The 2015-2016 season is approaching and everyone assumes their team will be undefeated. However, for Boise State fans, their Broncos have a legitimate shot of going undefeated. In fact, the Broncos usually have a pretty good chance of going undefeated each year. In 2004, they had a regular season undefeated record then lost to Louisville by four in the Liberty Bowl. In 2006, they went 13-0 beating Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. They had another undefeated regular season in 2008 and then lost to TCU in the Poinsettia Bowl, followed by a 14-0 season with a Fiesta Bowl win over undefeated TCU. Not to mention four other one-loss seasons in between. Luckily for the Broncos, this new playoff system allows them to lose and potentially still make a New Year’s Six game as they did last season; but let’s not risk it again.
Many people are worried about losing Jay Ajayi and introducing a new starting quarterback for the second year in a row, but there seem to be two front-runners: last season’s backup–Ryan Finley, and incoming freshman Brett Rypien. Finley, a redshirt sophomore, has more experience than Rypien, but that experience wasn’t super stellar (27 ATT, 44% passing, 161 yards, two touchdowns, one interception). We don’t know too much about Rypien, at least not compared to the assumed favorite Finley, but he was a 4-star quarterback. Regardless of who gets the starting spot, whichever has the best leadership skills should eventually lead the team. With Finley’s recent arrest, he may not be the best leader for the Broncos at this time.
Boise State fans should be excited about this season’s schedule (other than the fact that it opens against their former coach, Chris Petersen, and the Washington Huskies). Their first four games include three potentially difficult games and an FCS game. They also play the weakest of the three non-division teams in the Mountain West (Hawaii, San Jose State, and UNLV), who collectively won fewer conference matchups than Boise State last season (6-18 vs. 7-1). Yes, it’s a new year, but Hawaii has won six or less games in the last four seasons, San Jose State has won six or less games in seven of the last eight seasons, and UNLV has only had three seasons over six wins since 1985. I don’t believe in an “easy win,” but these three games come pretty close.
Now, some may argue that looking back that far isn’t fair because teams change all the time, but looking at just the previous season isn’t always fair either. Boise State went 8-5 in 2013 and the next year went 12-2. So as I predict Boise State’s upcoming season, I will mention the opponent’s record from last year (and MWC record), along with their overall records since 2010. I will also include the series matchup between the two schools since Boise State became Division I-A in 1996 (excluding Idaho State due to its being an FCS team). All series matchup numbers come from Winsipedia.
Boise State Football 2015 Season Preview
Boise State vs. Washington (Sept. 4th)
Last Season: 8-6
Since 2010: 38-28
Series Matchup: 2-1 Washington
Last Winner: Washington
Because this game is the Broncos first season opener on The Blue Turf since they beat Oregon in 2009, I believe they will be super pumped to open up in front of the home crowd. However, the last three seasons have shown that the Broncos often struggle with the first game jitters. Throw on top of that, it is a Pac 12 school being led by their former head coach, Chris Petersen. It should be a fun game and I believe the Broncos will come out on top, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they lose in a close game. Then again, it’s hard to fight against the 95-3 home record since 1999.
Boise State at BYU (Sept. 12)
Last Season: 8-5
Since 2010: 41-24
Series Matchup: 4-1 Boise State
Last Winner: Boise State
This is another game the Broncos should be worried about. BYU’s Taysom Hill can be a devastating player to deal with. The last time the Broncos faced Hill, he racked up four touchdowns on 339 passing yards and 69 on the ground (which is one of his weaker rushing games in his career) in the Cougars only win against the Broncos. However, the Broncos defense is almost the same personnel as last season with Correa being the potential biggest Hill stopper. Again, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if BYU pulls this one off. Then again, Hill is coming off of another season-ending leg injury in three years. This will be the Broncos toughest game of the season (until the Fiesta Bowl).
Boise State vs. Idaho State (Sept. 18)
Last Season (FCS): 8-4
Since 2010: 15-42
There isn’t a whole lot to talk about here other than the fact that Idaho State is an FCS team and Boise State is 17-2 historically against FCS schools, their last loss coming in their first season as a Division I-A (FBS) team in 1996. The last two meetings with the Bengals, Boise State came away with a 49-7 win (2008) and a 62-0 win (2003). Needless to say, it could be a bloodbath and a nice rest after the two toughest games of the season.
Boise State at Virginia (Sept. 25)
Last Season: 5-7
Since 2010: 23-38
Series Matchup: No previous matchups
This matchup is slightly intriguing due to the fact that these teams have never matched up before and Boise State has only had four total ACC matchups (2-2 overall, 1-1 vs. Louisville (not ACC at the time), 0-1 vs. Boston College, and 1-0 vs. Virginia Tech), which also doesn’t give us a fair assessment. Based off of Virginia’s decent performances against other non-Power Five teams (including a 1-1 record with BYU in the last two seasons) and their previous records, it might be a challenge for Boise State. However, Boise State will be well into the season and have worked out all the kinks so I’m anticipating the Broncos run away with it in the second half.
Boise State vs. Hawaii (Oct. 3)
Last Season: 4-9 (MWC 3-5)
Since 2010: 24-40
Series Matchup: 10-3 Boise State
Last Winner: Boise State
The Rainbow Warriors have only faced the Broncos once since 2010, which was three seasons ago. Hawaii’s last win against Boise State was in 2007 to end a six-win run by the Broncos who then went on a four game winning streak following the loss. Hawaii was once a WAC powerhouse but has been rather weak the last four seasons. With their first meeting in a few years, Hawaii will be seeking some revenge and should be coming out swinging, but Boise State will remember what Rainbow Warrior blood tastes like and come out with a strong victory.
Boise State at Colorado State (Oct. 10)
Last Season: 10-3 (MWC 6-2)
Since 2010: 28-35
Series Matchup: 4-0 Boise State
Last Winner: Boise State
Last season was a nail-biter as to which team from the Mountain Division would make the MWC championship: Boise State, Colorado State, or Utah State. Luckily Boise State beat both of the other two and made it into the championship. Had Colorado State made it in, the Broncos would have narrowly missed their third Fiesta Bowl. This matchup would theoretically be a struggle for the Broncos, but there are a few factors that should give the fans some confidence coming into the game: Boise State should be coming off of a fairly easy game whereas Colorado State will be coming off of a (potentially rough) game against Utah State. Add onto that, CSU will have a new starting quarterback this season (as will the Broncos), but will also be getting a first-time head coach in Mike Bobo. Boise State’s coach Bryan Harsin will now have two years under his belt as a head coach and will have that advantage. This will be one of the Broncos toughest conference matchups but shouldn’t be too horrible for them to handle.
Boise State at Utah State (Oct. 16)
Last Season: 10-4 (MWC 6-2)
Since 2010: 41-25
Series Matchup: 15-2 Boise State
Last Winner: Boise State
The last time Utah State beat Boise State was in 1997. In fact, since Boise State became an FBS team in 1996, the Broncos have only lost three games to any Utah school (BYU, Utah State, University of Utah, Weber State, and Southern Utah). Those three losses are to BYU in 2013 and the first two seasons the Broncos were Division I-A to Utah State. That is quite the resume going into this game (not to mention the Broncos have won 12 in a row against the Aggies). However, this will be the toughest Mountain West Conference matchup of the season (perhaps until the conference championship game, but even then it still might be).
Boise State vs. Wyoming (Oct. 24)
Last Season: 4-8 (MWC 2-6)
Since 2010: 24-37
Series Matchup: 9-0 Boise State
Last Winner: Boise State
This is the first of three fairly “easy” games for the Broncos. The Cowboys had a crazy basketball run last year, but their football team is still lagging behind. The Broncos 9-0 record against Wyoming will continue on in a calm but strong win.
Boise State at UNLV (Oct. 31)
Last Season: 2-11 (MWC 1-7)
Since 2010: 15-49
Series Matchup: 2-0 Boise State
Last Winner: Boise State
UNLV is Boise State’s first non-division opponent and it won’t be too much of a challenge. The Broncos’ non-division matchups this season consist of the three worst West Division competitors from last season. I suspect we will see a lot of second-teamers early in the second half.
Boise State vs. New Mexico (Nov. 14)
Last Season: 4-8 (MWC 2-6)
Since 2010: 13-48
Series Matchup: 6-0 Boise State
Last Winner: Boise State
Last season, this was one of the craziest games the Broncos had seen in awhile. Both teams had well over 600 yards in a game that started with two 75-yard touchdowns, practically on two consecutive plays. New Mexico had a kick return for a touchdown to open the game, and after the following kick resulted in a touchback, Jay Ajayi took a pass 75 yards for a touchdown on the Broncos opening drive. The Broncos ended up running away with the game after a 25-7 second half. I wouldn’t expect Boise State to allow that to happen again, but I would definitely expect the Lobos to come out as amped up as they were last year.
Boise State vs. Air Force (Nov. 20)
Last Season: 10-3 (MWC 5-3)
Since 2010: 34-30
Series Matchup: 2-1 Boise State
Last Winner: Air Force
Air Force gave Boise State its only conference loss last season. The Broncos dominated offensively with 467 yards compared to 335, but with nine penalties for 80 yards and seven turnovers (five interceptions), the Falcons had control of the game. Turnovers absolutely killed the Broncos in their only two losses (first loss: opening game to Ole Miss) with quarterback Grant Hedrick throwing four interceptions in both games. Hedrick only had 14 interceptions on the year and eight of them came from these two losses. This could be a rough game for the Broncos, but coming off of three seemingly easy games, they should be well prepared and as long as the avoid the turnovers, they should handle this game pretty easily.
Boise State at San Jose State (Nov. 27)
Last Season: 3-9 (MWC 2-6)
Since 2010: 26-36
Series Matchup: 10-0 Boise State
Last Winner: Boise State
The final game of the season can be rough for any team that has been doing well. However, San Jose State has never been much of a challenge for the Broncos. This should be a nice confidence booster going into the conference championship game.
Mountain West Conference Championship
Boise State vs. San Diego State (Last Season: 7-6, MWC 5-3, Since 2010: 43-24)
Series Matchup: 2-2
Last Winner: Boise State
The other division in the Mountain West is by far the weaker division. Last season’s top three (Fresno State, San Diego State, and Nevada) all lost to Boise State and lost their bowl games. Fresno State even had the pleasure of losing to the Broncos twice on the blue turf last season. My guess is whomever the Broncos play, it will be at Albertson’s Stadium and will be a fairly weak opponent. As a result, I give this one to Boise State in a close fought game, probably to San Diego State (but quite possibly Fresno State again).
Fiesta Bowl
Boise State vs. Florida State
Obviously this is a hope, but many expect the Broncos to be penciled in as the Group of Five winner at-large bid annually, which would most likely be the Fiesta Bowl based on location. And why not put them in the Fiesta Bowl? Financially it is a smart choice for the money-grabbing business of College Football. Even if the Broncos are 13-0 at this point, I find it hard to believe that the Playoff Committee will put a Group of Five team into the four-team playoff this early into the system. If they do, it seems to defeat the purpose of the Power Five/Group of Five division. So don’t expect to see the Broncos in the Final Four this next season no matter what their outcome.
The opponent is a shot in the dark at this point but a Florida State-Boise State Fiesta Bowl might be a great preview to the 2019-2020 home-and-home between the two. It’s hard to bet against Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl…so I’ll leave this one alone for now.
So will the Broncos go undefeated this year? I would like to say yes, but with potential losses to Washington, BYU, or Utah State, I wouldn’t be surprised if they come out of this season 12-2 or 13-1. But I’m not writing their undefeated season off, but we’ll find out soon enough. 14-0 is a definite possibility!
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