This is where we do the awkward introduction (or welcome back), where I thank you for reading my weekly column named, Fabber’s Believe It or Not and Fabber’s Thumbs Up or Down. I will normally give amazing fantasy advice and open a window into my life just for you to look through. I will tell you which players I believe in this week and which players I am not convinced will score what either of us is hoping for.
I am not telling you to take my words as gospel, I will get some wrong but I get to write this on this great site because I get it right more often. All I am doing is looking through the stats, the history, and the expectations, putting it all together and forming my opinion on what will happen. That is all any of us professional fantasy advice givers are doing (I will never use the word expert because it makes me laugh. It is like calling me an expert lotto picker, sounds dumb right), I do not care if they write on your local blog or ESPN, its all opinions and belief with a little hope.
Do not get me wrong, the numbers and stats we use a 100% accurate and all information I pass on to you by my great stat team is meant to help only. I pick the numbers I think matter most and tell you why you should or shouldn’t use that player. You can name any player and I can give you a reason why to or not to play him on any given week (I should have been a lawyer but it’s not as much fun). I got a gift of jab and fantasy games, so I use both to help the masses.
Fabber’s Believe It or Not! 12 Rules of Fantasy Football
Let me show you what I mean with this little experiment. Player A is coming off another injury. Actually both years he has been in the league he has missed time due to injury. He had single digit rushing touchdowns both years as well and as a running back no one wants that. His team is a pass first and often type of offense and has great receivers that need to get the ball, this will limit his opportunities to get going. Plus it looks like he will miss games this year as well but not clear on the amount. Seems way too risky for his ADP, which is still round one.
Now Player B rushed for over 1,000 yards last year, he also had over 80 receptions. He averaged 4.7 yards per carry while rushing and 10 yards per reception. His team loves to get him involved and he is a clear number one at his position without any threat of losing that spot. He scored 11 touchdowns last year and we expect that to go up this year. He gained over 2,000 yards from scrimmage and is only 23 years old!!!! Get him early and often!!!!!!
I know we all want player B and I don’t want to upset anyone but both are the same player, Le’Veon Bell. See how easy it was to make you love him and hate him at the same time?!?! I could do that to any player you like, it’s simple. So do not just take my word for anything, read everyone’s work and take in all the numbers your brain can handle and then make your decision and live with it. You will not get it right all of the time and that’s the fun and keeps us coming back.
I hope you enjoy my column and to see you every Thursday right here on LWOS. You can follow me on twitter @Coach_Mikefx and listen to me every Wednesday night 9-11 on WBAD.net the Sports Fixx. Oh yea and of course good luck!
12 Rules to Live by
1. Rule Number one, know the rules. This sounds like a wise crack but I receive dozens of emails, tweets, messages, FB posts, and even texts daily asking my opinion of what they should do in their league. When I ask a simple question like, “How many points for a throwing touchdown?”. They reply with how do you find that out? Really?!?! How do you join something without at least asking the details! So find out everything to do with the league, ask questions like roster and lineup requirements, waiver wires, draft requirements, add and drops, when line ups have to be set, playoffs, payoffs, how tiebreakers are decided and on and on. I mean anything you can think of to make sure when it happens you aren’t like, well I didn’t know that. If that is your reply, well you deserve it. Fantasy is getting more and more detailed so you have to worry about even more. Is there any scoring bonuses? Do we get points per yard or just when they get to 10 yards? How is draft order set? The list could go on forever (at least long enough where I do not want to type it all). The easiest way to be prepared is to ask questions and look at your rules and settings. It is only your job to know what your league is all about so do the work.
2. Like the Art of War, be prepared. No one likes the guy who shows up for the draft acting like they belong there but as soon as it begins starts drafting guys who played three years ago. So know who the names are, have a plan and be a little crazy, even have a backup plan. Know what guys you want to target and when they should be targeted but know the guys you are playing with and what they need and when. If you do this you can swing the draft in the direction you want it to go and when you can do that you are in great shape. Anticipate and know what you are doing and you should be fine. Print out rankings, average draft positions (ADP), and even a cheat sheet. You already can be participating in mock drafts and looking at some of the analyst opinions on who should go where. Rule #2 in fantasy, like in the life of a boy scout, BE PREPARED!
3. This is something you will rarely hear from me but on draft day you are not a fan of any body. Do not let your loyalty to a team cloud your judgment as a team owner. Take the guys that will form your team the way it needs to be to have a chance at winning, not so the team you love will love you back. Here is a little secret, they won’t ever find out who you have. This isn’t a who is the best fan contest, which I won for the Panthers (just saying). Wear your team gear and route for them on Sundays but leave that and fantasy completely separated. Do not go overboard here and not draft a player because he is on your team either. Just draft who you believe will help your team the most at that time. Until a player is drafted they are a free agent.
4. We call them Studs for a reason, because they are! I get questions every week about line ups and it drives me banana sandwich when I get one like this, “Do I play Peterson versus a good bears defense?”. The answer is you always play Adrian Peterson! He lost a leg in a skiing accident, play him. Was seen with Chris Brown, play him. I hope you get it, play him. Play your studs, every week, heck maybe even the bye week (Just kidding on that one). Your first 4-6 rounds should be guys you wouldn’t sit unless out or bye. Play your best guys no matter match-ups period. Do not make this rocket science; there is a reason why these players are going early. Everyone wants them and you got them, so the least you can do is show them the respect by playing them. If you like to win as I hope we all do (I know it’s for the fun) you got to play the guys that will lead you to the trophy so many wish they could hold.
5. Don’t worry about the bye week. One of the myths that drives my cuckoo right out of the clock is drafting players around their byes. This is why this doesn’t make sense. The best records will make the playoff, that’s right. So why make your team weak for a couple weeks when you can have a great team weak for one week? If I can get AP, Rodgers, and Charles, who cares if they all have a bye week seven! You shouldn’t but hope the guys you draft against do. This is like the Vegas book on how to win gambling, do you think they really want you to win or just feel like you have a better chance to win. Draft the best team possible. I will take one or two losses to have a first round bye in the playoff and the strongest team down the stretch. Remember no byes fall during playoff time so it will not hurt you when it matters most but passing on that second stud back because he has the same bye week as your first running back is as dumb as it sounds. Do not over think this, go for the best to be the best. Great motto!
6. Protect yourself, no one likes being in handcuffs (well maybe…). Well let me take that back some might but not this kind. So you are getting into the later rounds and you start thinking about reaching for hopefuls or what could be (not a horrible idea). Rather than wasting your pick, which most the time that is, how about you go out and get your own running backs backups. This will secure if they go down you have the guy to replace him. Do not allow yourself to be held hostage by some heckler who drafted your guy’s backup in the 13 round just too now have a gold mine. I am not saying backup every player on your team but try to get your first couple rounds secured with their cuff. Think how happy most drafters were last year when they grabbed G. Bernard early and got his cuff Jeremy Hill later. All of a sudden they ended with a top 10 back. Be smarter than the guy you are playing against and think like a Trojan, protect yourself.
7. Don’t be a follower, dare to lead. Just because the guy in front of you grabbed a RB or WR or QB doesn’t mean you have to. Do not let them make your moves for you. Following the trend will keep you behind it. Instead do what’s best for you and the value of you team. You shouldn’t allow yourself to be overcome by the heat because you see guys going jumping off the draft board. Think about it, if that guy is still there he is probably not as good as the guy they drafted in that exact position, so why draft him just because they did?!?! Form your own team not the leftovers from others. Look at the true value (rule 9) and draft the position that makes the most sense not the guy from the position that is moving like hot cakes. Make your own value system and see who is the most valuable left. This doesn’t mean the most points score (if that was the case we would all draft QBs all draft long. Have system of deciding value or worth to a player and go after those players even if you see a shortage of tight-ends or quarterbacks. It is not worth it to jump ship in the middle of the race. Stay strong and believe in yourself and the system, it works!
8. Claim or be claimed, that is the question. This is almost, if not more important than the draft itself, watch the free agent market. Every year we all miss one guy who is going to come out of nowhere and finish in the top 20 of their position. Injuries or just regression will catch up and give some no name a chance to make good and when he does, jump on him. A waiver claim can get you right back into the race or keep you ahead. Also if you know someone needs a RB, why not pick the best one up so they can’t play him against you? This is where being dedicated and smart helps in fantasy football. Do not be lazy, it’s hard work to win, so put the time in to waivers and you got a chance to hit gold or at least a couple more wins along the way. The draft is just the beginning to the fantasy season, waivers go yearlong for a reason, they are important! You can find articles on who to pick-up right here on LWOS by the talented Casey Bowman. He will guide you in selecting the right guy to pick-up and if you need more help find us on twitter of course. Last year holds any weight there was a player or more from each position that went undrafted but ended up in the top groups. You don’t want to be the guy asking yourself “why didn’t I pick him up?”. So claim away!
9. Know the difference between total points and total value. Here is where we get a little advanced for some but if you can really get this, you will be unstoppable. There is a big difference between total points and total value but explaining it so quick is tough. You can always look me up on Twitter or email for more info but this is where you can make a big difference in your draft. Total points is what someone scores for the year, the problem with going off that number shows just a fraction of the whole picture. Value is key, it guides you to know when to pick who and when to wait. The value of a player is defined by the difference or loss in the average of player per game to the next one down per game. An example is AP and Foster, the top two RB’s from two years ago, the difference in those two players is one point per game. So if you can pick AP now but miss on a QB that lets say averages four more points per game than the next QB. If you do that you lose out by three points of value total. Now if you held off and drafted the QB first and waited to get Foster the next back you would win by three points of value. Let them talk about names; you focus on getting the most points per game. So at the end you will hold the trophy and money and the other guy will say, “How did I lose, I had AP?”.
10. Take a defense and kicker if you got to but if not wait to just pick one up. I laugh every year watching guys scope up the top defense in the 8th round when I am getting the next big running back or WR or even QB sometimes. The difference in value when it comes to first place defense to the 12th place defense is less than four points per game. That tells us there is no rush to jump the gun on defense you can hold out and wait till the last second or if you have to draft one pick it in the last two rounds right before or after kicker as you see fit (I go with before). Another strategy with defense is going with match ups for that week. I have won doing it both ways so whatever makes you happy but don’t stress defense and put even less concern on your kicker. You could do matchups with both if that makes you feel fancy. I have gone many of drafts without ever drafting either because the rules didn’t make me draft a certain position on draft day. So I waited to week one and dropped some of my long shots that didn’t win their job and added those players I needed. You can also build depth for a trade that way as well.
11. Don’t be afraid to trade. So many times I hear about trades that could have been made that one gets gun shy on. If you have depth trade two good for one great or a bench player on your team for a need on your team. We talked about value and we all make our own value up when it comes to players and how important they are. So you know some is short a back, well know you might have a piece they will give up something for. I find a couple trades a year where I get extra off another teams needs. Look for them and pay attention to what players get hurt and what team has him, which is also another time someone might make a trade they don’t think better off.
12. Last one for you guys and this is the most important one, ready for it, you sure, it’s easy, And Have Fun! Talk a little noise to each other; make fun of team names and draft picks and pretty much anything else except family. The best leagues are the ones that everyone stops being sensitive in and just let it loose. This is your time to shine and show everyone that you can be a General Manager in the NFL too. Start with the draft and go all the way to the award show. That is right have an award show at the end of the season with trophies and some laughs. Get together for the draft and do something different. I am in one we do the Putt-Putt Masters (Yes we have a jacket but its red). Another one we rent a limo and find the draft order by different games at different bars. The league will be whatever you make it, so make it fun. So live it up, let go and enjoy my fellow Fantasy Football players, this is our time.
