Last year, we set forward what a Group of 5 team likely needs in order to reach the College Football Playoff. We were operating under the assumption that the CFP selection committee would operate in a more or less similar fashion to the way pollsters have always operated.
With a year of knowledge behind us, we can judge to what extent that was true. And the answer, after Year 1, is that we really can’t tell. The committee didn’t do anything dramatically different than how polls have always operated. On the other hand, they went out of their way to make a few points as to what precisely they are trying to emphasize–though Jeff Long did not do a good job of explaining precisely what those points were. Florida State dropped slowly throughout the season to show that either style points matter or, at the very least, that an extreme lack of style points matters. TCU dropped from #3 to #6 on the final weekend of the season, either to show something about strength of schedule or something about a conference championship or something about head-to-head, or all three.
Can a Group of 5 Team Make the Playoff?
What we did learn about the Group of Five, though, is that the committee has zero sympathy for a “mid-major” team who don’t challenge themselves out of conference. We have no idea what the ceiling is for a mid-major, if any, but you do know that when you play the #128 nonconference schedule in the country like Marshall did last year, you will not be ranked until the very end of the season and even then you will be behind a 2-loss Boise State team (who played Ole Miss to open the season). We don’t know how the committee would have viewed an undefeated Boise State team last year. We do know that an 11-2 Boise State team was 12 spots behind the next 2-loss P5 team.
However, that tracks within normal voting patters and how pollsters have always viewed mid-majors. A 1-loss mid-major has a ceiling near the edge of the Top 10-15. A 2-loss mid-major’s ceiling has been around the Top 20. An undefeated mid-major, though, when coming off of a good prior season and playing a decent schedule, has had a maximum of the back half of the Top 10.
The one exception to these rules has often been Boise State (well, and TCU five years ago). Boise State came close to reaching the Top 2 in the BCS era and spent a good amount of time in the Top 5 during the Kellen Moore years. Boise has a name value that no other Group of Five team can really match. Of course, it took Boise years and a Fiesta Bowl win to get in the conversation. Then it took consecutive victories over Oregon (including a 2009 domination of the eventual Pac 10 champion) that really cemented Boise’s status as a non-mid-major in a mid-major world.
Of course, it just so happens that Boise State is the one Group of 5 team who meets many of the requirements we set out a year ago. They have name recognition, they are coming off a ranked season topped off by a major bowl win, and they are starting the season ranked and in the conversation. Their nonconference schedule is solid, playing two Power 5 teams and BYU. Boise might wish that Washington and Virginia are expected to be higher in their conferences, but they are still Power 5 teams.
In abstract, the dream for a Group of 5 team to make the playoff is doing what Boise State did in 2009–beat the champion of a Power 5 conference and then go undefeated. In the playoff era, the Pac 12 could not have honestly earned a bid in 2009 unless Boise also got one. If the Broncos want a near-automatic bid in to the playoff this year, they need Washington and Virginia to win the Pac 12 and ACC, respectively. Now, either of those are highly unlikely, let alone both of them. Of course, that is not Boise’s only path to the playoff, it is just the easiest (and most unlikely) one.
Boise State still will have a strength of schedule to be in the conversation this year. The Mountain West is not that bad a conference, and the Mountain Division in particular not lagging far behind several Power 5 divisions. Of course, it remains to be seen if the Mountain Division’s impressive teams (Boise, Air Force, Colorado State, and Utah State in particular) can keep that up this year. Either way, the Broncos’ SOS shouldn’t be so far behind that they are automatically out of the conversation like Marshall was last year.
Of course, the most important thing for any Group of 5 team trying to break through is if there aren’t enough real candidates from the power conferences. Boise State wants Washington and Virginia to do well, but they also need the other favorites to do poorly. Upsets and mayhem are a mid-major’s best friend. We have to see how the season plays out before we can really know what Boise State’s chances are, but if they go undefeated and get a bit of mayhem, their chances are not as poor.
There is one final thing that should be important to any Group of 5 team aiming for a playoff berth. If they can earn a Top 1-3 ranking the major polls, the committee will have little choice about putting them in. One thing that the CFP cannot afford is a split championship. It would undermine the whole purpose of having this playoff, which is intended to create “One True Champion”. Leaving out a #1 or #2 team (or even consensus #3), especially an undefeated one, puts the CFP in too much risk of seeing a split championship.
Enough about Boise State. Do any other Group of 5 teams have a chance at getting in the CFP this year? No one else is coming off the type of season or run that Boise State has. Northern Illinois has been trending in the right direction for the past few years, but their lack of bowl success is going to hold them back, even if they can have a season that would be deserving of it.
The other team that merits discussion is BYU. The Cougars might be technically a non-power team, but they play a schedule that would be competitive with many Power 5 teams. Their SOS is not at the level of Notre Dame’s, but they do play four good Power 5 teams (Nebraska, UCLA, Michigan, and Missouri), and three top Group of 5 teams, including Boise State, Utah State, and Cincinnati. If they run the table and get some mayhem in front of them, they will be in the conversation. They might not currently have the rankings clout that Boise State has (or the talent, though we’ll find out if that’s true on September 12th), but they have a schedule that will be hard to ignore if they run the table.
The other possibility that could get a Group of 5 team into the playoff, though it will not happen (but still needs to be mentioned) would be if a team can prove themselves by upsetting top Power 5 teams. For example, if Western Michigan runs the table that will include wins over both Ohio State and Michigan State. Or if Air Force can run the table in the Mountain West Mountain Division and a nonconference win over Michigan State. Like I said, it won’t happen, but it has to be mentioned that if a team like that can run the table it will be very hard to leave them out.
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