If you haven’t followed tennis for too long you might wonder how on earth Rafael Nadal has two Wimbledon titles. To say the least the last few years on grass have been somewhat horrendous from the Spaniard having failed to make the quarter-finals at The Championships since 2011, where he went on to make the final ultimately losing the title and his world number 1 ranking to Novak Djokovic. To make matters worse Nadal is having his worst ever season on tour since 2005, even on his beloved clay he’s only managed to pick up a single title this year. Overall I’m sure many of you aren’t expecting much from the world number 10 when he returns to South-West London in just under two weeks, but when it comes to Rafa, there is more about his play than meets the eye.
In two of his previous three Wimbledon early exits, Nadal has rather been bossed off the court by the big hitters Nick Kyrgios and Lukas Rosol, two guys who possess an immense amount of firepower. But in the other year, 2013, serve and volleyer Steve Darcis, hardly a player known for his aggression did the same on Court 1 dispatching the former world number 1 in straight sets. With no disrespect to any of those three men, Nadal has simply not played a style of tennis at Wimbledon since 2011 that is threatening enough to take control, the style of tennis which took him to titles in 2008 and 2010.
So why do I think this year will be any different? Well, despite it being an ATP 250 event we saw Nadal improving rapidly every match in Stuttgart, from struggling against Marcos Baghdatis and Bernard Tomic in the round of 16 and quarter-finals he went on to comprehensively beat French showman Gael Monfils and Viktor Troicki for his first title on grass in four years. Near the end of the tournament not only had the Spaniard cut down on the errors, but the serve looked more threatening than it has all year and he wasn’t frightened to be the aggressor on court instead of sitting back, a tactic which has worked wonders for him on the clay over the course of his career but hasn’t worked at Wimbledon.
This is the first time since 2005 where Nadal is coming into Wimbledon without a slam won earlier in the year, having lost just his second match at Roland Garros to Novak Djokovic just a few weeks ago. What will perhaps hurt more however is the fashion he lost it in; after a competitive first set, Djokovic ran away with sets two and three 6-3 6-1, not good for confidence with the Spaniard looking completely out of sorts in the third. To add to that at the other major this year Nadal found himself also comprehensively beaten 6-2 6-0 7-6 by Tomas Berdych, a man he had beaten in their 17 prior meetings.
Nadal’s confidence will no doubt be hindered from many of his losses this year, especially the ones in slams, but this just puts more emphasis on how big his win in Stuttgart was. Despite losing his first round match to world number 79 Alexandr Dolgopolov at Queens just two days after winning Stuttgart, I believe this won’t have a noticeable impact. As mentioned earlier, in Stuttgart Nadal managed a high level of play in the latter rounds but perhaps more importantly gaining confidence was the bigger key, and there’s no doubt he gained a lot of it there. Of course it would have helped if he managed to get a few more matches at Queens but it’s not as much of an issue as it would be had he not played the week before in which case he would be going into Wimbledon without a grass court win for the third consecutive year.
Lets not forget about the draw however, the first few rounds have always been somewhat tricky for the two-time former champion. Despite falling early the last few years even in 2010 when he took the title he had to come back from two sets to one down twice in the first three rounds. Given how the grass plays the first week of Wimbledon it’s probable that he can be outhit by big hitters if he draws them. if Nadal is up to the task however, serves well, and stays the aggressor he can keep this to a minimum and decide his own fate.
As for the latter rounds Nadal will be seeded 9-12 for the first time in a major. This means he will draw a 5-8 seed in R4. Unquestionably this will make Nadal’s route to the quarters even harder from the draws he’s accustomed having been a top 4 seed over the last decade but if Nadal and the 5-8 seed he’s projected to play both make the second week Nadal will be the favourite, albeit perhaps just a slight favourite based on experience given none of the others have won a slam. Of course if he does make the quarter-finals you would think he’ll most likely have to face Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Roger Federer, or Stan Wawrinka. The courts at Wimbledon by this time in the second week will no doubt play far slower than at the beginning of the tournament helping the Spanish number 2 but it still may be a step too far as all four of those great players will be heavy favourites.
Ultimately what to expect from Nadal at Wimbledon relies on a fair amount of factors–his draw, style of play, confidence levels and what not. I personally believe he will put aside all his disappointments this year and start a fresh page; his performance in Stuttgart was a nice starting point on his quest for a third Wimbledon title and I wouldn’t be surprised if he built off this at the All England Club.
Nadal is as determined as ever to get himself back right at the top of the game and Wimbledon will be the key starting point to get his year back on track. He won’t be invincible the first week, in fact nowhere near, but I fully trust the Spaniard to navigate through and put up a decent fight in the second week. Asking Nadal to make the semis or further could be asking for too much but draw depending I expect Nadal to lose in the quarter-finals for the third major in a row this year. If the draw opens up then who knows, the Spaniard has proved to be a force on the grass in the past, especially in the second week, and if his confidence can only keep increasing match by match he could be in for his best slam result of the year.
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