to hold the Volunteer offense in check. Alabama has too much talent and too much depth…for now. This game is close, but Alabama prevails. Alabama 20, Tennessee 13
Game 8: Tennessee at Kentucky, October 31st
This is where Tennessee, sitting at 4-3, must take control of their season. The Kentucky game starts the final stretch of the schedule, and in this stretch Tennessee will have more talent on the field than every team they play. Expect Kentucky to be a little bit better than they were last year, when they just missed out on a bowl. They will have a good passing attack and Boom Williams should provide a legitimate rushing threat. But Tennessee’s defensive line should be rounded into form by this time and look for the defense to play well, as Kentucky is a good match-up for the Tennessee defense. And Kentucky’s defense isn’t quite ready to stay with Tennessee’s offense, especially without last year’s star Bud Dupree. Look for Tennessee to get back on the right track with no tricks and a lot of treats on Halloween in Lexington. Tennessee 49, Kentucky 28
Game 9: South Carolina at Tennessee, November 7th
This is probably the second-most important game on the schedule for the Vols this season. Tennessee has beaten South Carolina the past two years in upsets, and the Vols cannot afford to drop games against East Division peers. You have to think South Carolina receiver Pharoh Cooper will receive triple-coverage the whole game. Brandon Wilds is back, but South Carolina’s rushing attack probably won’t be able to threaten Tennessee’s defense. USC brings back eight starters from a defense that was absolutely thrashed on multiple occasions last year. I think the Gamecocks enter the game in the midst of another disappointing season with discussion about the future of head coach Steve Spurrier. Look for the Vol faithful to give the hometown boy a very fond farewell in Neyland Stadium. Tennessee 41, South Carolina 27
Game 10: North Texas at Tennessee, November 14th (Homecoming)
North Texas wasn’t a very good team in 2014 and doesn’t look to be much of a threat in 2015 either. The Mean Green do return some key skill players, but project to start four new players on the offensive line and lose four of their top four tacklers. Expect Tennessee to emply another conservative game plan and take control of this game early with a solid one-two punch from the Hurd-Kamara running attack and consistent first-level passing from Josh Dobbs. The defense should be able to harass and disrupt the North Texas offense all day. Look for Tennessee’s back-ups and reserves to get significant playing time in this game. Tennessee 45, North Texas 13
Game 11: Tennessee at Missouri, November 21st
I expect this game will decide the runner-up in the SEC East, which should secure a top-tier bowl for the winner. I expect Missouri to come in with two losses and Tennessee with three. Missouri is one of those teams that no one can ever figure out. They seem to play better on the road than at home, and with Tennessee still a young team, the Vols might play better in Columbia than they should. Missouri also seems to play to their competition. We know they play well late. But without the defensive line talent they’ve had in recent years, expect Tennessee’s rushing attack to exploit a very untested defensive front and use a lot of play-action to move the ball. Tennessee’s defense should be able to key on the Tigers’ rushing attack, although Missouri is always a tough out. This might be the difference between a three-loss season and a four-loss season for the Vols. Tennessee 27, Missouri 24
Game 12: Vanderbilt at Tennessee, Nov. 28th
Tennessee will likely come into their home finale in great shape for a second-place SEC East finish and a top-tier bowl on the line. After last year’s close call, don’t expect any let down as the Vols might be riding a four-game win streak. Tennessee’s execution offense is able to circumnavigate a decent Commodores defense, but the real story of this game will be Tennessee’s defense putting in a dominant performance against a Vanderbilt offense that doesn’t show much improvement from a tumultuous 2014 campaign. This could be Derek Mason’s swan song at Vanderbilt. Expect this game to be put away early. Tennessee 34, Vanderbilt 13
So there you have it. Looking at the schedule I think the Vols turn in a 9-3 season, with the Oklahoma and Georgia games as games that could turn into wins and the Arkansas and Missouri games as games that could turn into losses. A final record of 9-3 and second place in the SEC East should get the Vols into a New Year’s Day Bowl in a sunny climate.
The margin for error for Tennessee isn’t big, though. One unfortunate injury or bad call against them could have consequences. The Vols have talent now like they haven’t had in a half-decade, but still lack the depth to make a concerted push at a conference title.
But, the season is here. We are just a few days away from the end of prognosticating and the beginning of enjoying another great season.
Can the Vols turn an offseason of hype into a football season of fulfillment? We’ll find out, starting this weekend. It’s here.
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