One of the most fascinating aspects of watching an entire NBA seasons is seeing a player grow and blossom into a fantastic asset to his team. When a player really works on his weaknesses in the offseason, the results are clearly visible on the court. During this NBA offseason, general managers across the league carefully examined which players on expiring contracts showed drastic improvement from the prior season. Many players, like Jimmy Butler, deserved a max contract because of consistent two-way play. There is no question in any GM’s mind that Butler will continue to improve his game. Unfortunately, some players undergo a regression in production. Kevin Love and Deron Williams, for example, are players who regressed tremendously last season and need a desperate bump in production this season.
Predicting the All-Regression Team for the 2015-2016 NBA Season
I have exposed the top candidates for my All-Regression team in the form of a basic NBA starting line up. Each of the following players enjoyed success in the 2014-2015 campaign, but I expect different results in the upcoming season.
Point Guard: Damian Lillard
2014-2015 Significant Statistics: 21 points, 6.2 assists, 43% field goal percentage, 20.7 PER
LaMarcus Aldridge’s departure to the San Antonio Spurs was the final and crucial blow to the Trail Blazers’ hopes for a return to the playoffs. After finishing last season first in the Northwest division, it is surprising to see how different this year’s roster is. Four out of the five starters are gone, leaving only Damian Lillard and his max contract worth 120 million dollars. Without a foundation in place for the upcoming season, Lillard’s averages are guaranteed to regress. Last season, Lillard didn’t command so many double teams because of Aldridge’s presence in the post combined with the three point shooting prowess of Wesley Matthew and Nic Batum. Now that Mo Harkless and Gerald Henderson are the team’s 2nd and 3rd offensive options (Google it if you don’t believe me), Lillard will be forced to take some ugly and forced shots. That average 43 percent field goal percentage will surely read about 39 percent at the end of this season. By my count, Lillard is the 6th best point guard in the Western Conference in terms of overall game behind Chris Paul, Westbrook, Stephen Curry, Mike Conley, and Tony Parker. He does not have the tools to lead a team of this caliber into the playoffs. Lillard needs to work on his passing ability this offseason, since it will be tough enough to find his below-average teammates open shots. There will be plenty of nights where Lillard scores in the mid 30’s and looks like one of the league’s best scorers, but we should judge Lillard by the team’s terrible win-loss record this season.
Shooting Guard: Monta Ellis
2014-2015 Significant Statistics: 18.9 points, 4.1 assists, 44% field goal percentage, 16.5 PER
After two solid years playing with Rick Carlisle’s Mavericks offense, the Pacers rewarded Ellis with a 4-year, 44 million-dollar contract. In need of an offensive spark coming off a disappointing season in which Paul George was injured, the Pacers figure Ellis can become the go to guy down the stretch of close games. Ellis has had an up and down career to say the least, but it looked like he was finally comfortable in Dallas playing alongside established veterans. Ellis will be responsible for running the majority of the Pacers’ pick and rolls this season, which might be a little difficult with Jordan Hill and Ian Mahinmi. I applaud Ellis for his vast improvement, but I just think his signing with the Pacers will be a case of a wrong fit. The Pacers needed to acquire a jump shooter this offseason, since they already have average guards like George Hill and Rodney Stuckey. They seem to be completely ignoring the three-point trend that has made so many teams like the Warriors so successful, as Ellis shot below 30 percent on 3’s last season. Paul George showed flashes last season of his 2013 form, but who knows if he’ll ever be the same. Expect Ellis to be doing too much ball handling which will increase his turnovers. If he stayed with the Mavs for a little bit less money, he would only see his averages increase positively. Instead, he will be competing for shots in the Pacers already-full backcourt.
Small Forward: DeMarre Carroll
2014-2015 Significant Statistics: 12.6 points, 1.3 steals, 48% field goal percentage, 15.9 PER
The Atlanta Hawks were one of the best stories last season because of their first place finish in the Eastern Conference without any true superstars on their roster. DeMarre Carroll played a large role in the success of the team under Mike Budenholzer. However, Masai Ujiri gave Carroll a 4-year, 60 million-dollar contract to play for the Raptors. Now, Carroll is a good player, but he only has two above-average NBA seasons on his resume. He’s a classic role player on a very good team, which might be exactly what the Raptors need. But he’s an obvious candidate for regression because it will take him some time to learn the Raptors offensive and defensive schemes. Carroll is undoubtedly a pure hustle player, which I’m sure Drake and the Raptors fans will immediately appreciate. He’ll be tasked with guarding the opposing team’s best wing, and contributing roughly 10 points a game. Carroll has never played under the pressure of a contract of this size, and its possible that could overwhelm in his first year. I don’t think Carroll is a make it or break it player for the Raptors this upcoming season, and we might look back on his contract in a year and a half and question Masai Ujiri as a GM. Carroll is a good player, but he’s just not worth so much money. Expect his numbers to drop overall in his first season representing “We the North.”
Power Forward: Pau Gasol
2014-2015 Significant Statistics: 18.5 points, 1.9 blocks, 11.8 rebounds, 49% field goal percentage, 22.7 PER
Right before the start of last NBA season, Bulls fans were groaning that they settled for Pau Gasol instead of Carmelo Anthony in free agency. But after Pau’s superb 2014-2015 campaign, the Bulls are poised to return to elite status in the East with a healthy roster. Gasol enjoyed his healthiest season since 2010 with the Lakers, playing and starting in 78 games. This season, in a new system led by new coach Fred Hoiberg, Gasol will almost certainly not put up the high averages that earned him All-Star status and 2nd team All-NBA. His 147 blocked shots ranked him seventh in the league, which tied his second best career mark set in 2005 with the Grizzlies. That number is an anomaly, due to the fact that Gasol has lost quickness and is not a rim protector to say the least. He’s more of a very good finesse player that can fluster defenses from the high post. The Bulls roster is made for Gasol, as Joakim Noah and Jimmy Butler do all of the defensive dirty work. Gasol is there to just grab the rebounds that he doesn’t have to work for and avoid foul trouble to facilitate the offense. Now 35, and entering his 15th season, Gasol will show signs of slowing down. His field goal percentage will be about the same and in line with his career because he takes very smart shots. But expect his rebounding and blocked shots totals to take a drastic dip, especially because teams will have a full year of film on Gasol playing defense for the Bulls.
Center: Hassan Whiteside
2014-2015 Significant Statistics: 11.8 points, 2.6 blocks, 63% field goal percentage, 26.2 PER
Perhaps the best story from the 2014-2015 season was the emergence of journey man Hassan Whiteside. Whiteside, 26, was a 2010 second round draft pick by the Sacramento Kings. Like everything else associated with the Kings, Whiteside’s tenure didn’t last too long. Last November, the Heat signed Whiteside due to their lack of front-court depth and the results were shocking. Playing in a substantial sample size of 48 games, Whiteside finished the season 6th in Player Efficiency Rating. His 26.26 rating beat out Chris Paul, LeBron James, Blake Griffin, and DeMarcus Cousins. To think that the Kings cut a player who ended up being more efficient than their franchise player is the Kings-iest thing I’ve heard all day. Whiteside put up some of the biggest stat lines all season, including a 14 point, 13 rebound, 12 block performance against the Bulls. Realistically, there is no way that Whiteside ends up in the top 10 in PER again. At best, he’s an above average center that protects the rim and rebounds consistently. We’ve seen players of that size explode onto the scene before, like Roy Hibbert and Rudy Gobert. For a big man to sustain those numbers is very difficult, especially throughout an entire NBA season. Whiteside played in only 48 games last season, which allows those monster individual game performances to make a big impact on his averages. Hassan Whiteside will not make or break the Heat’s success this season. They will rely on Chis Bosh and Dwyane Wade significantly more. Right now, with such a cheap contract, Whiteside is more of an asset than a game changer. Expect his shot blocking numbers to dip to around 2 per game, and for his field goal percentage to drop, as teams will study how to defend him and prevent easy dunks on pick and rolls.
