Welcome to the Week 13 Fantasy Baseball Stock Report. Let’s take a look at some players whose fantasy stock is on the rise, and some whose stock is on the fall.

WEEK 13 FANTASY BASEBALL STOCK REPORT

WEEK THIRTEEN PLAYERS’ STOCK ON THE RISE:

César Hernández, OF/2B/SS, Philadelphia Phillies

Whenever Chase Utley comes back, it’s going to be hard for the Phillies to keep Hernández out of the lineup. He’s been getting regular playing time at 2B (sometimes SS) for about a month now, and in that time, he is slashing .362/.423/.436 with 17 R, 10 RBI, and 11 SB in 105 PAs.

He doesn’t offer much more than speed, but as long as he keeps getting on base at a decent clip, he’ll stay at the top of the lineup, which should get him decent run production (even on the Phillies). Be wary of the AVG, however. His BABIP during his hot streak is .453, which is bound for regression, but considering his speed and ability to make contact, it’s plausible to think he could maintain a BABIP in the mid-.300s. Bottom line: ride the hot streak and enjoy the multi-positional eligibility while you can, but be ready for a dip in AVG as well as playing time.

Mike Montgomery, SP, Seattle Mariners

After a few rough years in the minors, Montgomery sort of became the afterthought in the “James Shields for Wil Myers” deal back in the winter of 2012. After shifting him to the bullpen in Spring Training, the Rays shipped Montgomery to the Mariners in exchange for right-handed starter Erasmo Ramirez, and so far, it has worked out for both clubs.

Montgomery has been especially good. Since his call up in early June, he has posted quality starts in five out of seven starts (he fell one out short of a QS in his last start) en route to a 1.62 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 31 strikeouts over 50 IP. He’s turned it up a notch in his last three starts too. In that span, a span that includes two complete game shutouts, he has given up just one run and posted a 19:5 K:BB ratio over 24.2 IP.

The biggest knock on him fantasy-wise is that he doesn’t strike a lot of guys out (5.58 K/9), outside of a 10 K head-scratcher versus the Royals, arguably the toughest team in the MLB to strike out. Also, peripheral stats suggest he may be getting lucky, and his SIERA (4.28) and xFIP (4.16) reflect that. His BABIP against (.221), HR/FB against (3.9%), and soft contact percentage 15.6% are abnormally low, while his left-on-base percentage (86.6%) is abnormally high.

Buyer beware. I’d ride the streak in deep leagues, but in shallower leages, I would carefully play the matchups.

Miguel Sano, 3B, Minnesota Twins

We insist that this is the last fantasy-relevant prospect that is going to be called up this year. Of course, as soon as this is published, the Dodgers will probably call up Corey Seager. Currently, Sano is an exciting prospect, and he’s looked pretty good in his first week in the big leagues; he’s taking walks, driving the ball, and playing good defense. Technically he’s not playing any defense (DH), but it’s still not bad defense, right?

He hasn’t homered yet, but once he gets going, look out. This guy has 80-grade raw power. For those of you unfamiliar with scouting lingo, that’s the highest score possible. His power is Bryant or Gallo-esque: what they call “light tower power”.

He should already be owned in all keeper and dynasty formats, but if he’s available in your league and you need some power, go ahead and grab him. He even has SS eligibility on some sites.

Ervin Santana, SP, Minnesota Twins

Fresh off of an 80-game suspension for PEDs, Santana, threw eight innings of two-run ball against the Royals on Sunday. He allowed just three hits and issued three walks to his eight strikeouts against the Royals (again, a very tough team to strike out). Is he an ace? Nope, but he certainly can be relevant in mixed leagues. I expect him to put up numbers similar to, if not better than he did with the Braves last year. Think somewhere in the ballpark of an ERA around 3.70-3.90 with almost a strikeout per inning.

Also keep an eye on:

Gerardo Parra, OF, Milwaukee Brewers

Adam Lind, 1B/DH, Milwaukee Brewers

Mitch Moreland, 1B/DH, Texas Rangers

Brett Anderson, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

Andrew Heaney, SP, Los Angeles Angels

Cody Anderson, SP, Cleveland Indians

WEEK THIRTEEN PLAYERS’ STOCK ON THE FALL:

Joey Butler, OF/DH, Tampa Bay Rays

Joey Butler is just 3-for-20 so far in July, but in his defense, it’s hard to get into a rhythm when Grady Sizemore is inexplicably eating into your playing time. I say “inexplicably” because Butler has had a fine season (.299/.345/.451 in 197 PAs), so it is beyond me to be able to figure out why the Rays would bother picking up an outfielder on the wrong side of 30 who appears to have very little left in the tank. I have nothing against Sizemore as a player, or person, for that matter, but if I own Joey Butler in any leagues, I have to be feeling pretty frustrated.

Mike Bolsinger, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

I wrote about Bolsinger a few weeks back as a player whose stock was “on the rise”, and since then, he has earned a quality start just twice in eight tries and has only pitched at least six full innings twice. So yes, it is probably my fault he hasn’t been as good as of late (though he’s really only been lit up once). What I said about him before still stands, however. He doesn’t have overwhelming stuff, but he’s probably going to stick in the rotation of one of the best teams in baseball. He would probably be racking up wins if he could make it through the fifth inning.

The New York Mets Hitters

Sure, it might be lazy writing to just say “the Mets are struggling”, but I feel it is worth mentioning that the only borderline-relevant Met hitter right now is Wilmer Flores. Flores is only borderline relevant because SS is really bad.  Curtis Granderson had a pretty decent hot streak near the end of June, but he is 5-for-his-last-30, and is still hitting just .250 on the year.

Santiago Casilla, RP, San Francisco Giants

The Giants gave Casilla a few days off after an outing on July 1 in which he gave up three runs without recording an out, saying he had “general soreness” and they wanted to rest him. Well, it looks like they woke him up a little too early, because he returned to the mound on Monday only to give up another run while recording just one out against three hitters. Casilla’s days as the Giants primary closer may be coming to an end. He owns a 3.30 ERA to go with a 1.40 WHIP, not to mention four blown saves and a walk rate north of 9%. His only hope is that Sergio Romo, the presumed next in line, is not that good, and has struggled in the closer role in the past. If Casilla gets demoted to middle relief and Romo gets promoted to closer, very few would be surprised if Romo struggled and the two were subsequently flip-flopped again. In other words: both should be owned purely based on volume of saves, but neither are very good.

Also keep an eye on:

Marcell Ozuna, OF, Miami Marlins

Steven Souza Jr., OF, Tampa Bay Rays

Jesse Chavez, SP/RP, Oakland Athletics

Chi Chi Gonzalez, SP, Texas Rangers

Mike Leake, SP, Cincinnati Reds

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