Tennessee Volunteers 2015 Expectations.
Every fan base has high expectations for their team going into a season. That’s part of the beauty and attraction of college football; the miracle season, the spectacular upset, the youthful exuberance of completely unfounded illogical expectations. In Knoxville, things are no different. Several commentators, and many more fans, are picking the Vols to win the SEC East Division this season. Some national voices even have Tennessee as a darkhorse contender for a spot in the College Football Playoff.
But what should the real expectations of the Tennessee team be for this upcoming season?
There’s a lot of hype surrounding the Vols, and rightly so. Butch Jones is entering his third season, which is the traditional season for coaches to start to gain traction and momentum if they are going to be successful at a school. Jones inherited a team that had a pretty dry cupboard in terms of talent and has quickly turned things around. Back-to-back consensus top-five recruiting classes have helped Tennessee close that gap faster than many expected. And last year’s stretch run – a dramatic comeback upset at South Carolina, a blowout against Kentucky and an impressive destruction of Iowa in the TaxSlayer Bowl – has created this hype. But the hype makes it hard to see clearly; to see the team and program as it really is. So let’s sift through the hype and see what Vol fans should really expect this season.
The most important thing the Vols have to do this year is continue their forward momentum as a program. Under Jones, the Vols have finished 5-7 and 7-6 (6-6 regular season with Bowl win). From a purely wins-and-losses perspective, the Vols need eight wins this season, either seven in the regular season with a bowl win or eight in the regular season and a loss in a high profile bowl. That’s the minimum to continue momentum. Anything less means that the Vols drop a game against one or two opponents that they should not have. And in the SEC, you have to beat the teams you should beat. Even with seven regular season wins, the Vols will likely have a loss against an East team that they shouldn’t lose to, either Florida, South Carolina or Missouri. But, with eight wins, Jones can continue to show momentum and improvement.
As Butch Jones continues to put together top-five nationally-ranked recruiting classes, including a Sunday commitment from the top overall quarterback in the 2017 class, Hunter Johnson, continuing to build momentum will keep those highly sought after recruits committed to Tennessee. A backwards or lackluster season might open the doors for poachers to come around some of Tennessee’s 2016 and 2017 recruiting targets.
We’ll take an in-depth look at the game-by-game expectations later this week in our schedule analysis.
This is where hype can really interfere with reality. Obviously it would be great for the Vols to get to nine or ten wins total, and they certainly have an opportunity to achieve that if they can stay healthy and catch a few breaks. But remember that this team is still young. This is still going to be a team playing a lot of true sophomores and freshmen. This is a team that is built to start contending in 2016. If they contend this year, that’s great but it shouldn’t be the expectation. Vol fans have to have hope for nine or ten wins but must understand that eight is really the mark on the wall.
The next expectation for this team is psychology. There’s two key components of this expectation. We’ve got to beat Florida. No way around it. For this program to move forward the Vols need to get out from the shadow of the Gators. A win in Gainesville will go a long way to getting the mindset of Vol Nation right again. Secondly, the young Vols team must learn how to win. Jones has mentioned this several times in the past, and the Vols showed composure and resolve last season. The South Carolina game was certainly an indicator of a team learning how to win. What must be different this season is this team going in and seizing control of games early against opponents they should beat and learning how to compete and have an opportunity to win late against more talented teams on paper, namely Oklahoma, Alabama and Georgia.
Jones has brought talent into Knoxville. If he can get the team’s psychology to match their talent level, they have a chance to take the next step.
The Vol program should also expect to find their long-term identity this season. They’ve survived on a “rebuilding” and “top recruiting” identity for the past two years, but that is a short-term identity. Everyone knows that Nick Saban is a great recruiter, but Alabama’s current identity revolves more around year-in and year-out competitiveness at the highest levels. Tennessee needs to find their long term identity this season so that they can get comfortable with it going forward. Will it be based on a high-powered offense or dominant defense? Will their identity be finesse or power? Technique or braun?
Clearly, this is tied with the aforementioned psychology expectations.
Vol fans should expect Jones to try and establish a very balanced identity for this team. One that is well-rounded, with options everywhere. On offense, a one-two running attack with Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara. A dual-threat quarterback in Josh Dobbs. Big receivers (North, Malone), possession receivers (Howard, Smith) and deep threats (Pearson and North). Expect the defense to be similar. Defensive backs that can play on the edge, in the nickel or in run support. Defensive ends that play like outside linebackers. And defensive linemen that are equally strong in run support and pass rush.
In short, expect Jones to try to establish an identity as a balanced program in all aspects. Balanced on the field. Even-keeled in mindset, not getting too wrapped up in the hype and not getting too deflated from a loss (as can happen to young teams). A team that likes to have fun and play with energy but is mature and responsible and conducts themselves in a manner that represents the program well.
Of course, if it were easy, we’d already be there.
This is what Vol fans should expect from the upcoming season. Forward momentum with eight or more wins, getting back to the right mindset by beating Florida and looking competitive with the best teams in the nation, and finding a balanced identity across the program.
And with the season only two weeks away, our expectations will quickly fade into reality, for better or for worse.
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