Who will be left out of the College Football Playoff in 2015?
In the history of decision-making, presumably around since the dawn of mankind, creating a College Football Playoff (CFP) with four spots for the top teams of the Power Five conferences has to rank as one of the greatest decisions ever. I know this seems a little counterintuitive, but follow me here. College football has always been rooted in unresolved competition.
Before 1968, national championships were awarded before bowls were even played. Who can forget Dennis Erickson’s post-season presser after one of the coaches voted undefeated Miami third. That vote caused Miami to split the championship with Washington. There’s been about forty major selectors for the national championship since 1936, when the Associated Press started awarding theirs.
So it only makes sense that the College Football Playoff would try to fit five conferences into four playoff spots. It’s rational irrationality. And don’t forget Notre Dame. Heaven help us if a one-loss Notre Dame is ever excluded from the playoffs. Jack Swarbrick might threaten to just shut college football down altogether. Or at least excommunicate the selection committee.
Irrationality brings us to this question: Who is most likely to get TCU-ed (or Baylor-ed if you like) this season? Let’s take a look at the chances.
Most likely (35% chance): ACC
Probably the most amazing take-away from the 2014 season was 12-0 Florida State being one play away from losing in five games. With Jameis Winston now in Tampa Bay and Dalvin Cook pending legal action, many people think this might be the year the Seminoles stumble in the regular season. The schedule doesn’t include Notre Dame this year, but Florida State does travel to Clemson, Georgia Tech and Florida. And Louisville comes to Tallahassee after a bye. Even with a bevy of four and five-star talent, only 11 total starters return (including Cook). As for Clemson, the path to a championship seems a little harder with non-conference games against Notre Dame (home) and South Carolina (away). Additionally, they have to play a Bobby Petrino offense on only four days preparation. Louisville and Georgia Tech both have high hopes of surprising people, but have preseason Top Ten out-of-conference opponents in their schedules.
The ACC is still suffering from a perspective of being a weak conference after Oregon boat-raced past Florida State in last year’s National Semifinal. After the first round of games, no one believed Florida State was better than either TCU or Baylor. If the ACC Champion isn’t undefeated at the end of the regular season, they will need some help from another conference champion and possibly help from a conference division runner-up (SEC West, Big 10 East, PAC-12 South) to get into the playoffs.
The Wild Card (30% chance): Notre Dame
Look, Notre Dame is going to be good this year. The defense returns ten starters from a unit that excelled for the first half of 2014. They replaced the turnover machine that was their previous quarterback Everett Golson (now at Florida State) with Malik Zaire. And you can be sure Brian Kelly will have them ready to play. With a heavy dose of ACC opponents, mixed in with top teams Stanford and USC, a one-loss Fighting Irish would have to merit serious consideration, regardless of the fact that they aren’t conference champions.
Of course, the committee might consider Notre Dame as part of the ACC, so a one-loss Notre Dame and a one-loss ACC Champion might cancel one another out. That’s why Notre Dame is really a wild card. And you would think that since Notre Dame plays Clemson and Georgia Tech in addition to Stanford and USC, they would have a tie-breaker with those teams if they were the ACC Champion.
The ACC must contend with both their weak conference reputation and the wild card of Notre Dame if they are to get back into the playoffs this year.
Next Most Likely (20% chance): SEC
Most people consider the idea of having a four-team playoff for the national championship without an SEC team to be ridiculous. But it’s not. I won’t get into comparing the conferences here, but suffice it say that the SEC isn’t in the same place it was at the end of 2012 with seven straight national champions. It looks pretty good that Ohio State and TCU and/or Baylor will be half of the CFP, and if a Pac-12 team ends with one loss, you have to think they are in as well.
When you look up and down the SEC West, it is entirely possible that no team survives that Division with one loss. And, if they do, they will still have to play the SEC East champion in Atlanta. I can easily see a two-loss SEC Champion this season. If that happens, is the committee willing to put a two-loss SEC Champion in the playoffs over a one-loss conference champion from the ACC, or a one-loss Notre Dame, or even a one-loss non-conference champion…say Baylor or Michigan State? Would they do that at the peril of furthering the “SEC Bias” narrative that has been so aptly constructed by SEC haters over the last few years? It’s a distinct possibility.
Maybe (11% chance): Pac-12
The Pac-12 suffers from a similar dilemma as the SEC. The Pac-12 South is loaded with talented teams. USC, UCLA, Arizona State and Arizona all have national aspirations. And the North still has Oregon and Stanford with high expectations this year. Will Oregon’s showing against Florida State last year, coupled with their image as either the best or second best conference earn a one-loss Pac-12 team a spot in the playoffs? Almost assuredly. A two-loss champion? Not necessarily, but they would probably only lose out to a two-loss SEC champion if they lost out to anyone.
Highly Unlikely (3.5% chance): Big Ten
The only chance of the Big Ten missing out is if Michigan State beats Ohio State and then both Ohio State and Michigan stumble again. If Ohio State and Michigan State finish the season with a combined four losses, then I think everyone will be shocked. I think it’s more likely that those two teams finish the season with one loss between them. The Big Ten probably has a better chance of getting two teams into the playoffs than the SEC has of getting one.
No Way (0.5%): Big 12
After last year’s debacle and TCU’s demolition of Ole Miss in the bowls, if TCU or Baylor go undefeated they will definitely get into the playoffs. Even if one of them has one-loss, as long as it’s to the other, they will almost assuredly get in. Conference strength of schedule metrics will fly right out of the selection committee’s windows. Only a major stumble by both TCU and Baylor will keep the Big 12 out of the College Football Playoffs this year.
The CFP Committee doesn’t start ranking teams until the middle of the season, but it’s not too early to start thinking about which conference might get left out of the playoffs this year. What do you think? Please share your thoughts below.
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