All Blacks Analysis: The quality of a country’s back three is going to be crucial to their chances of winning the 2015 Rugby World Cup. Let’s have a look at the potential options for the All Blacks..
It’s important to note first that the RWC is not going to be like Super Rugby. Attacking at all costs will not bring you the William Webb Ellis Cup. The rugby public will not get a high-octane, lightning-quick spectacle such as the Super Rugby final. Whoever wins the Cup will be the team that makes the least mistakes, plays at the right end of the park, and defends the opponents set-piece, and kicking game, the best. For three out of those four things, the back three of a team is crucial.
We’ve had two All Blacks games to analyse so far. What have we learnt? Firstly, the coaches are determined to give Israel Dagg every opportunity to play himself back into form. This is for two reasons. First, a firing Israel Dagg would make a huge contribution to the team. His booming punt would keep the All Blacks at the right end of the park, and his accuracy under the high ball would minimise mistakes, and be a valuable attacking weapon. He also possesses a great running game when on form, glimpses of which shone through in the victory of Argentina.
The second reason an on-form Israel Dagg is good for the All Blacks, is it would allow Ben Smith to play on the wing. That may sound a bit strange with the excitement machines coming onto the international scene (Waisake Naholo, George Moala, Charles Piutau), however a quick look back at the 2011 RWC proves that a more solid, less spectacular approach is a tried and true formula. The starting wingers in the 2011 final v France were Richard Kahui and Cory Jane, both of whom are very good, and very solid players, but without the attacking flair of a Naholo or a Moala. They started because they make minimal mistakes, are very comfortable either attacking or defending a high ball, and don’t drop off tackles. Ben Smith is in a very similar mould to Kahui and Jane, and is without doubt a world-class player. His attacking abilities are probably more exciting than Jane’s or Kahui’s were as well. He would easily be the starting right-winger if Dagg were on form.
I would not be comfortable with Naholo/Moala/Piutau starting in a RWC final yet. There have been flashes of excitement in the two games so far, but these have been tempered with basic mistakes, and poor kicking. Julian Savea was similar when he first entered the international scene, and has had to put years of work into becoming ‘safe’ under the high ball, something he initially struggled with. His defence is also consistently solid. It goes without saying his attacking abilities alone would almost command a starting spot in anyone’s back three.
If Dagg can continue to improve (he was average against Samoa, but so were a number of players), then I’m picking the All Blacks first-choice back three will be Dagg at fullback, Savea on the left, and Smith on the right. If Dagg can’t make the grade in time, Smith will revert to fullback, with either Jane or Colin Slade being given a chance on the right, for all the reasons above. Yes Jane may have lost a yard of pace, but he is still such an attribute to a team with the skills already mentioned, to go with outstanding ball-handling and good kicking skills. Slade is more of an outside bet, but he would be a very solid and dependable winger, and would further enhance the tactical kicking options for the All Blacks. The reason I’m picking these two over Naholo/Moala/Piutau, is for the same reasons that a team will win the Rugby World Cup – they may not be the most exciting players, but they will make the least mistakes, keep the ball at the right end of the park, and successfully diffuse the opponents kicking game.
Bring on the World Cup.
Update: Naholo has unfortunately been ruled out of the RWC with a broken leg.
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