Each season every NFL team has various goals, including, winning games within the division, making the playoffs, winning the division, and, ultimately, winning the Super Bowl. Before each NFL season begins, sports writers and radio hosts, among others, all try to predict how the season will play out. One Harvard student developed a model to try to predict the odds of each NFL team making the playoffs this season, and I found at least one of his selections to be way off base. In this article I will predict, hopefully somewhat accurately, the division winners and wild cards for the 2015 season for the NFC.
If you missed my 2015 AFC regular season predictions, check them out here.
2015 NFC REGULAR SEASON PREDICTIONS
NFC EAST
2014 Records:
Dallas Cowboys: 12-4
Philadelphia Eagles: 10-6
New York Giants: 6-10
Washington Redskins: 4-12
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys may have lost in the divisional round to the Green Bay Packers after the Dez Bryant catch that wasn’t quite, per the NFL’s rules. But at least they didn’t finish 8-8 for a fourth straight season and they won the division. With running back DeMarco Murray leading the league in rushing, quarterback Tony Romo was able to have his most efficient season since entering the NFL. The defense improved from 2013, but the pass rush did struggle. This offseason they added talented but troubled defensive ends Greg Hardy (suspended four games) and Randy Gregory, among other players. But they had some key losses, including Murray, who signed with the Eagles this offseason.
With wide receiver Dez Bryant signing a five-year, $70 million contract this offseason, the biggest question the Cowboys now need to answer is how to replace Murray’s production. Reportedly, Joseph Randle is the leader in the clubhouse to get the most carries, but Darren McFadden and Ryan Williams are also being evaluated to see how many carries each of them could get. Murray’s production will be difficult to replace and it may end up being a “running back by committee approach” in Dallas. One thing is certain though. The Cowboys need an effective running game to help alleviate the pressure on Romo. When the former Eastern Illinois quarterback throws it around 25 times per game, his team is much more successful. But if the ground game isn’t working then Romo will be asked to do too much and historically that hasn’t been the best for Big D.
Philadelphia Eagles
After starting 9-3 in 2014 and then missing the playoffs, the Eagles have been the most intriguing team this offseason. Chip Kelly’s squad added quarterbacks Sam Bradford and Tim Tebow, running back DeMarco Murray, linebacker Kiko Alonso and cornerback Byron Maxwell, among others, this offseason. But gone are some talented players, including quarterback Nick Foles, running back LeSean McCoy, wide receiver Jeremy Maclin, and linebacker Trent Cole. The biggest question in Philly is whether or not Bradford, who has had two ACL operations, and hasn’t played a regular season game since 2013, can stay healthy for the entire season. If he can and he gels with his new teammates, the Eagles certainly have the talent to contend in the division.
New York Giants
The Giants started the season 3-2, then went 3-8 the rest of the way and posted a losing record for the second straight season, missing the postseason for the third straight year. Wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. was named rookie of the year last season and if Victor Cruz can get 100% healthy and remain injury free (suffered a patellar tendon tear last season), the Giants could have a seriously good receiving corps, especially when you add Rueben Randle into the mix.
Big Blue has added some key pieces this offseason, including linebacker Jonathan Casillas and running back Shane Vereen, but they lost some talented players in free agency, including safeties Stevie Brown and Antrel Rolle and cornerbacks Zach Brown and Walter Thurmond. If New York’s offensive line can effectively protect Eli Manning and their defense can step up and improve upon last season, (defensive end Jason Pierre Paul playing, and playing, well after losing his right index finger in a fireworks accident will be key), the Giants could be a tough team in 2015.
Washington Redskins
Washington won the division in 2012, but they have finished in last place in six out of the last seven seasons, including last season, which was Jay Gruden’s first at the helm. The biggest question heading into the 2015 season is whether or not quarterback Robert Griffin III can be the signal caller the Redskins need and can win consistently with.
Washington added some key players this offseason, including cornerback Chris Culliver and defensive end Ricky Jean Francois. But they also lost some important players including safety Ryan Clark, running back Roy Helu and linebacker Brian Orakpo. The Redskins should improve upon their 2014 record of 4-12, but they will only go as far as RG III takes them.
Division winner: Giants
NFC NORTH
2014 Records:
Green Bay Packers: 12-4
Detroit Lions: 11-6
Minnesota Vikings: 7-9
Chicago Bears: 5-11
Green Bay Packers
The Packers, behind a tremendous season from quarterback Aaron Rodgers, took the NFC North title for a fourth straight season in 2014. Green Bay then made it to the NFC Championship game, which the Seattle Seahawks ended up winning in absolutely stunning fashion. The Packers players and coaches will undoubtedly use that loss as motivation as they head into the 2015 season. They also happen to have Rodgers, who is the best quarterback in the division, and one of the best players in the league.
Green Bay re-signed stud wide receiver Randall Cobb this offseason, which means Rodgers will still have various weapons at his disposal, including wide receivers Cobb and Jordy Nelson and running backs Eddie Lacy and James Starks. Green Bay’s offense will once again be scary good. Last season Green Bay’s run defense was less than great, but it improved once Clay Matthews played more at inside linebacker. Safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix showed he is capable of playing at a high level in the NFL in his rookie season and if this year’s rookies, particularly defensive backs Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins can step up and produce, the defense could easily take a step forward. But there are questions on that side of the ball.
Detroit Lions
The Lions had a good 2014 and made the playoffs as a wild card in Jim Caldwell’s first season as head coach. They just missed out on the division title due to losing to the Packers in Week 17. Detroit’s defense was stellar last season, but the offense didn’t produce as much as they could, or should, have.
The Lions did add some key pieces, including defensive tackle Haloti Ngata, but gone are defensive tackles Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley and running back Reggie Bush, among others. Those losses could be difficult to overcome this season. But quarterback Matthew Stafford did throw only 12 interceptions last season, the fewest of his career when playing a full season. The offense will have to take a couple of steps forward given the losses on defense, but Stafford will still have the talented wide receiver tandem of Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate to throw it to, which could help. Time will tell if it is enough to take the division.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings have two things going for them as they head into the 2015 season: Running back Adrian Peterson is back after being suspended for much of last year (he was eventually put on the Commissioner’s Exempt List). Soon-to-be second-year quarterback Teddy Bridgewater looked impressive in his rookie season. Bridgewater was pretty darn good in 2014 despite not having a truly dominant wide receiver to throw to and Minnesota’s offensive line not being one of the best in the league.
The Vikings have added wide receiver Mike Wallace, cornerbacks Terence Newman and Trae Waynes and linebacker Eric Kendricks, among others, this offseason. But players like fullback Jerome Felton, wide receiver Greg Jennings, linebacker Jasper Brinkley and quarterback Matt Cassel are no longer with the Vikings. There is no doubt that the Vikings are a team on the rise, but will it be enough in the tough NFC North?
Chicago Bears
After missing the playoffs last season the Bears have now missed the postseason in seven of the last eight seasons. Despite the talent on offense in 2014 the offense greatly underperformed and the defense was horrible, ranking among the worst in franchise history. Quarterback Jay Cutler has the talent to be a really good quarterback, but he needs to conquer the mental part of the game and stop turning the ball over so much.
The Bears still have a lot of talent on the offensive side of the ball (Cutler, wide receivers Alshon Jeffery and Kevin White, tight end Martellus Bennett and running back Matt Forte), and it is possible that new head coach John Fox could greatly help Cutler improve in 2015, but that will need to be seen before it can believed. The Bears added some key components this offseason, including White, safety Antrel Rolle and linebackers Sam Acho and Mason Foster, but gone are wide receiver Brandon Marshall, linebacker Lance Briggs and cornerback Charles Tillman.
Fox may very well end up turning the Bears around, but it probably won’t happen in 2015.
Division winner: Packers
NFC SOUTH
2014 Records:
Carolina Panthers: 7-8-1
New Orleans Saints: 7-9
Atlanta Falcons: 6-10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2-14
The NFC South was easily the worst division in the NFL last season. When a team wins the division with a losing record that is no bueno.
Carolina Panthers
The Panthers started the season 3-8-1 and somehow still won the division, becoming the first team to win back-to-back NFC South titles. Quarterback Cam Newton had a tough 2014 and played the majority of the season with various injuries. Newton is extremely athletic, but he needs to improve as a passer, become more of a leader, and improve his attitude if he hopes to ever win a Super Bowl.
The Panthers added wide receivers Ted Ginn Jr. and Devin Funchess, offensive tackles Michael Oher and Jonathan Martin and cornerbacks Charles Tillman and Chris Houston this offseason. But they had some key losses including defensive end Greg Hardy, running back DeAngelo Williams and safety Thomas DeCoud. Carolina also secured the futures of Newton, tight end Greg Olsen and linebacker Thomas Davis with long-terms deals this offseason.
Carolina was very young last season, but now those players have some NFL experience and Newton will enter the 2015 season healthy. The Panthers didn’t lose much from last season, but the question remains. Can Newton lead the team to a better record than 7-8-1? It might actually take a winning record to win the division title in 2015.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints failed to make the postseason in 2014 and they are hoping 2015 has a different narrative. Last season quarterback Drew Brees threw for 4,952 yards (tied for first with Ben Roethlisberger), proving he can still play at a really high level. But he also threw 17 interceptions, which was uncharacteristic of Brees. Plus, the Saints’ biggest issue was not Brees’ interceptions, it was their defense. This offseason Dennis Allen was brought into New Orleans to be a senior defensive assistant coach and head coach Sean Payton got rid of several players who underperformed in 2014.
The Saints added some key players including running back C.J. Spiller, center Max Unger, cornerback Brandon Browner, defensive tackle Kevin Williams and linebackers Dannell Ellerbe and Anthony Spencer. But they lost tight end Jimmy Graham, wide receiver Kenny Stills, running back Pierre Thomas, linebacker Curtis Lofton and cornerbacks Patrick Robinson and Corey White.
Replacing the production of Graham and Stills will prove to be difficult, but there is some talent on the offensive side of the ball and Brees has proven he is a top-tier quarterback. Brees will do all he can to get the Saints back to the postseason. With an improved secondary, the defense should be markedly better in 2015, particularly if they can improve their pass rush.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons had five straight winning seasons before posting two straight losing seasons, including last year. Head coach Mike Smith is now gone and Dan Quinn has taken over.
The Falcons have added cornerback Philip Adams, defensive end Adrian Clayborn, linebackers Brooks Reed, Justin Durant and O’Brien Schofield and tight end Jacob Tamme this offseason. But they lost offensive tackle Sam Baker, offensive guard Justin Blalock, wide receiver Harry Douglas, defensive end Osi Umenyiora, cornerback Robert McClain and linebacker Prince Shembo, among others.
With talented quarterback Matt Ryan and wide receivers Roddy White, Julio Jones and Devin Hester, Atlanta has some playmakers on the offensive side of the ball. They could contend for a division title this season, but the defense needs to improve drastically from last season and a running back(s) and the offensive line need to step up in 2015.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I didn’t expect the Buccaneers to make the playoffs last season, but even I didn’t see 2-14 coming. After making some splashy signings and bringing in new head coach Lovie Smith, many experts expected the Bucs to greatly improve in 2014. That didn’t happen and quarterback Josh McCown, defensive end Michael Johnson and offensive tackle Anthony Collins were all cut after just one season with Tampa Bay.
The most high profile addition the Bucs made this offseason was quarterback Jameis Winston, but they also added linebacker Bruce Carter, cornerback Sterling Moore and defensive tackle Henry Melton, among others.
The Bucs should improve on their 2-14 record, but they won’t contend for the division title or playoffs in 2015.
Division winner: Saints
NFC WEST
2014 Records:
Seattle Seahawks: 12-4
Arizona Cardinals: 11-5
San Francisco 49ers: 8-8
St. Louis Rams: 6-10
Seattle Seahawks
After an incredible comeback against the Packers in the NFC Championship game, the Seahawks lost Super Bowl XLIX to the New England Patriots after cornerback Malcolm Butler intercepted a Russell Wilson pass in the end zone. It was the Seahawks second straight trip to the Super Bowl and it’s possible they could be even better this season.
The Seahawks still have Wilson (who signed a four-year, $87.6 million extension on Friday, which is a smart move by the Seahawks), running back Marshawn Lynch and they brought in stellar tight end Jimmy Graham this offseason. The Seahawks’ offense may have even improved, despite center Max Unger no longer being on the roster (now with the Saints). Seattle will still be really good on the defensive side of the ball as well, with players like safeties Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor, linebacker Bruce Irvin, and cornerback Richard Sherman, among others, all still in Seattle.
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals got off to a 9-1 start last season, but injuries, particularly to quarterback Carson Palmer, hurt them down the stretch. Arizona ended the season with two straight losses and went 2-4 in their final six regular season games, but made the playoffs because of their 9-1 start. With Palmer and backup quarterback Drew Stanton both sidelined, however, the Cardinals were forced to start their third string quarterback in the Wild Card round of the playoffs against the Panthers and Arizona ended up losing to Carolina 27-16. Most fans believe it would have been a different story if either Palmer or Stanton were healthy.
Arizona still has one of the better wide receivers in the league (even if I didn’t rank him in my top 10 earlier this offseason) in Larry Fitzgerald. If Fitzgerald can still produce and be someone opposing defenses have to game plan for, young receivers John Brown and Michael Floyd could really benefit. The Cardinals no longer have cornerback Antonio Cromartie (now with the Jets) or defensive end Darnell Docket (now with the 49ers), but they will still have one of the better defenses in the league this season. Players like safety Tyrann Mathieu, cornerback Patrick Peterson, and defensive end Calais Campbell will help make sure the Cardinals’ defense keeps their team in almost every game this season.
The biggest questions is Palmer’s ability to stay healthy. If Palmer can stay on the field, the Cardinals are a team to be reckoned with in the NFC. Palmer got off to a great start last season, winning all six games he started, while ranking eighth in the league with a 95.6 passer rating.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers were a perennial power in the NFC West and entire NFC for most of head coach Jim Harbaugh’s time in San Francisco. But they struggled in 2014, going 8-8 and missing the playoffs. Harbaugh is now head coach of the Michigan Wolverines after he and 49ers management could no longer get along.
The 49ers have also been decimated on defense this offseason. Linebackers Chris Borland and Patrick Willis, safety Bubba Ventrone, and defensive end Justin Smith all retired this offseason. San Francisco also lost some players on offense, with wide receiver Michael Crabtree now with the Oakland Raiders and running back Frank Gore now in Indianapolis with the Colts. But it’s not like the 49ers failed to bring in some players this offseason. They added running back Reggie Bush and wide receiver Torrey Smith.
The two biggest questions for the 49ers are whether or not quarterback Colin Kaepernick can be the player Harbaugh and the 49ers thought he would be when they jettisoned Alex Smith to the Kansas City Chiefs in favor of Kaepernick, and if the defense can improve and hold up in the tough NFC West. I’m not sure either of those happen.
St. Louis Rams
The Rams should once again have a formidable defense, especially after the addition of defensive tackle Nick Fairley, who will be opposite defensive tackle Aaron Donald (2014 Defensive Rookie of the Year). Their defensive line might even have the chance to be one of the best in the league this season.
It is possible that the Rams improve on offense after they traded oft-injured quarterback Sam Bradford to the Eagles for quarterback Nick Foles. They also have running backs Todd Gurley and Tre Mason, along with wide receivers Brian Quick and Tavon Austin. If the offense clicks, the Rams could improve by 2-3 games this season. The question will be whether or not the offensive line can actually protect Foles and I’m not really confident they can.
I’m not sure Rams will actually make the playoffs this season, but they could definitely take a step forward.
Division winner: Seahawks
Wild Card: Cardinals
Wild Card: Eagles
Be sure to check back for my playoff predictions.
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