On paper, League One looks to be at low ebb for the oncoming season. A quick scan of the promoted teams from the past six seasons shows the class and stature that can reside in the third tier of the English pyramid. Norwich, Leeds, Southampton, Brighton, Wolves, Preston, not to mention the newest addition to the Premier League: Bournemouth. The only club, probably, possessing similar gravity is Sheffield United.
The relegated teams should not strike fear into the middle clubs of League One, but provide hope that this could be the most open season in a long while. Blackpool look to be a club heading in an irresistibly downward spiral, and whilst Wigan and Millwall both possess large budgets, substantial pedigree at this level and have taken huge managerial risks. Gary Caldwell and Neil Harris have managed a mere 18 games between them. Whilst taking over soon-to-be-relegated teams, their win percentages at the back end of last season are both a disappointing 20%. A look at the relegated teams from the Championship demonstrates that League One can be an incredibly difficult adjustment; Barnsley and Doncaster were underwhelming whilst Yeovil plummeted straight down to League Two in a disastrous campaign under Gary Johnson and Terry Skiverton.
Burton, Bury, Shrewsbury and Southend are the contingents making their way up from League Two. Of those four, I would expect Bury to finish the highest as they have made a real statement of intent in the early stages of the transfer window. Peter Clarke will add a huge amount of experience in defence, whilst Leon Clarke and Tom Pope are proven goalscorers at this level. His 23 goals in 34 appearances at Coventry prove that he will add firepower, especially alongside Tom Pope who has joined from Port Vale. Pope scored 33 goals in Vale’s promotion season from League Two (2012-13), scored 16 in 2013/14 and top scorer again last season, despite his injuries. Burton and Shrewsbury both enter the League in great form, with young managers looking to press on. However, I predict that they will both struggle, especially Burton, of whom I am unsure as to whether they will have the quality to survive, despite their consistency in League Two. The best thing about Southend being promoted was the likelihood that we will see Adam Barrett back at Priestfield. Captain in the Championship winning season in 2012/13, under Martin Allen, Barrett was an immensely popular figure at the Gills due to his passion and work ethic and, whilst he struggled in League One, he will get a rapturous reception home – and away – this season from the Gillingham contingent.
Gillingham are one of the plethora of teams that established themselves as a competent performer at this level. With Cody McDonald upfront there will always be goals, and now there is a real class to the spine of the team with unknown, youthful quantities throughout. In John Egan (22), Bradley Dack (21), Rory Donnelly (23), Bradley Garmston (21) and – fingers crossed – Max Ehmer (23), the Gills have classiness about their play which is only going to progress and improve, as the difference in form last season showed.
The Justin Edinburgh factor is pivotal. Peter Taylor brought many of the above players to the club and, for that, he deserves immense praise. However, there is seemingly little doubt that the upward trajectory instilled by Martin Allen had not only stalled, but backfired, to use a horrendously worn automobile cliché. It was not only his win record of 23 in 67 since taking over in October 2013; his negative tactics engendered a poisonous atmosphere within the fans and apathy was beginning to rule. The style of play was dull and tightly restrained, in contrast to the fluidity that was evidenced when the self-styled ‘Gang of Four’ took over and continued under Justin Edinburgh. If he can keep this form going into the new season then there is absolutely no reason why Gillingham cannot, against the bookies odds of a joint-third furthest of 14/1 (Skybet), challenge at the top end of the table.
Of course, there is a very long way to go; signings must be made, football matches must be won. No doubt Leyton Orient were talking up their team even more at this point last year. But, Gillingham are always under the radar and this could suit them. This isolation is also of geographical interest. Away fans will rack up close to 9,000 miles in travelling next season; however this also turns Priestfield into a trek for the majority of opposing teams. It would be great to see a similar home record to Mark Stimson’s reign (preferably if we can avoid duplicating the away statistics – not winning a game away all season directly causing relegation in 2009/10)
Either way, the League One season on 2014/15 looks set to be a tight affair throughout the table. I do not expect runaway leaders such as Bristol City or the top four or so to pull away like MK Dons and Preston did throughout last season.
If I was going for a table prediction at this stage I would go for the following (I look forward to being proven horrendously wrong in May…):
Sheffield United
Barnsley
Bradford
Peterborough
Wigan
Gillingham
Doncaster
Swindon
Bury
Millwall
Oldham
Fleetwood
Chesterfield
Coventry
Rochdale
Southend
Scunthorpe
Walsall
Port Vale
Shrewsbury
Crewe
Colchester
Burton
Blackpool
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