Despite the lopsided victory over Ottawa last week, the Eskimo offense is sputtering. They are dead last in total first downs (39), ranked sixth in rushing first downs (12), last in passing first downs (18), last in most yards net offence (563), and last in average yards offence per game (281.5).
It’s early in the season and offenses do take longer to find their rhythm, but those are just excuses. The change of quarterbacks may or may not have an effect on the offensive scheme from week to week, but at game’s end, production and points win football games.
A closer look at the numbers tells a story no one wants to hear but needs to be addressed if the Eskimos hope to win in Ottawa while building some offensive momentum moving forward.
On first down the Eskimos are just plain awful. They don’t gain enough positive yardage on first down to be able to sustain drives with any regularity. In a perfect world they would get the ball and score but the world is far from perfect – and the Eskimos first down plays are anything but perfect, too.
Coming out swinging for the fences to open a drive seems to be the Eskimo game plan as of late. And while it looks impressive to fans, it’s far from that when facing second and long repeatedly. Against the Redblacks last week, the Eskimos attempted to pass on first down 14 times. They completed seven passes; five were incomplete and two were intercepted. One completion was a touchdowns (2 yards). Fifty percent isn’t great but it’s not bad either.
Passing on First Down
The Eskimos first down passing game against Ottawa looked like this:
- Three completions were 10 yards and under. One was a first down (10 yards), one was a touchdown (2 yards), and the other was for 7 yards.
- Four completions were over 15 yards. Two were for 28 yards and two for 19 yards, resulting in four first downs and no touchdowns.
- Five pass attempts were incomplete while two attempts were intercepted.
- Five first downs on 14 pass attempts is 35.7% efficiency.
Rushing on First Down
The Eskimos first down running game against Ottawa looked like this:
- 11 rushing attempts were made
- Seven runs were five yards or less with two of them equaling a loss or negative yards gained
(3, -4, -2, 5, 2, 4, 4). - Four runs were five yards or more, with one 11-yard touchdown run (7, 32, 7).
- One first down on 11 attempts is 9% efficiency.
The combined first down conversion rate is 35.8%. That means the Eskimos were in second and long situations (5 yards or more) eleven times from their original 16 first downs. It’s hard to win football games when facing second and long close to 69% of the time. The odds just aren’t in their favour.
The difference between a good offense and a championship offense is first down efficiency. At this stage of the season the Eskimos offense isn’t either of those and the stats prove it. But they can be if it changes tonight.
Prediction
Nevertheless, the Eskimos will beat the Redblacks tonight 31-15 only because their defense is just too strong. They contained the Redblacks to just 221 yards total offense while giving up just nine points. Edmonton will score more points from field position alone and not from long offensive drives.
