Five-star small forward Jayson Tatum is unofficially the best player in the class of 2016, and is thought to be close to deciding which one of the four remaining teams he will choose to play for. In fact, Tatum is internally down to two teams, although he will not tell who the two are. The importance of his recruitment news boils down to two factors.
The Teams
In the beginning of April, Jayson Tatum announced he was cutting the list of schools that he would consider to four: Duke, North Carolina, Kentucky, and St. Louis.
St. Louis, huh?
Well, yes, and it’s not as crazy as you might first think. Tatum is from St. Louis, Missouri, and has family roots there. His mother and father both attended St. Louis. We see top recruits stay home every year, even when they have bigger programs vying for their talent in a different time zone. Admittedly, those less-prestigious programs are usually in some sort of major conference. St. Louis plays in the Atlantic 10, which is up-and-down each year.
The Billikens have had some recent success, though. Under Rick Majerus in the 2011-2012 season, they went 28-6. After Majerus — who was one of the best basketball tacticians of all time — suddenly passed away before the 2012-2013 season, the Billikens responded with back to back 28-7 seasons under present head coach Jim Crews. Crews, now in his third year, had a rough season with his young team, going 11-21. That said, Crews has proven to produce when talent is on the roster, so last year’s rebuilding season should not affect anyone’s outlook on St. Louis.
Another plus for Tatum would be the freedom within the offense in which he would have at St. Louis. That’s a big deal for a guy that can score at any given moment in the game.
Tatum going to St. Louis would send shock waves across the college basketball world. Not to mention other big time talents like Harry Giles and Josh Jackson would have to follow up their recruiting process after a commitment like that. It would also put a lot of pressure on Tatum to take the young Billiken squad to the NCAA Tournament, which is not a given for anyone. The other three teams on his list would be safer options for a chance at the tournament.
Well, that’s not entirely true. North Carolina has been investigated thoroughly by the NCAA for months now, and has Level I academic violations connected to their hoops program. While it is difficult to tell what type of punishment will be handed down by the NCAA, — scholarship loss, postseason/TV bans, and/or vacated wins are all typical punishments — uncertainty could be a huge factor in any big-time recruit’s decision, especially for one that is looking to commit rather early like Tatum. The Tar Heels lost 2015 five-star small forward Brandon Ingram due to the question surrounding the program and their academic ethics. It seems unlikely that Tatum will be taking his talents to Chapel Hill.
The other two teams in Tatum’s final four are notorious for using the “one and done” tactic — which is a perfectly viable tactic by the way.
Kentucky has had a plethora of one and done players since head coach John Calipari arrived in 2009, and Tatum could certainly be the next guy on that list. Tatum would really be the first high-scoring small forward in Calipari’s time at Kentucky, and could see a lot of freedom in Calipari’s dribble drive offense. Tatum will also get prepared for the NBA at Kentucky, which is another positive that he could consider for the Wildcats. Calipari said in a recent conference call that he wants all of his players to be “All-Stars” in the NBA, and Tatum’s ultimate goal is to be one of the best in the league.
Duke is the unannounced favorite for Tatum, and for good reason. Mike Krzyzewski has been the head of the great Blue Devil program for 35 years now, and he has found recent success in getting scoring small forwards to commit to Duke. Justise Winslow and Brandon Ingram are the latest that come to mind, and Tatum could be the next. Duke won the national championship last year, and will look to repeat this season with a new cast. An early Tatum pledge could get the ball rolling for Duke’s 2016 class.
The Timing
The latest trend in basketball recruiting has been the timing of commitments, especially for high profile recruits. Waiting until the late signing period — spring of a recruit’s senior year — to commit has become the norm in the last few classes. This has much to do with the uncertainty surrounding whether top NBA prospects will be staying in school or entering the draft.
For example, after Kentucky’s Final Four run in 2014, many of the Wildcats that were expected to be lottery picks in October decided to stay in school. Well, head coach John Calipari already had a star studded class coming in. All of a sudden, the new Wildcat recruits saw themselves coming off the bench and getting their minutes cut. To their credit, they bought into the team goals and didn’t complain, but the situation was not ideal. Calipari’s 2015 class thinned itself out in fear of a repeat of the year before; only three recruits signed with Kentucky — two five-stars and one four-star.
In effect, the recruiting season has pushed itself backwards. High profile recruits are playing the waiting game, seeing where their position will open up on their final list of teams. This has caused zero fluidity in the recruiting process, and making it very back-loaded. What Tatum can do to this recent trend in basketball recruiting is reverse it. His persona and ability alone give him this chance because other players gravitate toward him. If Tatum does commit early as reports say, it could make a drastic wave for the rest of the class in which other top prospects could follow suit.
Of course, we saw the class of 2015’s number one recruit Ben Simmons decide to attend LSU rather early in the process. His commitment could not get the ball rolling for the rest of the class, though. Will Tatum set the pace for the 2016 class?
