Playoffs, yes we are talking about playoffs and intertwining it with the Fantasy Baseball world. Today, we are going to take a quick glance at some series this weekend where there is some post-season hope at stake for both teams involved (as defined as having at least a 20% chance to make the post-season. We will give a quick glance at what’s at stake for both teams and highlight a player from each team who has recently been getting an increase in Fantasy Baseball attention and whether they are capable of helping down the stretch. We will be reviewing this every week from now until the end of the season. With that in mind, here is the 8-7-15 Waiver Wire Report
Giants (59.5% Chance) vs. Cubs (44% Chance)
What’s At Stake: Both of these teams are in a dog-fight for the second NL Wild Card Spot (the Giants come into Thursday with a ½ game lead. While the Giants have been playoff (and championship regulars this decade), the Cubs are striving for their first title since 1908. In addition to competing with each other, these teams will also have to fight off whoever finishes second in the NL East for the second wild card spot.
Jake Peavy, SP, San Francisco Giants
Peavy is scheduled to start Sunday’s series finale against the Cubs. He is coming off a strong start against the Braves on Tuesday where he pitched six innings gave up one run and struck out eight batters. While it is obvious that Peavy is not the elite pitcher he was early in his career with the Padres, his numbers are still respectable (3.77 ERA/3.87 FIP). While these are not elite numbers, they are still respectable and he has the talent to help your fantasy team down the stretch.
Dexter Fowler, OF, Chicago Cubs
Fowler has recently seen an increase in his ownership. In his first season with the Cubs, he has put up HR/SB numbers similar to his last few seasons but is only hitting .237. This batting average sells has actual ability short as his BABIP is 51 points below his career total. He has hit .265 in 18 games after the All-Star break which is more indicative of his actual talent level. This combined with steady but not spectacular contributions in HR & SB category make him a solid upgrade if available.
Dodgers (88.1% Chance) vs. Pirates (81.5% Chance)
What’s At Stake: The Dodgers are looking to hold on to their narrow lead in the NL West and the Pirates appear to be in line to keep what is turning out to be their regular spot in the NL Wild Card Game.
Player Spotlight:
Mat Latos, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Latos is scheduled to start Saturday’s game. Latos was part of the massive 13 player trade where the Dodgers strengthened their rotation and the Braves & Marlins did not appear get much in return. When Latos got traded to the Marlins last season, I thought it was a win-win for both teams. However, that turned out to be wrong.
On the surface, it appears that between performance and the nagging injury issues he has dealt with this season, Latos has taken a step backwards due to a 4-7 record and a 4.29 ERA. However, he has actually pitched quite well and has just been unlucky. His FIP is currently at 3.36 and K/9 of 7.63 while not as strong as earlier in his career, still represents a nice bounce back from last season. This could be a case where a change of scenery may propel him towards a hot streak down the stretch.
Francisco Cervelli, C, Pittsburgh Pirates
Cervelli has already set a career high in PA this season and he appears to be making the most of this opportunity. He is hitting .300 and has thrown in five HR (also a career high). When he started strong this season, I was skeptical that he could maintain this performance all season due to a high BABIP. However, he has continued to maintain the semblance of a strong performance.
In reality, he is closer to a .270 hitter (his BABIP is still 27 points above his career total) but if his numbers had held up so far, he may be one of those outliers that doesn’t experience regression this season. I just wouldn’t count on this performance repeating itself last year as some of his underlying numbers. For example, he has had a decrease in LD% this season which indicates that this performance level has a minimal chance of holding up over the next several seasons.
Blue Jays (68.6% Chance) vs. Yankees (90.8% Chance)
What’s At Stake: The Blue Jays have gone all-in and are looking for their first playoff appearance since 1993. While they hold a one game lead for the last Wild Card spot, this weekend serves as an opportunity to make up ground on the Yankees in the AL East. Currently, the Yankees lead the Blue Jays by 4 ½ games.
Marco Estrada, SP, RP, Toronto Blue Jays
Estrada is scheduled to start Sunday’s series finale against the Yankees. As a fan of the Brewers, I have had plenty of opportunity to watch Estrada pitch. While he did show some flashes of brilliance with the Brewers, he also gave up a lot of home runs too. When he got traded to the Blue Jays, I thought that his move to the AL East would be a disaster.
So far things have looked much better than expected as he is 9-6 with a 3.40 ERA/3.83 FIP. However, I would be wary of him keeping up this performance for a couple of reasons. First, his K/9 and BB/9 rates have trended in the wrong direction over the last couple of seasons. Also, his HR/FB rate is well below his career totals and in light of his history and his K/9 and BB/9 rates, I’m skeptical of him keeping up these relatively strong numbers in the long term.
Chase Headley, 3B, New York Yankees
Gone are the days of 2012 when Headley was a fantasy monster, hitting 31 HR and stealing 17 bases. Overall, he has put up average numbers offensively for the Yankees (102 wRC+). However, that obscures the fact that he’s been on an extended hot streak.
Once you get past the hot streak, you have someone who will hit somewhere around .275 and break into double digits in the HR category. You could do a lot better than Headley at 3B and you could also do much worse.
Orioles (36.8% Chance) vs. Angels (70.1% Chance)
What’s At Stake: This series is going to be highly crucial in the AL Wild Card Race. Currently, the Angels hold the first Wild Card spot and the Orioles are one game out of the second Wild Card spot.
Kevin Gausman, SP, Baltimore Orioles
Gausman missed a portion of the season due to injury but seems to be building upon his potential. In 14 games (6 starts) he has respectable overall numbers (3.97 ERA/3.93 FIP) and has seen his K/9 and BB/9 rates improve from last year. The one thing that makes it look like Gausman could be on the cusp of a breakout is that the percentage of time that he has induced soft contact has increased substantially (17.2% to 30.6%).
Matt Shoemaker, SP, Los Angeles Angels
This season, Shoemaker has taken a step back in overall numbers as he is 5-7 with a 4.01 ERA/4.08 FIP. One thing that sticks out with him is while his K/9 numbers are steady; he has walked more batters this season.
However, the total stats don’t tell the whole story as they obscure how bad he was before the All-Star break (4.85 ERA) but also obscures how good he has been after the All-Star break (0.00 ERA in 19 IP). Despite the recent resurgence in performance, I’m nowhere near as high on Shoemaker’s potential as I am for Gausman.
Playoff odds based on teamrankings.com and through 8/5/15
Player stats found on Fangraphs and also through 8/5/15
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