Since the onset of the 2015 season, the AL East has been characterized as mediocre, and as one of the worst divisions in baseball. It may, then, be surprising to some that, at this point in the season, the only division in baseball with more playoff teams than the AL East is the juggernaut that is the NL Central. The Central is represented by the St. Louis Cardinals, who have the best record in baseball, the Pittsburgh Pirates, who possess the third best record, and the Chicago Cubs, who have won the fourth most games in baseball. The New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays are currently in the playoffs, and the Orioles sit only a half game back of overtaking the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim as the last AL playoff team, which would make them the third AL East representative. Further evidence that the AL East is much better than people think is the fact that the Rays are only three games back in the wild card, giving the AL East the most teams in baseball that are in contention for the playoffs.
Playoff Chances For The AL East
The AL East could easily wind up with three teams playing October baseball, but could just as easily wind up with only one team having a chance to win the World Series. Each of the teams has strengths that could propel them into the playoffs, just as each of the four teams possesses weaknesses that could cause them to be watching the playoffs from home. The Orioles have the easiest schedule of their contemporaries, possessing a .498 strength of schedule compared to the Yankees, Rays, and Jays who all have a .501 SOS. But with a pitching staff that owns the third-ranked ERA between the four teams and an offense that is third in slugging and on-base the, Orioles might not have what it takes to outlast their competition. Their pitching staff just doesn’t have the same quality as the other three teams they are battling in the division. However, the experience of their key players in playoff chases, as well as the experience of manager Buck Showalter, could offset their weaknesses.
The Rays are perhaps even worse off than the Orioles, possessing the worst slugging percentage (.390) and on-base percentage (.309) of the four teams. They are the furthest away from the playoffs as of today. The bright spots for the Rays are their 3.61 ERA, which is the best of the four teams, and 1.20 WHIP, which is also the best. Offsetting their good starting pitching, led by the outstanding Chris Archer, is the terrible year the Rays have had closing out games; their 16 blown saves are only “bested” by Toronto’s 18. The Rays anemic offense just can’t hack it when put alongside the lineups of the Orioles, Yankees, and Jays. Even when they are in games, their bullpen often coughs up the lead late.
The Blue Jays have the second best on-base percentage (.328) in the AL and the best slugging percentage (.440), and have probably the best lineup in the entire league. Thanks to their blockbuster trade for David Price, the Jays now have a top-flight ace and their 3.80 ERA only trails the Rays in the division. The Jays have been on fire since their acquisition of Troy Tulowitzki; they have slowed down of late, but for them that means winning “only” seven of their last ten. The Jays are three-up in the wild card and only 0.5 games back in the division, and with their offense and David Price they have a very good chance to play in October. Their Achilles heels are their lack of anyone who resembles a quality closer and a sub-par manager with a lack of playoff experience.
The Yankees, who have led the AL East for much of the season, are benefited most by their bullpen, featuring Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances, which may be the best in baseball, and their lineup, which only trails the Jays in terms of quality inside the division. Thanks to monster years from Mark Teixeira, A-Rod, and Brett Gardner, the Yankees have plenty of offensive firepower. Playing with the short porch of right field at Yankee Stadium helps, too. However, with a mediocre starting staff after Masahiro Tanaka, whose elbow problems could flare up at any time, the Yankees’ mediocre pitching could cost them the division. But, baring a collapse or a team like the Orioles, Twins, or Rangers catching fire, the Yankees should at the very least capture a wildcard spot come season’s end. Joe Girardi also has a ring on his resume and is probably the best manager of the four featured by the teams in contention for the playoffs in the AL East.
When it is all said and done, I believe the Yankees and Blue Jays will both make the playoffs, with the Orioles just missing out after being bested by the duo of Mike Trout and Albert Pujols, although Adam Jones and Manny Machado will give them a run for their money. The Angles’ pitching, led by Garrett Richards and Hector Santiago, is just better than what the Orioles have to offer down the stretch. Regardless of how the playoff race shakes out, apart from the Red Sox, the AL East has far exceeded expectations this season.
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