What are the most important games for the Tennessee Volunteers in 2015?
With games starting to get slotted by the networks and fans starting to make travel plans, let’s look at the most important games – and why they’re important – for Butch Jones and the Volunteer program for the upcoming season.
For the purposes of this ranking, I have removed the five games I think are “must wins” for Tennessee: Bowling Green, Western Carolina, North Texas, Kentucky and Vanderbilt. A loss to any of these teams would be a tremendous blow to the forward momentum the program has built.
That leaves seven remaining games: home vs. Oklahoma (Sep 12th), at Florida (Sep 26th), home vs. Arkansas (Oct 3rd) and Georgia (Oct 10th), at Alabama (Oct 24th), home vs. South Carolina (Nov 7th), and at Missouri (Nov 21st). The criteria for ranking importance hinges around two things: contending for the SEC East championship (which I think will require fewer than three conference losses) and continuing to show improvement and momentum in the program.
1. at Florida (September 26th): If Tennessee is going to compete for the East, you have to imagine the teams chasing Missouri and Georgia will be the Vols, Florida and South Carolina. To challenge in the East, Tennessee must beat the Gators. But this game is more about the psychology of the program than anything else. While Alabama is Tennessee’s natural rival, Florida has been the program’s nemesis since Knoxville-area native Steve Spurrier took over the reins in Gainesville. The timing is right: a new coach at Florida, an away game that allows the team to focus and not get caught up in the home-game festivities (see 2014 Tennessee-Florida) and what I believe to be a favorable schedule up to that point. If Tennessee doesn’t beat Florida this year, the record might be better but the psyche won’t.
2. (tie) South Carolina (November 7th), at Missouri (November 21st): These two games are equally important. South Carolina is the one good team Tennessee has had success against the past two years. The Vols will look to keep that momentum going. South Carolina is one the mid-level SEC East team (along with Tennessee and Florida) that Tennessee has to beat to challenge for the division championship. Missouri is a team that Tennessee just cannot find any luck against since the Tigers joined the SEC. Plus, Missouri is the two-time defending SEC East Champion, so for Tennessee to challenge for the division crown they can’t afford to lose any even-odds games because of their schedule. Both of these games are later in the season and their value will likely be obvious by the time kickoff rolls around. Neither of these games will be as hyped as Florida, Georgia, Alabama or (likely) Arkansas, but they are critically important nonetheless.
3. Arkansas (October 3rd): This game is important for two reasons. First, to compete in the East, Tennessee cannot afford to drop a game against the second-best West team they will play. Tennessee and Georgia are the only two teams that play Alabama out of the West, so you would assume that they have the toughest draws – with Georgia’s being a little tougher. Secondly, it seems that Arkansas and Tennessee are the two teams on the steepest upwards trajectory in the conference right now. An early win against Arkansas will keep Tennessee in the headlines and keep the recruits visiting.
4.Oklahoma (September 12th): Tennessee’s one chance to establish itself on the national scene outside of the conference will be September 12th at Neyland Stadium as Coach Bob Stoops brings the Sooners into town. Tennessee seemed to mature in the second half of last year’s game at Norman. With a light weekend nationally, expect additional media attention and possibly even a GameDay visit to Rocky Top for this game. With Stoops’ constant swipes at the SEC, it would be extra special for the Vols to dash Oklahoma’s perennial national championship hopes earlier than normal.
5. Georgia (October 10th): Georgia is once again the favorite in the East, in part due to their tremendous stable of running backs. People forget that Tennessee was one play away from victory in 2013 and one drive away from victory last year against Georgia. While this game is important, it’s not nearly as important as Tennessee being able to separate itself from the other mid-level East teams in Florida and South Carolina. A Tennessee team with a 6-2 conference record (losses to Alabama and Georgia) has a chance to get to Atlanta, which should be the real goal here. If 2015 continues the Butch Jones momentum, Georgia will be the most important game in 2016.
6. Alabama (October 24th): Most people are still writing off Alabama as a “we’re not there yet” loss. But remember a few things. First, Alabama is Tennessee’s natural rival. Second, Tennessee played the Tide extremely tight in the last three quarters of last year’s game after Josh Dobbs relieved starter Nathan Peterman at quarterback and the defense figured out that the Amari Cooper fellow was a decent player. And Tennessee has a bye week before this game as well. One more thing, just like with Florida, this being an away game benefits the still-young Vols team as it allows them to focus on the game and not get caught up in too much hype as they should roll into Tuscaloosa at 5-1 or 4-2. This could be Butch Jones’ signature win at Tennessee. What’s more likely, however, is that – like Georiga – Jones continues to build the program and Alabama becomes the most important game of the 2017 season.
Agree? Disagree? Share your opinions below or with #VolNation on Twitter and make sure you tag @MikeL_LWOS.
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