The first week of the 2015/16 NCAA College Football Season will kick off Thursday and a host of quality games are on the docket from the first day of the season. Last Word on Sports has assembled a panel of college football experts to analyze and predict the best matchups each week of the season, and without further adieu Yesh Ginsburg, John Bava, Steen Kirby, and Mike Loveall will make their picks.
#2 TCU at Minnesota (Thursday 9/3/15 9 P.M. EST in Minneapolis, Minnesota)
Line: TCU by 17
Yesh:
TCU visits Minnesota to open the season and the Horned Frogs are preseason favorites (along with Ohio State) to reach the College Football Playoff. Jerry Kill has done an incredible job building successful programs just about everywhere he’s gone and done it all completely under the radar. This could be a huge breakout chance for him and the Golden Gophers, as their strength (the secondary) matches up against TCU’s strength (the passing offense). This should be a surprisingly good game.
Prediction: TCU 31, Minnesota 27
John:
Trevone Boykin leads a hungry Horned Frogs offense that returns nearly everyone from last year’s campaign where they just missed out on the CFP. They open the season on the road in Minneapolis hoping to replicate last year’s 30-7 win against the Gophers. Minnesota doesn’t return much on offense, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see TCU win this one big.
Prediction: TCU 38, Minnesota 17
Steen:
Jerry Kill has quietly built Minnesota into a bowl game quality team that is capable of 8 wins or more this season. and they are a big of a sleeper team in the Big 10. At home with expectations higher than usual, and with the chance of knocking off a top 3 team, the Golden Gophers should be fired up, which could keep the game close for a while. However, Trevone Boykin, Josh Doctson and the rest of TCU on both sides on the ball are forces to be reckoned with, and likely have a chip on their shoulder this year from the playoff snub. Both teams are excellent in the secondary, and Minnesota’s all Big 10 corners Eric Murray and Briean Boddy-Calhoun may give Boykin and company fits, but TCU is a more complete team, and with Minnesota sorely lacking offensive leaders after losing their star running back and tight end last year, they likely struggle to get going against such a defensively sound team, securing TCU a win.
Prediction: TCU 28, Minnesota 14
Mike:
TCU starts their season of revenge on the road against a quality Big Ten opponent in Minnesota. Look for Minnesota to struggle at home after losing David Cobb and four of their top five receivers. They do return quarterback Mitch Leidner, but his value is suspect after having an 11 TD-to-8 INT ration in 2014. What won’t be a question is the TCU offense, returning Heisman favorite Trevone Boykin and 10 starters on offense. TCU covered in 10 of 12 games last year. No different here.
Prediction: TCU 48, Minnesota 17
#6 Auburn vs. Louisville (Saturday 9/5/15 3:30 P.M. EST in Atlanta, Georgia)
Line: Auburn by 10.5
Yesh:
Call this my upset special of the week. Auburn has a lot of hype coming into the season and I honestly don’t see it. The Tigers are a young team with a ton of questions on defense and a well-heralded but unproven quarterback taking over the offense. Meanwhile, Bobby Petrino has a JUCO-rich team coming in this year, something he’s had great success with in the past.
Prediction: Louisville 38, Auburn 35
John:
The Georgia Dome will be a neutral site in name only for this one, as throngs of Auburn fans will likely make the short trip up to Atlanta. Gus Malzahn will need to break in plenty of inexperienced players at the skill position, whereas on the other side of the ball new defensive coordinator Will Muschamp has plenty of returning weapons at his disposal. Fans of the Cards are hoping quarterback Will Gardner can stay healthy in 2015 after being injured twice last year. I think Louisville keeps this one closer than expected. (*Editors note: Reggie Bonnafon is likely to be the starter at QB for U of L with Gardner as his backup.)
Prediction: Auburn 30, Louisville 21
Steen:
Both teams will be working in a crop of new starters and given it’s the first game of the season at a neutral (but pro-Auburn) venue, this could be a rather sloppy game. The Louisville defense coached by Todd Grantham is quite good and one of the better units in the ACC, including former Georgia safety Josh Harvey-Clemons, meaning new Auburn QB Jeremy Johnson will need to keep his potential mistakes at a minimum. Auburn still has a superior offense however with Duke Williams a target for Johnson, and their Malzahn spread rushing attack good at chewing clock and getting first downs. Presuming the Auburn defense holds their end of the bargain, look for Louisville’s uncertainty at QB and in the passing game generally to prove too much to overcome, resulting in an Auburn win.
Prediction: Auburn 38, Louisville 24
Mike:
This is probably the game with the most questions this week. Louisville’s defense only returns four starters, and none in the secondary. However, don’t forget that Todd Grantham has schemed against Auburn and Gus Malzahn before as Defensive Coordinator at Georgia. The Cardinals also bring back only five on offense, but that includes quarterback (Gardner), running back and the second-leading receiver. Auburn comes in with high expections, a ton of talent and new Defensive Coordinator Will Muschamp. And Atlanta is a short drive from the Plains. Expect Auburn to start slow but put the game away late as Jeremy Johnson and company get in a groove after halftime
Prediction: Auburn 34, Louisville 20
#15 Arizona State vs. Texas A&M (Saturday 9/5/15 7:00 P.M. EST in Houston, Texas)
Line: Texas A&M by 3.5
Yesh:
Mike Bercovici is back this year to lead a Sun Devils offense that should again be competitive in the Pac 12. This will be a very good early test for John Chavis’ new defense in College Station. I think Arizona State just has too much talent for Texas A&M to win this game, but the Aggies can certainly keep it close.
Prediction: Arizona State 41, Texas A&M 34
John:
This is another neutral site contest that will feel like a road game for one of the teams. Aggie fans should be well represented at NRG Stadium in Houston for the first-ever meeting between these two programs. Historically, ASU has struggled both in non-home openers (1-6) and against the SEC (3-9). I think A&M’s Kyle Allen wins the quarterback battle over the Sun Devils Mike Bercovici and leads the Aggies to victory.
Prediction: Texas A&M 31, Arizona State 27
Steen:
I see this as the game of the week given it’s two teams with a lot of potential who are closely matched and would kickstart their season hopes with a neutral site win. Texas A&M should be ranked with stars like Myles Garrett, one of the best defensive ends in America, on their squad, and QB Kyle Allen is capable of leading a top 10 team, especially with a diversity of receiving targets including the speedy, Speedy Noil. Auburn has gotten all the hype in the SEC, but A&M finished with the same record last year, they have a solid coach in Sumlin, and have reloaded in recruiting. Overall, I expect a good season for the Aggies, but I’m going with a more experienced and rather clutch Sun Devil team that has a good QB in Mike Bercovici, who likely should have been the starter last year based off performance, and a running unit led by senior D.J. Foster, and mix-up pace back Kalen Ballage that can break off big runs, and punish defensive units with hard earned yards. Expect a high scoring shoot-out with two great offenses, but I see ASU getting the better of these two teams, perhaps with a late field goal.
Prediction: Arizona State 48, Texas A&M 42
Mike:
I really don’t know who’s going to win this, but you should take the over in this game. 66 is a gift for the over/under. ASU averaged 37+ points and A&M averaged 34+ points in 24. Both teams are bringing some great offensive weapons back, although A&M is probably bringing back a little more talented experience and have possibly the nation’s best receiving corps. It’ll be interesting to see what effect the hiring of John Chavis has early for A&M. Both teams traditionally start strong. And Houston is practically a home game for A&M,
Prediction: Texas A&M 42, Arizona State 41
Texas at #11 Notre Dame (Saturday 9/5/15 7:30 P.M. EST in Notre Dame, Indiana)
Line: Notre Dame by 9.5
Yesh:
Brian Kelly has an experience-rich team in South Bend who have the talent to do great things if they can keep it all together (and not turn the ball over). Charlie Strong is making strong statements in Texas, but they haven’t yet translated into results on the field. That won’t change this week.
Prediction: Notre Dame 28, Texas 10
John:
A lot of people are touting the Irish as dark horse CFP contenders if they can navigate a fairly difficult schedule. It begins this weekend in South Bend under the lights in the 11th all-time meeting between these two storied programs and first since 1996. It’s a series that Notre Dame has dominated, having lost just twice to the Longhorns with the last one coming in 1969. I’m not expecting much different Saturday night with ND quarterback Malik Zaire looking like the real deal and a defense with ten returning starters that should be much improved
Prediction: Notre Dame 34, Texas 23
Steen:
A brick wall offensive line and a quality running game led by Tarean Folston should aid Malik Zaire’s first season as the full time starter for the Irish. This experienced team got off to a hot start last year and then promptly collapsed down the stretch after a brutal last second loss to Florida State, that said, having survived trial by fire, Notre Dame should be able to notch a relatively routine home win over a big name school in Texas that is going to have an uphill climb to 8 wins this year and may just scrape to a bowl game. Tyrone Swoopes was named the starter for a young and inexperienced Charlie Strong squad that is likely a year or two away from competing in the Big 12. The defense is also young for the Longhorns, and going on the road for a night game in South Bend isn’t the best environment for young players, I’d be shocked if Texas was able to keep this one close.
Prediction: Notre Dame 38, Texas 13
Mike:
I’m big on Notre Dame this year. I think Brian Kelly is finally comfortable in South Bend and they return a ton of talent on defense. The quarterback play will be improved with Zaire under center. They return top two rushers and top four receivers. Texas, meanwhile, is still struggling to get back to where they want to be. There is some unhappiness throughout the Longhorn athletic department and that includes the assistant coaches. They do return some talent, but lose six of their top seven tacklers and QB Swoopes is still inconsistent with a 2014 TD-to-INT ratio of 13:11. This one is never close.
Prediction: Notre Dame 34, Texas 10
#3 Alabama vs. #20 Wisconsin (Saturday 9/5/15 8:00 P.M. EST in Arlington, Texas)
Line: Alabama by 10.5
Yesh:
This game is so hard to predict because there are so many question marks about both teams. Wisconsin is rebuilding their always-stout offensive line, which should have a lot of trouble against Alabama’s experienced front seven. Bama, on the other hand, has basically an entire offense to replace. This matchup will come down to whether Wisconsin can control the edge early and force Alabama to spread out, leaving the middle of the field open as the game goes on.
Prediction: Alabama 24, Wisconsin 21
John:
The last college football game played at “Jerry World” in Arlington, TX decided the first ever College Football Playoff. The Crimson Tide are intent on getting there in 2015 after having their championship hopes dashed by Ohio State in the semifinals last year. The quarterback situation remains up in the air and head coach Nick Saban has been pretty tight lipped about who he’ll start against the Badgers. Despite the uncertainty, I think a motivated Tide looking reassert SEC dominance over the Big Ten rolls fairly comfortably against a Wisconsin team with a new coach and just 11 returning starters on both sides of the football.
Prediction: Alabama 42, Wisconsin 20
Steen:
Wisconsin is unlikely to win this game simply because their passing attack is in the bottom half of FBS teams. Cory Clement isn’t really a downgrade from the elite Melvin Gordon of last season for the Badgers at running back, but short of being a wishbone team, your entire offense can’t be based off the ground game against such a defensively sound and physically imposing team like Alabama.
We may see two, even three quarterbacks for the Crimson Tide in this opening game, and like last season against West Virginia, all the pressure is on Alabama in a practical home game, and Wisconsin has little to lose. Their defense should be able to hold up for a while but look for the Derrick Henry/Kenyon Drake one-two punch for Alabama, along with an improved secondary perhaps forcing 1 or more INTs from the arm of Joel Stave, to seal the deal and give Nick Saban one more non-conference feather in his cap in a national primetime opener. This will be trial by fire for Paul Chryst in his first game as the Badgers coach.
Prediction: Alabama 28, Wisconsin 17
Mike:
Talk about teams with questions coming into the season. Alabama still hasn’t named a starter at quarterback and lost All-American Amari Cooper. Wisconsin has a new coach and lost Melvin Gordon, who rushed for twice as many yards as returning QB Joel Stave threw for last year. And Stave had a 9-to-10 TD-to-INT ration in 2014. That won’t cut it against an Alabama defense that promises to be better than last year. Expect Alabama to work through a slow first half and then put Wisconsin away – much like their opener last year in Atlanta against West Virginia – late in the game.
Prediction: Alabama 27, Wisconsin 13
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