Well, it was an active July 1st after all for the Detroit Red Wings. After kicking the tires on Mike Green for most of the day, they acquired the 29-year old defenseman on a 3-year, $18 million contract and checking center Brad Richards on a 1-year deal for $3 million.
In this article, we’ll focus with the big fish and what his game centers around: offense and possession.
For reference:
Corsi—>shots on goal + missed shots + opponent blocked shots (excluding empty net).
Fenwick—>shots on goal + missed shots (excluding empty net).
Corsi For%—>100 x (shot attempts for / shot attempts for + shot attempts against)
Fenwick For%—>100 x (unblocked shot attempts for / unblocked shot attempts for + unblocked shot attempts against)
Corsi For% close—>(when team is within one goal of their opponent in periods 1 and 2, or tied in period 3)
Mike Green, three years, $6 million per year with Detroit Red Wings
— Pierre LeBrun (@Real_ESPNLeBrun) July 1, 2015
Yes Hockeytown, Green is the right-handed defenseman that you have all been waiting for since Brian Rafalski retired after the 2010-11 season. Two years before Rafalski retired, Mike Green was in his fourth season in 2008-09 for Washington after being drafted with what was the Detroit Red Wings’ first round pick in the 2004 draft acquired in the Robert Lang deal.
All Green did was score 31 goals and put up 73 points. He was just 23 years old.
What did he do for an encore? 19 goals and 76 points in 2009-10. This kid was impressive, but also was playing on a couple amazing Washington Capitals teams. Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and Alex Semin(remember when he was good) scored a combined 277 points in 08-09 and in 09-10, that increased to 294. The team placed 3rd in goal scoring (272) and 20th in goals against (245) in 08-09, so it was a high-octane attack that took its lumps on defense.
In 2008-09 Green himself posted a Corsi-For percentage of 57.3%, the 2nd highest of his career that was set the previous season. His Fenwick-For was 55.7, indicating all the shots that got through to the net and ended up hitting the twine. Green’s Relative Corsi percentage at even strength took a drop-off from the previous 07-08 season, from +5.2 to +2.2 along with his OZ start% increasing from 47.7% to 51.9%, indicative of Washington’s run and gun style. They saw him as an offensive weapon, and putting him in more offensive situations did historic wonders.
2009-10 saw Green’s point total rise and his defensive zone starts increasing to 50.5%, a trend that would fluctuate with him spending more time starting in his own blueline as his career progressed. Still, he enjoyed another 70+ point season with the sky seemingly the limit for the 24-year old.
But, his career entered a downturn after his quick rise to stardom. Injury troubles limited Green to a combined 81 games from 2010-12, in which he totaled 11 goals and 31 points and fell down the defensive core. A change in head coaches did not help either, as Dale Hunter was brought in after a 12-9-1 start and Bruce Boudreau‘s latest playoff flop in getting swept by Tampa Bay in 2011.
This change, coupled with being off the ice more than on brought Green’s ability to make an impact down tremendously, even when he did play. His Even Strength Corsi per 60 minutes played fell from +18.7 in his 31-goal season to +4.5 at the end of his 2012 season. He started in the defensive zone 54.7% of the time in the 32 games he played in 2011-12, a career high that he was not accustomed to.
The lockout-shortened 2013 season saw the team fire Hunter and bring in Adam Oates, another coach that liked to use Green moreso in the defensive zone(52.4%). The 2013 season was arguably the worst stretch of Green’s career in terms of possession, playing in 35 of the 48 games posting a Corsi For percentage of 48.7%, a -2.8 even strength Corsi per 60 minutes, and a Fenwick For percentage of 48.5%. Worst yet, his Corsi for per 60 minutes fell almost 20 attempts from his 2009 campaign. This could be in part because the Capitals as a team struggled in terms of shot attempt differential, finishing 21st in that category at a -107 mark. Green himself posted 12 goals and 26 points, a solid season offensively in the amount of games played despite the bad possession numbers.
Coming into 2013-14, a big key for Green was health with his previous three shortened seasons. Green showed his best durability since 09-10, suiting up for 70 games, but in comparison to the 09-10 campaign when he played in 75 contests, his defensive zone starts were up 3.1%. His offensive numbers were down as an effect, but respectable with nine goals and 38 points for a player getting back into the grind. His relative even strength Corsi ratio went up from -3.4 to +4.4, and his Corsi per 60 minutes went up to +4.8. His overall Corsi for% increased to 52.2%, and his offensive zone start% was the 2nd lowest of his career. Still, the Capitals finished 24th in Shot attempt differential and ended up missing the playoffs, leading to Oates getting fired and Barry Trotz taking over.
With Brooks Orpik and Matt Niskanen getting signed in the offseason, Green was bumped down to the 3rd pairing with Nate Schmidt to begin the 2014-15 season. Trotz brought his defensive philosophy with him from Nashville, and Green seemed to thrive along with the rest of the team in his role. He posted ten goals and 45 points, his best Fenwick ratio (+5.2) since 2008-09, and pretty even Corsi(53%) and Fenwick(53.2%) percentages. It was the first time both were over 53% since the 31-goal campaign. His offensive zone starts were up 1% as well. Courtesy of @MimicoHero, here is an illustration of what Green’s numbers last year projected him as, albeit in a more limted role as a bottom pair defenseman under Trotz.
Mike Green -> DET – $6MMx3. Like this deal a lot pic.twitter.com/MhLxReVUmf
— Domenic Galamini (@MimicoHero) July 1, 2015
What does this mean for the Red Wings? Well, Green seems to be regaining his form as he stays healthy(knock on wood). He likes structure, and he thrived under experienced ones with Boudreau offensively and with Trotz moreso all-around. Coming to Detroit, Jeff Blashill has hinted that he will start with Danny Dekeyser on the 2nd pairing, a young up-and-coming defender that set a career high in points last season with 31. That isn’t the only exciting part. Dekeyser playing top-four minutes posted a Corsi-for percentage of 54.2% and Fenwick-for percentage of 53.4%. Both he and Green could prove quite the possession combo come October, and dominant possession player Mike Green is the 29-year old at his best. The Wings also finished first in Corsi-for% in close games at a 56.26% clip, so as mentioned before, having structure will help the newest Red Wing defenseman.
His price tag does not come cheap at $6 million per season for three campaigns, yet the key number here is term. The Wings will not be pinched when it comes to signing some younger defensemen in the near future with Green signed for just three seasons. Xavier Ouellet, Alexey Marchenko, Dekeyser and more will likely command big salaries, and with Green leaving the fold it shouldn’t be too much of a problem in the future. However, a move will likely be made to ease the logjam of defensemen the Wings have currently because it’s stacked to the brim.
For the next three years however, the Wings should love having the luxury of taking minutes off of the aging Niklas Kronwall with an infusion of an experienced right-handed shot(!!!), something that had eluded them and General Manager Ken Holland for years.
Until now.
Stats courtesy of hockeydb and hockeyreference, term definitions courtesy of NHL.com
Tweets courtesy of Pierre LeBrun and @MimicoHero
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