Through 26 games this season the Portland Timbers have 40 points. That’s more than they had at this stage in 2013, when they won the Western Conference and just missed out on winning the Supporters Shield. Yet, they find themselves, not at the top of the Western Conference, but sitting in fourth place and far from assured of a playoff berth. The Timbers are unbeaten in their last four matches, and have suffered just three losses since May 27.
The Seattle Sounders, meanwhile, having started the season on a tear and spending most of the spring months atop or near the top of the Western Conference, find themselves in sixth place with 35 points, tied with the San Jose Earthquakes, who have a game in hand on Seattle. Since the beginning of June, the Sounders have won just three games and lost 10, including five consecutive at one stretch.
Matchups between the Timbers and Sounders don’t need anything to make them a big deal. They’re a massive clash no matter the context, typically the biggest games of the year for both teams and their supporters, no matter what the standings say. That this weekend’s matchup has such significant playoff implications as we head into the home stretch in MLS play simply makes this matchup even bigger.
Now that the stage is set, here’s three keys for the Portland Timbers vs Seattle:
1. Avoid a false start
Failing to take advantage of fast starts have been a problem for Portland going back to the beginning of last season. In 2014 the Timbers were notorious for spending the early stages of the game on the front foot and creating many scoring chances, and then conceding first before having to fight back late. Last weekend against the Houston Dynamo, the same thing happened. The Timbers failed to convert a number of chances against the Dynamo, made two big mistakes, and were down 2-0 at the half. The week before, they spent the first half being dominated by Real Salt Lake, forced into bunkering and trying to counter, before adjusting at halftime and making the counter-attack work, evening things out a bit.
Against Seattle the Timbers can’t afford to have a false start. These matchups are often open affairs with lots of chances. It’s vital that the Timbers convert an early chance and get on the board first. No amount of scoring chances in the world do any good if at least some don’t end with the ball in the back of the net.
2. Counter efficiently and intentionally
Speaking of avoiding a false start, the Timbers will likely look to sit back a bit more and attack on the counter, as they’ve done on the road lately. That’s fine, but they need to do it intentionally. Against Real Salt Lake, they spent the first half looking like they were being forced into a counter-attacking game, rather than setting up to counter. It may not seem like a huge difference whether the counter attack is planned or not, but it’s important to the mental side of the game so that there aren’t lapses at the back.
Portland also needs to be more efficient on the counter. In previous games they’ve wasted many chances when there have been opportunities to counter and the Timbers haven’t made the most of them. Darlington Nagbe should play a big part in this. He’s in many ways a one man counter attack, and when Portland beat Seattle 4-1 earlier this year, he was a huge reason for their success. If the Timbers can counter through Nagbe and Diego Valeri, it will be up to whoever starts up top, likely Fanendo Adi or Lucas Melano, to take advantage and put one in the back of the net.
3. Will Johnson must stay positionally disciplined
This might be the most important of the three keys for the Portland Timbers. Diego Chara’s red card at the end of the Houston Dynamo game last weekend was an incredibly dumb foul, especially so late and heading into such an important game. Chara’s suspension likely means that Jack Jewsbury will start in the center of midfield next to Johnson. Jewsbury has been a good player for a long time but he’s nowhere near as mobile as Chara, meaning Johnson needs to be more aware of his positioning and make sure he’s in a position to help defensively. Stumptown Footy showed last week how Johnson not being aware of his own positioning when Chara was upfield led to Houston’s second goal. Johnson needs to be aware of his own positioning and Jewsbury’s positioning. While Jewsbury will likely sit back more than Chara, perhaps freeing Johnson to go forward more at times, it’s the awareness of when to go and when to stay that will be vital.
Not only is this match important in the MLS playoff race, it also has Cascadia Cup implications. A win would put the Sounders in first place in the Cascadia Cup standings heading into a matchup next month against Vancouver. A Portland win would put them level on points with Vancouver, though the Whitecaps own the tiebreaker over the Timbers.
With Clint Dempsey looking likely to miss another game due to injury, this could be a great opportunity for the Timbers to go into Seattle and come away with not only the three points, but pride in beating their rival and giving Seattle’s playoff hopes a major blow. All the seats at CenturyLink Field will be open for the game, meaning there could be a near record MLS crowd urging Seattle on, making it a tough encounter for Portland, but the opportunity is there. If the Timbers can capitalize on an early chance, they have a great opportunity to get all three points.
