As we continue the build up to week one of the college football season, let’s take a look at Tennessee’s most important games in 2015. This is a continuation of a conversation I had with Mark Rogers (@MarkRogersTV) which is also posted here on LastWordOnSports.com (see webcast discussion here).
What makes a game important for the Vols? Butch Jones is still building this program. Sure, everyone is working to win the conference championship and get into the national conversation, but that’s not a realistic goal for this season. For now, Tennessee needs to continue to show consistent forward program progress. What does that mean in empirical terms? It means a minimum of an 8-win regular season and third-place finish in the SEC East. Anything less than this starts to provide counter-weight to the momentum and hype that Jones has built around team.
So, with that in mind, here are Tennessee’s five most important games this season:
1. Florida: This game is more about psychology than wins and losses- the psychology of the young Volunteer team, the psychology of the coaching staff, and the psychology of the fan base. Florida is riding a ten game streak in this rivalry – one that, not so long ago, was a major factor in determining national championships. For the young players, going on the road in a hostile environment and getting a huge SEC East win against the Gators would show others and themselves that they’ve learned how to win. For the coaching staff, a win in Gainesville would help round out their improving reputation. Everyone knows Butch Jones & Co. can recruit with the best of them, but there have been some questionable game management and on-field decisions in the past two contests against Florida. Being great recruiters doesn’t matter if you can’t win the big games. As for the fan base, nothing would say tell them “We’re back” than an early season win against Florida. Florida is also a program currently in transition and this game is an opportunity for Tennessee to establish itself as the stronger of the two, both with recruits and in the eyes for the bowl committees. Right now, Vol Nation is existing on a huge comeback against South Carolina, a big bowl win against Iowa, and an extraordinarily large amount of expectation and anticipation as it heads into 2015. An early win against Florida would put some meat back on the bones of Vol Nation.
2. South Carolina: While it’s true that Tennessee has beaten South Carolina two straight seasons, it’s also true that South Carolina is still a good football team. Tennessee’s minimal expectations for 2015 are finishing 8-4 overall and third in the East. The South Carolina game could very well be the difference between 7-5 and 8-4 overall and/or between third and fourth in the East. That’s why this game is so important; for Tennessee to continue to make upward progress it has to continue winning against the mid-tier teams of the SEC East. The two straight upsets are just one of the many story lines in this contest. It’ll be a late season game, South Carolina is coming off a disappointing year, and of course there is always the Spurrier element. If Tennessee can beat both Florida and South Carolina, that ought to assure them of a .500 conference record for the season (making Georgia and Alabama less important and only one between Missouri and Arkansas a “must-win”) and at least third place in the SEC East. This is as close to a “must-win” on Tennessee’s 2015 schedule that you will find before the season starts.
3. Missouri: To continue with the theme of moving up the East ladder, there’s no better way to do it than beating the reigning two-time division winners. Missouri has seemingly had Tennessee’s number since joining the SEC East three years ago. Tennessee has had no lucky breaks against the Tigers either, with a heartbreaking overtime loss in 2012 and a bizarre call on an onside kick late in last year’s game. While Missouri loses a significant amount of talent on the defensive side, they are returning their top two offensive weapons and will host this game. Expect this to be a tough assignment for the Volunteer defense. While Florida and South Carolina are games Tennessee needs to win to keep climbing, a win against Missouri is a win that will allow Tennessee to compete for the Division championship.
4. Arkansas: Arkansas and Tennessee are on almost identical trajectories. Both are historically proud programs, but have been through a rough patch over the past few years. Both have vibrant young coaches breathing life back into the programs, and both are popular picks to be nationally relevant after 7-6 2014 campaigns. This game is important because it’s the rotational West game for the Vols. Tennessee draws Alabama yearly as the historical rival, so it’s important to win the rotational game for the Vols (in this era of Alabama dominance) to help keep pace with other East teams who don’t have to play the perennial powerhouse. Additionally, with Arkansas and Tennessee so similar in the eyes of many around the nation, this would be an opportunity for Tennessee to separate themselves with recruits and bowl representatives as well. It would also help in restoring a semblance of balance between East and West in the conference.
5. Oklahoma: The only non-SEC team on this list. This game is a lot like Florida in that it is more about the intangibles than the wins and losses (obviously, since it’s not an SEC contest). Tennessee has been embarrassed on the national stage over the last three years with two blowouts at the hands of Oregon and a horrific first half against Oklahoma last year. But those that watched the second half started to see the potential that this young Vols team has. The running game built momentum, the offensive line started to figure a few things out, and the defense played an overall solid game. Were it not for a pick-6 late in the game as Tennessee was at the Oklahoma goal line, this game would have been close. This game is early in the season, and SEC fans would love nothing more than Joshua Dobbs, Curt Maggitt and the team to stick a good “L” to long-time SEC-detractor Bob Stoops. Of course Tennessee fans would love nothing more than to announce their team’s return to national prominence with a huge win against Oklahoma, presumably on national television. This will be the first home game for the Vols of the early, highly anticipated season and the atmosphere in Knoxville will be great. Not necessarily a “must-win” but it’ll be critically important nonetheless.
The others:
Nightmare Scenario: A loss to Bowling Green, North Texas or Western Carolina would be disastrous and irreparable in the eyes of voters and bowl representatives.
Absolute Must-Wins: Tennessee has to win against Kentucky and Vanderbilt. The Vols cannot afford to lose ground against teams with lesser talent and lesser momentum.
Gravy: A win against Georgia or Alabama would be great, but not necessary in 2015. If 2015 goes the way many think it will go for Tennessee (8-4/9-3, 2nd East), then Georgia immediately becomes the most important game for Tennessee entering the 2016 season.
So for Tennessee to continue its upward trajectory and maintain its momentum, those are the games I see as critically important in this upcoming season. Please let me know what you think below or on twitter.
