After the euphoria of his second win of the season in Hungary, Sebastian Vettel straight away talked of his title chances for the second half of the season, and said Ferrari will try to “make the impossible possible”. With a 42-point gap to championship leader Lewis Hamilton, who is in the fastest car at the moment, it does seem that the German’s title chances are impossible. A deeper look into it though shows that not all is lost for the Scuderia, and that the impossible is possible.
There are two main factors that will determine whether or not Ferrari and Vettel can have a chance for the title. First of all is Ferrari. Hungary showed that the car has good race performance, and that, if ahead of Mercedes, they are difficult to close up to and overtake. The key is then getting ahead of Mercedes in the race. The qualifying has shown throughout the season that this is easier said than done. Mercedes have got pole position in all of the ten grand Prix weekends, and have eight front row lockouts. Upgrades are key to close the gap to the Silver Arrows, and overhaul them. Ferrari are bringing an upgrade to Spa for Sauber, and it is believed they will have their own upgrades. They will be hoping these close the gap further, and aid them in overtaking them Mercedes once the F1 circuit heads east, and to tracks that bring them closer together in performance.
Sebastian Vettel: The Impossible Is Possible
The second factor is Mercedes. Everyone knows that at the current standings, they have the outright fastest car out there. They have won eight of the ten first races, and comfortably lead the drivers’ and constructors’ championships. However, they are not a team that is without incident or are flawless. Last year the team nearly imploded when the title rivalry between their two drivers reached boiling point on several occasions. The pivotal moment came in Spa, the next race up, when Rosberg clipped Hamilton’s car and punctured his tyre. Ever since that moment, serenity has arrived at Mercedes, and the has been little incident between the pair. In the second half of the season, and there only being 21 points between them, this could change, and the tension may boil over and affect performances and results. If that happens, they may well take points off each other, allowing Vettel to sneak in. Kimi Raikkonen won the title with Ferrari in 2007 in similar circumstances. He was 17 points behind the McLaren tit;e-fighting pair of Hamilton and Fernando Alonso with two races to go, but still finished a point ahead in the last race.
The other concern for Mercedes is their recent getaways. They have consecutive lost places from the grid at the start, in Silverstone and Hungary, and still seem unsure why that is the case. The new start procedures coming into affect in Spa will only add to these concerns, and if they can’t get to the solution to this issue, then they may see more races like Hungary.
In summary, the odds on the title will be one of the Mercedes pair. They have a comfortable gap to the Ferrari of Vettel, and have the quickest car. However, this is Ferrari, and they have a history of in-season development. They also have Vettel, a four-time champion, who is arguably the driver of the year going by the first ten races. He famously won his third title in 2012, whilst 42 points behind the current championship leader at the time coming out of the summer break. That the same number of points behind the lead driver, at the same stage of the season, that he is now. It makes for an intriguing second part of the season, and only a fool would count out Ferrari and Vettel.
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