Each season every NFL team has various goals, including winning games within the division, making the playoffs, winning the division and, ultimately, winning the Super Bowl. Before each NFL season begins sports writers, radio hosts, among others, all try to predict how the season will play out. One Harvard student developed a model to try to predict the odds of each NFL team making the playoffs this season and I found at least one of his selections to be way off base. In this article I will predict, hopefully somewhat accurately, the division winners and wild cards for the 2015 season for the AFC.
2015 AFC REGULAR SEASON PREDICTIONS
AFC EAST
2014 Records:
New England Patriots: 12-4
Buffalo Bills: 9-7
Miami Dolphins: 8-8
New York Jets: 4-12
BUFFALO BILLS
The Bills had their first winning season in a decade in 2014 and they got better this offseason. This offseason the Bills added running back LeSean McCoy and wide receiver Percy Harvin, among other talented players to their roster, but they also lost running back C.J. Spiller and linebackers Kiko Alonso and Brandon Spikes.
The main issue for the Bills is they have some questions at quarterback. E.J. Manuel will most likely be the Week 1 starter when Buffalo hosts the Indianapolis Colts, but whether he or Matt Cassel can lead the Bills to the division title in 2015 remains a question.
NEW YORK JETS
The Jets also improved this offseason by adding cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie, wide receiver Brandon Marshall, safety Marcus Gilchrist and running back Zac Stacy, among others. But quarterback Geno Smith has yet to prove he can be the guy to lead his team to the playoffs. The former West Virginia quarterback has 25 career touchdowns, but 34 interceptions. The Jets may well improve upon their 2014 record because of the additions they made this offseason, but in today’s NFL it is difficult for a team to win consistently when their quarterback turns the ball over as frequently as Smith does.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
This offseason the Dolphins added defensive tackles Ndamukong Suh and C.J. Mosley, wide receivers Greg Jennings and DeVante Parker, tight end Jordan Cameron, among other players to their roster. They also have the second best quarterback in the division in Ryan Tannehill and, with stellar defensive players like Cameron Wake and Suh, they have a chance to end the 2015 season with a better record than they did in 2014 and a realistic shot at making the playoffs.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
The Patriots are coming off a season where they won the division and their fourth Super Bowl. Of course the offseason talk has been all about the Deflategate controversy and on Tuesday NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell ruled that quarterback Tom Brady’s four game suspension for allegedly knowing about deflated footballs will be upheld. Where Brady, the Patriots and the league head from here we don’t yet know. Brady could either accept the four game suspension or he could take the NFL to court.
It seems inconsistent that Goodell and league reduced Greg Hardy’s suspension for domestic violence from ten games to four and upheld Brady’s suspension at four games, but that is where Deflategate is now at. Just remember that the Patriots started last season 2-2 and then went on to lose only two games the remainder of the way, including winning the Super Bowl. The Patriots could easily get off to a 2-2 start under either Jimmy Garropolo or Matt Flynn before Brady’s return. So the suspension, while huge news may ultimately not matter.
But it is important to keep in mind that the Patriots have lost some key members on both sides of the ball, including cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner, defensive tackle Vince Wilfork and running backs Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley and offensive lineman Dan Connolly. But the Patriots will still have Brady for the bulk of the season and head coach Bill Belichick, along with tight end Rob Gronkowski, running back LeGarrette Blount, wide receiver Julian Edelman, linebacker Jamie Collins and defensive end Rob Ninkovich, among other talented players on both sides of the ball. Even with Brady’s four game suspension being upheld New England should still win the AFC East again.
Division winner: Patriots
AFC NORTH
2014 Records:
Pittsburgh Steelers: 11-5
Cincinnati Bengals: 10-5-1
Baltimore Ravens: 10-6
Cleveland Browns: 7-9
The AFC North may be the best division in the AFC and last season it sent three teams to the playoffs. Those same three teams—Steelers, Bengals and Ravens—certainly all have a realistic shot a division title in 2015. That makes this division the toughest to predict in the AFC.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
The Steelers have the best quarterback in the division in Ben Roethlisberger, who has led the team to two Super Bowl victories in his career. The trio of Roethlisberger, wide receiver Antonio Brown, and running back Le’Veon Bell is the best in the division and one of the best in the league. Long time defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau and Steeler icon safety Troy Polamalu are no longer with the Steelers. LeBeau is now with the Tennessee Titans and Polamalu retired this offseason.
The Steelers have long been known for their defense, but they struggled on that side of the ball in 2014, particularly against the pass, and it could be more of the same in 2015. The Steelers have the best offense in the division, but their defense has a lot of questions. However, if their defense steps up in 2015 (particular the young talent they have added), the Steelers could be scary good, even if they have the toughest schedule.
CINCINNATI BENGALS
The Bengals may have the division’s third best quarterback in Andy Dalton, but they have a lot of offensive weapons, including running backs Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill along with a really talented receiver in A.J. Green. Mohamed Sanu and tight end Tyler Eifert, among other gifted players, are also at Dalton’s disposal. But there are some questions on defense, particularly in the secondary, which is really young.
The Bengals may have a lot of talent on offense, but the Bengals’ secondary and an inconsistent Dalton (although he’s taken the Bengals to the playoffs in each of his first four seasons) are things to consider before picking the Bengals to win the division.
BALTIMORE RAVENS
Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco is the second best quarterback in the AFC North and he knows what it takes to win, with a Super Bowl ring to his credit. Ravens running back Justin Forsett had a really good 2014 season, putting up 1,529 yards from scrimmage, and the Ravens hope he can duplicate that success in 2015, especially with the turnover at receiver. Tight end Owen Daniels is now with the Denver Broncos and wide receiver Torrey Smith is with the San Francisco 49ers.
The defensive backfield may not be the strongest, but the acquisition of Kyle Arrington should help. The Ravens are certainly capable of winning the division this season, but it may take a supreme effort from Flacco.
CLEVELAND BROWNS
The Browns are moving in the right direction and this offseason they added wide receiver Brian Hartline, defensive tackle Randy Starks and quarterback Josh McCown. But they also lost tight end Jordan Cameron, quarterback Brian Hoyer and defensive end Jabaal Sheard, and until they have someone under center they can truly trust, Cleveland will be stuck right around .500 and they won’t make the playoffs.
Division winner: Steelers
AFC SOUTH
2014 Records:
Indianapolis Colts: 11-5
Houston Texans: 9-7
Jacksonville Jaguars: 3-13
Tennessee Titans: 2-14
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
The Colts won the division in 2014 and ended up losing to the Patriots in the AFC Championship game. They have one of the best young, and best period, quarterbacks in the league in Andrew Luck. The former Stanford Cardinal has taken the Colts to the postseason in each of his first three seasons and has helped Indianapolis take two straight division titles, after being the number one overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft.
In 2014 he set career highs in completion percentage (61.7), touchdowns (40) and passer rating (96.5). As impressive as he is, Luck does need to cut down on the number of turnovers, particularly in the playoffs. But he is asked to do a lot and there is no doubt that almost every NFL team would take Luck in a heartbeat.
Indianapolis added linebacker Trent Cole, wide receiver Andre Johnson, and running back Frank Gore, among others, this offseason, but they lost some key players, including safety LaRon Landry and wide receiver Reggie Wayne. Luck and the Colts have one goal this season and that is to win the Super Bowl and they have the talent to potentially achieve that goal.
HOUSTON TEXANS
The Texans have one of the better young receivers in the league in DeAndre Hopkins, along with talented running back Arian Foster. They also have the best defensive player in the NFL in two-time defensive player of the year, defensive end J.J. Watt. If the Texans can get a full season out of linebacker Jadeveon Clowney, (played just four games in 2014, his rookie season), their defense could be even more formidable after adding defensive tackle Vince Wilfork, safety Rahim Moore and cornerback Kevin Johnson this offseason.
But Houston has questions at the quarterback position. They have Ryan Mallet and they added Brian Hoyer this offseason and both will complete for the starting job. While both are talented and they are capable of playing well, it remains to be seen if either can put together an entire season and lead a team to the playoffs.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS, TENNESSEE TITANS
Let’s handle both the Jaguars and Titans at the same time. Both have made some key additions this offseason, with the Jaguars adding tight end Julius Thomas, running back T.J. Yeldon, offensive tackle Jermey Parnell and defensive end Jared Odrick, among others.
The Titans were able to bring in quarterback Marcus Mariota, linebacker Brian Orakpo and cornerback Perrish Cox, among others. Both may improve upon their 2014 records, but don’t get carried away. Neither has a chance at winning the division in 2015.
Division winner: Colts
AFC WEST
2014 Records:
Denver Broncos: 12-4
Kansas City Chiefs: 9-7
San Diego Chargers: 9-7
Oakland Raiders: 3-13
DENVER BRONCOS
The Broncos have the best quarterback in the division, with Peyton Manning under center. They have a new head coach after Gary Kubiak took over for John Fox. Denver added tight end Owen Daniels, defensive end Vance Walker, and center Gino Gradowski among others this offseason. But they lost tight ends Julius Thomas and Jacob Tamme, wide receiver Wes Welker and safety Rahim Moore.
The Broncos will need their young offensive line to be able to work well together so they can keep Manning upright, after a hip injury derailed him a bit in the latter part of the 2014 season. It will also help if running backs C.J. Anderson and Montee Ball can be effective in the backfield.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
The Chiefs somehow got off to a 7-3 start last season, despite being hit hard by the injury bug. But they ended up going just 2-4 down the stretch and they missed out on making the playoffs in the final week of the season. Quarterback Alex Smith has shown he is capable of winning games in the NFL, but he needs to be more consistent in 2015. Kansas City did add wide receiver Jeremy Maclin this offseason and, after a season where no Chiefs wide receiver scored a touchdown, that should prove to be a really good addition. They still have Jamaal Charles at running back and if he can stay healthy that should help take some of the pressure of Smith.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
The Chargers got off to a fast start last season going 5-1, but, once again, they missed the playoffs after struggling down the stretch, particularly against the Patriots and Broncos. If they had defeated the Chiefs in Week 17 they would have made it to the postseason, but for the fourth time in five seasons, San Diego was on the outside looking in once the playoffs began.
The Chargers certainly have talent and this offseason they added wide receivers Stevie Johnson and Jacoby Jones and running back Melvin Gordon, among others. This season the offensive line needs to better protect quarterback Philip Rivers, get the running game going so it can complement Rivers’ ability and get after opposing quarterbacks. That sounds like a lot, but the pieces are there for the Chargers to make the playoffs in 2015.
OAKLAND RAIDERS
The Raiders have one of the most rabid fan bases in the NFL, but even with key additions like wide receivers Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree and linebackers Curtis Lofton and Malcolm Smith, Oakland’s fans will probably be disappointed yet again in 2015. The Raiders will probably finish 2015 with a similar record to last season.
Division winner: Broncos
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Wild Card: Ravens
Wild Card: Chargers
Be sure to check back for my NFC and playoff predictions.
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