Back in 2012 Roy Hibbert’s star was well and truly rising.
He was a twenty-five year old All-Star who, per basketball-reference, had just posted 12.8 PPG and 8.8 RPG during the regular season and 11.7 PPG and 11.2 RPG in a postseason that saw his Indiana Pacers win their first playoff series since 2005.
Free agency that offseason brought a four-year, $58 million contract, the final year of which Hibbert’s just opted into, much to Larry Bird’s dismay.
Bird and the Pacers are hoping to adopt a more modern approach to the game moving forward, perhaps as a result of watching the Golden State Warriors play small-ball in this year’s NBA Finals. They’re not the only ones though, as, driven by analytics, the modern NBA is finding it increasingly difficult to accommodate big men incapable of shooting the ball, making free throws and spacing the floor. Being a dominant force on the defensive end of the floor is all well and good, but nowadays it’s not enough – bigs simply must do more.
Take a look at Anthony Davis, for instance. The guy can score, he can rebound, he can block shots, he can dunk, he can handle the ball, he can pass, he can hit free throws, he can jump, he can run the floor and now he’s adding a three point shot to his game.
Sure he’s more of a power forward than a center, but he’s a star for the next incarnation of the game and before long all big men may be forced to develop a similar skill set or risk losing minutes to guys like him, Draymond Green, Kevin Love or even Paul Millsap.
Playing small increases a team’s offensive capabilities, enabling it to trade rebounding and rim protection for greater tempo, better floor spacing and, most importantly, shooting. This is what Indiana hopes to achieve by utilising Paul George’s ability to play at either forward position. Assuming he’s able to make a full recovery from the broken leg that sidelined him for most of last season this makes sense, especially when you consider how effective LeBron is when he shifts to the four.
So where does that leave Hibbert?
Well, it seems as if he and the front office in Indiana is currently involved in something of a standoff, as Hibbert’s going to get paid while Larry Bird and co. are likely to try and do whatever they can to find a new home for their seven-footer while their opponents are looking to fill roster spots ahead of the new season.
Teams like the Dallas Mavericks, the New York Knicks and the L.A. Lakers all have enough cap space to absorb a contract like Hibbert’s and if the Pacers are truly desperate to rid themselves of him they may just end up flipping him to one of those teams for little return.
That said, the Mavericks, who just lost Tyson Chandler to free agency, may be the most likely destination for Hibbert, especially if owner Mark Cuban fails to land LaMarcus Aldrige and DeAndre Jordan, two free agents he’s been chasing hard. Alternatively, if the L.A. Clippers fail to retain Jordan’s services they may use the cap space left behind to go after Hibbert.
Because of Hibbert’s limited offensive game, he suddenly finds himself lagging behind the likes of Chandler and Jordan, who are both quicker and more effective in pick-and-roll situations. Arguably, Enes Kanter and Robin Lopez, who have better post games (even if the former is a liability defensively), are currently out pecking him in the pecking order too, while even supplementary centres like, say, Kosta Koufas, who cost considerably less and demand fewer minutes and touches, may seem more appealing to penny-pinching general managers across the association.
Despite the recent influx of young, talented big men – punctuated by this year’s number one overall pick, Karl-Anthony Towns – it’ll be interesting how much money players of this nature command as more and more teams come to trust the small-ball approach, especially if said players are predisposed to a game like Hibbert’s, rather than, say, Davis’.
As the tide turns, we can probably expect to see an array of Davis-esque big men (versatile 6’10”, 220 pounders who can do a little bit of everything) flood the league as GMs everywhere look to pair them with three-and-D forwards who they in turn surround with shooters and a point guard who can penetrate at will.
Assuming this is the future of the NBA, archetypal centers (man-mountain Roy Hibbert included) could soon be consigned to the bench; mere role-playing journeymen who command short-term, low paying deals that see them eat up fewer minutes and get called upon only when the chips are well and truly down.
Andrew Bogut, a center who was forced to the bench while his Warriors won an NBA title, is a perfect example of this and he’s a better defender who has more offensive weapons than a guy like Hibbert could ever wish to develop.
In order to ensure he’s able to maximise his minutes going forward, Hibbert’s going to have to continue working on his post game and crash the offensive boards with greater regularity.
Ever since that 2011-12 season his offensive game’s been in decline and last year he averaged just 10.6 points and 2.1 offensive rebounds per game (the lowest since his rookie year). Furthermore, his field goal percentage has settled at around the .440 mark (in 2011-12 it peaked at a career-high .498) while his offensive win share was at 1.0 last year (well down from 3.2 in 2011-12), even though his usage rate remained relatively high (21.3 %).
Whether this numerical decline is down to Hibbert, Indiana or the ever-changing NBA landscape is unclear, but in a post-centre game that’s getting smaller by the year big men with limited skill sets are likely to find themselves increasingly marginalised.
But then that’s what evolution’s all about. Adapt or face extinction – those are the options. And for a guy like the twenty eight year old Hibbert, who once hoped his legacy would involve at least one NBA championship, the former currently seems far less likely than the latter, at least in the eyes of Larry Bird.
