Since June 1st, only two teams in Major League Soccer have a better record than the Portland Timbers. Only the New York Red Bulls and LA Galaxy, with 22 points, have earned more than the Timbers’ 20 points, as Portland has gone 6-2-3 over that stretch.
Despite the run of good results, this recent stretch, which now includes three straight shutouts, and consecutive 1-0 victories, has not felt like a great stretch for Portland. Despite being just four points off the top of the Western Conference, with a game in hand, something doesn’t feel right about the Timbers form.
While the results have for the most part been solid for the Timbers, the play on the field has been much less so, and a few specific results have been very concerning. There was that four game stretch at the end of July through the beginning of August where the Timbers lost two and drew two in league play, while also being knocked out of the U.S. Open Cup. There’s the fact that the Timbers last three losses in MLS have been with a combined 12-1 scoreline against.
Even Portland’s 1-0 victory over Real Salt Lake last weekend had the feel of stealing three points. The Timbers were dominated for much of the game, conceding 65% of possession, and giving up 15 shots. While some of this was tactical, sitting back and trying to attack on the counter, the first half especially was discouraging. Though their play improved as the game went on, one feels the Timbers could have done more against the team sitting second from the bottom of the Western Conference.
That said, the Timbers got the win, and given the tactics they employed, maybe their recent form is a sign that Caleb Porter is beginning to take a more pragmatic approach to each game, prioritizing results over style. It wouldn’t be the first time, as Porter did much the same thing in 2013, when the Timbers ended the season on an eight match win streak, scoring zero or one goal in five of their last eight games and registering six shutouts.
It’s been a very up and down season in Portland and after a slow start, the team has rebounded, and finds itself fourth in a very tight Western Conference playoff race, but with many questions still remaining.
Among the questions that must be answered, here are three questions the Portland Timbers must answer as they hit the home stretch in MLS play.
1. Can the Timbers raise their level of play against the top teams in MLS?
The Timbers last nine regular season games include visits to Seattle, Columbus, Los Angeles, and Real Salt Lake, with Sporting Kansas City coming to Portland twice and New York Red Bulls visiting once. That’s six games against current playoff teams, and one in a place (Rio Tinto Stadium) where Portland has historically struggled.
The Timbers have been very good at home lately, and quite bad on the road, and they’ll need to raise their level of play both at home and on the road if they’re going to finish the season strong with this difficult run in.
2. What is Lucas Melano’s role?
When Melano was announced in mid July there was a lot of excitement surrounding his acquisition, as well as hope that the Timbers had finally found someone who could be a consistent threat up top, both now and for years to come. While Melano has shown flashes of his brilliant potential so far in green and gold, he has yet to score and has been a bit inconsistent. To be fair, he’s been dangerous when he has come off the bench, and has only had one start. In his first start, on the road against Real Salt Lake, the Timbers had so little possession that Melano was often left on an island, so he can’t really be blamed completely for a lack of production so far.
However, the Timbers need goals, and while Melano clearly has talent, he may need more time to settle in, so it might be better to not rely on him until next year. While Fanendo Adi seems to score a brace or not score at all, he’s been the Timbers most dangerous forward this year, and he could be the best option for the rest of the year.
Whatever the decision is, the Timbers are probably better off picking a role for Melano (and Adi), and sticking with it. Whether that means regular starts or minutes off the bench remains to be seen. Maybe Melano even starts on the wing and Adi up top so they can both play.
3. Will the real Diego Valeri please stand up?
Whether he is still recovering from off-season ACL surgery or the various knocks that have plagued him since his return, or it’s something else, something isn’t quite right with Diego Valeri. Valeri’s offensive contributions are down this year, creating 2.14 chances per game this season, compared to 3.06 last season. His scoring is also down significantly, with just two goals in 14 games, or one every seven games, compared to 11 goals in 33 appearances, or one every three games, in 2014. His passes completed per 90 minutes is also down slightly from last year.
That’s not to say Valeri has been bad, just that he hasn’t been near the level Portland fans have come to expect and the Timbers have come to rely on. If Portland is going to push on and actually make a playoff run, rather than just make the playoffs and then bow out, Valeri will need to return to his next level status. The Timbers need Valeri to be great, not just good.
If Valeri finds his 2014 form, it would greatly help Melano settle in offensively, and would probably help Darlington Nagbe put up more numbers as well. If Valeri finds his form, the Western Conference better watch out, because the Timbers defense is playing great right now, and if the offense can match the defense, the Timbers will be dangerous in the playoffs.
