Flying completely under the radar amidst the extreme hype train that is the Conor McGregor show, Rory MacDonald and Robbie Lawler will once again square off, this time with Lawler’s welterweight title on the line.
A revitalized Lawler earned the nod in their first fight by close split decision, and managed to carry that momentum on to the first of two title challenges against Johny Hendricks, where he successfully claimed the strap the second time around. Since ending up on the short end of the stick against Lawler, MacDonald has also gone on a run of his own, picking up three convincing victories utilizing a variety of tools, looking more and more like the future champion many thought him to be since he made his way to the UFC as a promising young prospect.
UFC 189: Lawler vs MacDonald Fight Preview and Analysis
Despite lacking promotion, the rematch between these two at UFC 189 will no doubt be intriguing.
Robbie Lawler (25-10 MMA, 10-4 UFC, +155 underdog)
Lawler has always been known as a dangerous puncher, possessing some of the best power striking in MMA. However, in the past few years since his UFC return, he has shown an incredible improvement to his overall game, truly transforming himself into an elite mixed martial artist. The once one-dimensional Lawler has learned to taper his pace, mixing speeds and putting very fluid combinations together that keep his opponents on the back foot. Most notably, the more frequent usage of kicks and knees has really allowed Lawler to transform from a pure brawler to a premier technical striker. Evidence of this can be found in his bouts with Bobby Voelker (where he scored a brutal head kick KO), his current opponent Rory MacDonald (where he utilized a powerful left body kick from his southpaw stance), and former champion Johny Hendricks (whom he picked apart with a variety of low kicks, body shots, and knees from the inside). Simply put, Lawler is dangerous when opponents allow him to close the distance and mix up his shots.
Aside from his excellent striking, Lawler has shown off greatly improved takedown defense during his recent run. Originally from a grappling background, Lawler seems to have gone back to his roots a bit to finely tune his sprawl game, which not only keeps most opponents from getting in deep on their shots, but also sets up some devastating offense for Lawler, as he showed off in his bouts with Josh Koscheck and Jake Ellenberger. As for intangible attributes, Lawler is extremely durable and usually able to keep up a solid pace for the duration of his bouts. Even when he slows down a bit, he never stops moving forward.
Rory MacDonald (18-2 MMA, 9-2 UFC, -175 favorite)
MacDonald truly symbolizes the next generation of mixed martial arts; he doesn’t come from any single martial arts background, but was brought up from the ground level training all aspects of MMA. He is extremely well rounded and, under the tutelage of Firas Zahabi, has learned to adapt to his opponents and is capable of employing a variety of successful strategies to exploit his oppositions weaknesses. The cornerstone of his game centers on his excellent use of range and movement, and that is highlighted by his pinpoint jab and fluid footwork. He rarely finds himself cornered or in a compromising position, and conversely is very efficient at taking away opponents strengths. His ability to neutralize opponents is one of the best in the game. Other than the jab, MacDonald also employs of crisp straight right from the orthodox stance, and also employs a variety of kicks that keep his opponent guessing. He is very measured and rarely overextends himself.
What makes MacDonald truly dangerous however is his excellent ability to transition from his striking into powerful, efficient takedowns. Once on top of opponents, he is far from a staller, constantly working his solid ground and pound and trying to advance position to set up his dangerous submission game. His cardio has looked very good in most of his bouts, however only one of them (his most recent bout against Tarec Saffiedine) was scheduled for five rounds. All in all, it’s tough to find a more complete mixed martial artist than Rory MacDonald.
The Final Prediction
This is a truly fantastic title fight. The rematch is very intriguing to me because in my opinion, had Lawler not scored a knockdown in the third round of their first bout, he most likely was on his way to losing a decision. Outside of his mistake in the final round, MacDonald executed his gameplan very well, and I could definitely see him looking to do the same this time around. Lawler needs to fight inside of MacDonald’s jab to have extended success, and while he undoubtedly will be able to have spurts of success throughout the fight, I believe MacDonald’s movement and methodical approach will make it difficult for Lawler to sustain an edge. MacDonald will be able to use Lawler’s forward movement to create the angles he needs to counter, as well as set up some timely takedowns. I also believe as the fight goes on, MacDonald will be able to parlay his takedown’s into extended time on top, which will make things increasingly difficult for the champ.
Lawler isn’t to be counted out here, and should MacDonald falter we could very well see Lawler edge him out, and naturally he is also capable of scoring a knockout blow at any time. However, I think Rory will control pace and distance here, slow the fight down to his speed, and will just be too unpredictable for Lawler, which is why my pick here is Rory MacDonald by decision.
