Suffice it to say that for Columbus Crew SC and teams across Major League Soccer, it’s beginning to feel more and more like crunch time.
Not only is everyone firmly past the halfway point of 2015, but many teams now have less than ten games remaining in their respective regular seasons. Those at the top of the conference will be looking to consolidate their position in the hopes of coming away with the Supporters’ Shield when all’s set and done. The middle of the road teams are hoping they can continue racking up points in order to keep those sides on the outside looking in playoff-wise from nipping at their feet.
After the club’s 2-2 draw in their inaugural match with New York City FC Wednesday, the Black and Gold currently find themselves third by themselves in the Eastern Conference with 35 points. Though only four points behind the New York Red Bulls for the second spot, Crew SC has two less games in hand on a team playing some great soccer lately. Both Toronto FC and the Montreal Impact, occupying the fifth and sixth spots in the East, have a combined six more games to play than Columbus and thus increased opportunities to make up ground in the standings.
A Daunting Finish to the Season for Columbus Crew SC
If the club wants to finish the year on a high note for the second consecutive year, they’ll have to navigate a home stretch of the season that can aptly be described as a gauntlet. Nine regular season games remain. Only four, including Saturday’s clash with Sporting Kansas City, are at home. Seven of those nine contests are against teams who currently occupy a playoff position.
If you’re at all familiar with the overarching storylines surrounding Crew SC’s season this year, perhaps the most significant (and most maddening for fans) is the club’s road form. The Black and Gold have a 2-6-4 record away from MAPFRE Stadium which is 15th in MLS if you take into account tiebreakers the league uses to determine playoff spots. Among the 12 teams who would make the playoffs if the season ended today, only Montreal and New England have obtained fewer road points.
With five of nine away games to close out the year, that form will have to change if the club is to either mount an effective challenge to get one of the two opening round byes in the playoffs or at the very least to maintain its stranglehold on third and avoid getting bumped down the order. Keep in mind that the fifth and sixth seeds in this year’s playoffs will have to travel for that one-off game to determine who advances to the conference semifinals. Attaining road points will be vital if Crew SC don’t want to fall into one of those positions.
My colleague at LWOS Joseph Goldstein put together a nice graphical analysis of what we can expect from here on out within both conferences. I’m going to focus on the East for the purposes of this discussion.
He basically took a look at each team’s points per game at home and on the road against both Eastern and Western Conference foes. Taking into account remaining games (against teams from both conferences), he then came up with an expected points per game model for each team. You can see the results below.
If such a scenario came to fruition, we would be looking at a playoff rematch with the Revs, only in this case Crew SC would be playing for their playoff lives in Foxborough in a win-or-go-home format. It’s a situation that will only be averted if the club gets results on the road similar to their last foray away from home, a 2-1 comeback win against Colorado on August 9th.
With everything discussed above, the room for error is closing as the playoffs grow nearer and nearer.
Crew SC News and Notes
- The Black and Gold face Sporting Kansas City on Saturday evening in the only regular season meeting between the two clubs.
- The prolific tandem of forward Kei Kamara and right winger Ethan Finlay have either scored a goal or tallied an assist a combined 44 times in 2015.
- Sporting will be missing midfielder Benny Feilhaber for the game after he was sent off in the 71st minute of the team’s 5-0 defeat at the hands of the San Jose Earthquakes on Wednesday for denying a goal-scoring opportunity.
- Feilhaber’s vision and creativity will be missed for the visitors; he currently has eight goals and 13 assists for SKC which accounts for 26.92 percent of the club’s total goals and assists.
- Feilhaber aside, Crew SC will be facing an SKC team possessing one of the top defensive work rates in the league; their 86.3 recoveries+interceptions per game is second in the league; Columbus is 17th in this category with 70.88 per game.
- The Black and Gold currently lead the league in chances created per game (11.08) while SKC are eighth (10.04).
- If the club can find the net Saturday, Crew SC will have scored in their 23rd consecutive home game while will set a new franchise record.
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