Today, we are going to take a quick glance at some series this weekend where there is some post-season hope at stake for both teams involved (as defined as having at least a 20% chance to make the post-season. We will give a quick glance at what’s at stake for both teams and highlight a player from each team who has recently been getting an increase in Fantasy Baseball attention. With that in mind, here is the 8-21-15 Waiver Wire Report.
San Francisco Giants (49.8% Chance) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (85.6% Chance)
What’s At Stake: The Giants are looking to gain ground in both the NL West and Wild Card Races. The Pirates are looking to solidify their spot in the post-season.
Player Spotlight:
Gregor Blanco, OF, San Francisco Giants
Blanco has had the strongest season of his career as he is hitting .295 with a 125 wRC+ and 11 SB. While he has played well this season, expectations need to be tempered on the Fantasy side of things. His .352 BABIP indicates that his AVG is higher than one could expect in the long-term. While he may provide some stolen bases and runs, he is still a .262 career hitter with limited power.
Pedro Alvarez, 3B,1B, Pittsburgh Pirates
Alvarez has been known to provide strong power totals but has historically been a liability with his batting average. While that has remained the case for much of this year, he is hitting .310 with seven HR since the All-Star Break which has helped improve his AVG to a career high of .255.
One question to ask is if this is a sign that Alvarez has taken the next step as a hitter?. There are some minor signs of evidence such as that this is the second straight season that his K% was in the 25-26% range (previously it had been around 30%) and that he has been hitting more line drives this season. While there is always going to be promise for power, in the long-term his batting average is not going to be very helpful.
Los Angeles Dodgers (75.7% Chance) vs. Houston Astros (82.3% Chance)
What’s At Stake: The Dodgers are trying to hold off the Giants for the NL West lead while the Astros are looking to hold off the Angels & Rangers in the AL West.
Player Spotlight:
Enrique Hernandez, 2B, SS, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Hernandez is having a solid season as he is hitting .304 with six HR. The question to ask is whether this production can be kept up in the long term? I’m not sold on him remaining a .304 hitter as he also has a .359 BABIP. However, he also did hit for some power in the minors (his season high in the minors was 13 in 2013), and has been hitting the ball hard as he has a Hard% of 34.1. If he had enough PA to qualify, this would rank him near players such as Robinson Cano, Carlos Gonzalez & Eric Hosmer. While none of these players are putting up off the charts power totals this year, his ability to hit the ball hard indicates that Hernandez is at least capable of giving you double digit HR totals for your middle infield.
Jed Lowrie, SS, Houston Astros
This season, Lowrie got off to a scorching start and displayed enough promise that he could be in for a career year. However, he also got injured early in the season and was forced to miss several weeks.
The good news is that he has returned to action. His 2015 numbers are still relatively strong due to said strong start. Going forward, he should keep his AVG in the .270 range (he’s hitting .267 this year and his BABIP is a few points below his career total).
However, I’m not as sold on him maintaining his early season power in the long term as his HR/FB rate this season is much higher than his career total. Still, he provides enough promise to help your team at shortstop.
Toronto Blue Jays (88.6% Chance) vs. Los Angeles Angels (56.5% Chance)
What’s At Stake: The Blue Jays are attempting to take back first place in the AL East and if that doesn’t work out, solidify their spot in the Wild Card game. The Angels are trying to catch the Astros to take the AL West lead. In addition, they are also heavily involved in the AL Wild Card Race.
Player Spotlight:
Johnny Giavotella, 2B, Los Angeles Angels
This season has represented Giavotella’s first extended opportunity for playing time. Thus far, he has put up modest numbers (.267 AVG, three HR , 2 SB). One thing that helps his team but not necessarily fantasy owners is that he does not strike out very much (12% K Rate).
However, he has played a bit better in August, putting up a .278 AVG. This raises the question of whether he could provide some fantasy value in the future. Despite a good month, he’s unlikely to be strong in the AVG department as his BABIP is already above his career totals.
In looking at his minor league numbers, it seems odd that his SB numbers this season are so low. As recently as last season, he stole 20 bases in the minors. It is possible (but not likely) that he could be a source of SB in the future.
Chris Colabello, 1B, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
Colabello is enjoying a strong season as he is hitting .324 with 11 HR and a 141 wRC+n. While Colabello appears to have improved overall as a hitter (his K% is 24.7 this year compared to over 30% each of the previous two seasons), he has also had luck on his side as he also has a .404 BABIP.
However, the power that he has displayed this season is more sustainable. In 2013, he hit a combined 31 HR with 24 of these coming in Triple-A and seven during his time with the Twins. One thing that indicates that he has some value, even when accounting for regression is that he has hit an increasing percentage of line drives this season.
Post-Season Odds Based on Teamrankings.com
Player stats found on Fangraphs
Numbers listed through 8/19/15
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