As we move into the post All-Star break section of the season (I refuse to call it the Second Half since everyone played more than 50% of their games before the break), fantasy owners are increasingly looking towards the waiver wire to upgrade their roster for the stretch run.
Some of these players may be legitimate upgrades while others may have run into a stretch of good luck but are unlikely to help in the long-term. In this article, we will evaluate players on the offense side to evaluate which ones could be good upgrades and which players are unlikely to maintain their level of performance. This list is limited to players owned in less than 40% of leagues (Based on ESPN totals). With that, I present the 7-23-15 Deep Waiver Wire Report.
Catcher
John Jaso, C, Tampa Bay Rays
Obviously, if you are in a league where Kyle Schwarber has not been picked up, he gets top priority if he is somehow still available. However, he has crossed the 40% threshold which brings us to Jaso.
Jaso has missed much of this season due to injury. However, he has been red hot over his first 13 games, hitting .359 with one HR. The batting average is likely to come down to earth sooner rather than later as his BABIP is at .419 (if your league does OBP this will be somewhat mitigated by a high walk rate (12.5% career BB%). With that being said, one encouraging thing is that he appears to be making better contact so far as the percentage of balls hit with hard speed (Hard%) is 40.6% (his career total is at 27%). However, his ceiling for playing time likely has its limits as he has struggled against lefties in his career (.169 AVG in 214 PA). With that in mind, we would recommend passing on Jaso unless your league counts OBP instead of AVG.
First Base
C.J. Cron, 1B, Los Angeles Angels
Cron started the season in the minors but has had a respectable performance since being called up. In 49 games, he has hit .278 with five HR and a 107 wRC+. One red flag that may catch up to him (even if it is not this season) is his lack of patience at the plate as he has a 2.4 BB% in 167 PA.
While he has shown potential for hitting for power (he hit 11 HR in 253 PA last season), his power ceiling is likely in the low double figures range. Besides that, another red flag being hidden by an improved AVG is that he is making much less hard contact this season as his Hard% has decreased from 34.3% to 28.6%. If you are absolutely desperate for power, Cron may be helpful in the short-term but I don’t see his career lasting very long unless he learns how to draw more walks.
Second Base
Jonathan Schoop, 2B, Baltimore Orioles
Despite provided some power last year (16 HR), Schoop was very lightly (if at all) regarded coming into this season. While he did get off to a respectable start, he has also missed much time due to injury. Since coming back he has done well, hitting .306 with three HR over 10 games.
One pre-season concern was AVG as he hit .209 last year, this season he is hitting .286 even though his BABIP is not very high (also .286). While his power pace is not sustainable (35.3% HR/FB rate is due for regression), he has shown signs of making strides hitting for power as his Line Drive and Hard Hit Ball percentages have both improved this season which indicates that he has made strides as a hitter and could be a nice upgrade down the stretch.
Third Base
Jung-ho Kang, 3B, SS Pittsburgh Pirates
Kang is also eligible at SS. Kang has hit very well in July as he’s hitting .352 over the first 16 games of this month. This stretch of strong play has increased his AVG to .282. This season, his BABIP is relatively high (.346) indicating that he may be closer to a .260 hitter in the long-term. So far, his upside in power appears to be modest as he has 5 HR in 273 PA and his HR/FB rate of 10.9% indicates that he has not been extremely lucky or unlucky. While Kang is likely to put up respectable numbers going forward, his upside seems limited.
Shortstop
Eugenio Suarez, SS, Cincinnati Reds
Suarez has seen an increase in playing time since Zach Cozart was lost due to injury. So far, he has taken advantage of this opportunity as he is hitting .304 with five HR in 120 PA. Personally, I would be shocked if he ended the season with an AVG anywhere close to this as he is currently sporting a high BABIP (.367) and he has had a very low walk rate (BB% of 4.2%).
On the power side, he has run into some good fortune as his HR/FB rate of 15.2% is much higher than it was last year (5.3%). The things indicating that the power numbers are a product of good luck is that the percentage of hard hit balls has actually decreased compared to last season and he did not hit for very much power in the minors. Based on this, I’m not sold on Suarez maintaining this performance going forward.
Outfield
Kelly Johnson, OF, 3B, 1B, Atlanta Braves
Johnson is also eligible at 3B & 1B in ESPN leagues. One thing Johnson has done well is hit for power (even if he hasn’t received that much playing time). He has hit nine HR in 193 PA this season. While there has been a slight element of luck (17% HR/FB rate this season is above his 12.1% career total) his 32.6 Hard% is also the best he’s done in this area since 2010.
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