When NYCFC went into Wednesday night’s game with the Columbus Crew, there were many who were convinced that if the Boys in Blue didn’t take three points out of Mapfre Stadium, they could kiss their hopes for the playoffs goodbye.
Really? Playoffs? You’re worried about the playoffs? Already?
Well, yes, because, as my friends like to remind me, it’s later than I think, and NYCFC are down to the last nine games of their inaugural season. And while they’re in a numerical tie with Montreal and Orlando, because the Impact still have an insane four games in hand (note to fantasy soccer fans – they’ve got a TRIPLE gameweek coming up in the middle of September), NYCFC would be on the outside looking in if the playoffs started today.
So what do they have to do to make sure they’re not?
It’s a little tricky to calculate, of course, because the conference has two more teams than it did last year. Thus, coming up with an exact number is highly speculative. But then again, when has that ever stopped me?
Let’s look at the last couple of seasons. Last year, Sporting KC snagged the final spot in the East with 49 points, and the Union sat home with 42 points in sixth place. Of course, this year, the sixth place team will make the playoffs. So does that mean that all NYCFC need are another 14 points?
If so, their path to the promised land is not unrealistic. They would only have to beat Columbus, Toronto and San Jose (all at Yankee Stadium), draw with DC and New England (away), and lose to Los Angeles, Vancouver and Dallas (both also away).
But do we really think 42 points is going to get it done? Because it hasn’t in the past. In 2013, the Fire had 49 points and missed the playoffs. In 2011 they had 43 and missed them. And in 2012, the Columbus Crew had 52 points and missed out.
52 points? Good grief.
If you average all the sixth place finishes in the Eastern Conference from the past four years (an admittedly arbitrary sample), you wind up with 46.5 points. So, what would NYCFC have to do to get 47 points?
In short, get a little lucky.
They’d have to steal a point in Dallas – which is not out of the question (they just stole one in Columbus) especially since they’ll play the Hoops after a two week rest (good news for Pirlo, Lampard and Villa). They would also have to turn a draw in RFK into a win, which might be doable; by that point DC United will probably have already clinched a spot and could be resting players. And then they’d have to beat the Revolution in Yankee Stadium – and while New England should have Jermaine Jones on the field, NYCFC could have a full house in the stands adding their very vocal support.
So it’s doable. Maybe.
But what those two scenarios are based on is the idea that just finishing sixth will get NYCFC into the playoffs. Maybe it won’t. Maybe the position we need to be looking at in the table is fifth, since that’s the team that, until this season, has held the final playoffs spot.
So, averaging the fifth place finishes in the Eastern Conference from the past four years, you wind up with 49.25 points. Let’s call that 49. What would NYCFC have to do to win that spot?
They’d have to get good. Really, really good.
If they lose to LA in LA on Sunday, which I don’t think would surprise anyone, and if they lose to Vancouver in Vancouver (also, not a shocking prediction), then they would have to beat every other team they face, only two of which are not currently qualified for the playoffs.
Whew.
But it is possible. With each passing game you’ve got Villa and Pirlo playing better together. With each passing game you’ve got Poku drawing more attention and scoring more goals. You’ve got a backline that’s finally starting to settle down, communicate, and, dare I say it, “gel”. And of course you’ve got that wild card of Frank Lampard just sitting there. Will he get healthy? Will he find his place in the team? Will his teammates figure out how to use him? Will he find his form? All legitimate questions, none of which any of us have the answers to right now.
Will NYCFC make the playoffs? I don’t know. I know it’s still in their hands, though. And the difficulty in soccer, as in life, is the choice. But I am certain that it is possible. As I am that the stress of the next nine games will probably find me relaxing at Camarillo by season’s end.
Photo by Rick Yeatts/Getty Images
