In this article, we discuss the Week 11 Fantasy Baseball Surprise Players whose performances many fantasy owners may be missing if they are only reading the headlines from week to week. These are players that may be overachieving and may deserve more attention, or they could be players that are surprisingly underachieving. Fantasy owners are making moves every week and are always on the lookout for the free agent pickup that will carry them to the title. Additionally, fantasy owners may be overlooking players that are currently in their lineups, yet they are not producing.
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Jon Lester, SP, Chicago Cubs
When the Cubs signed Lester over the off-season, they immediately sent the message to the rest of major league baseball that they were ready to compete for the postseason. Lester has averaged over 180 SO with a 2.91 ERA over his past 3 full seasons of work. The veteran left hander has called the hitter friendly AL East division his home for the first 7 seasons of his major league career (until mid-season 2014 when he was traded to the Athletics). Wrigley Field which with the exception of the days when the wind is clearly blowing toward the outfield is a pitcher friendly ballpark. Combine the ball park factor with the move from the AL to the NL and there was plenty of excitement available for potential fantasy owners entering 2015. Unfortunately for the fantasy owners that invested in Lester on draft day, he has struggled thus far in 2015. Over 79 IP this season Lester has a 3.99 ERA, and a 1.37 WHIP, both marks are well over his 3 year averages. Unfortunately for Cubs fans and fantasy owners, the top ace of the Cubs rotation has only managed a mediocre 4-5 record through the 2nd week of June. With the struggles thus far this season, fantasy owners should be advised to look a little deeper at Lester’s performance thus far before making rash decisions. He is still proving that his put away pitches are working with an 8.43 K/9 ratio to date, and he has managed to generate more ground balls this season with a 1.68 GB ratio vs. a 1.27 ratio over the past 2 seasons. Additionally not only has his velocity been consistent with last season, his opponents BABIP is extremely high (.347 season to date) which indicates less batters will find their way on base when making contact the rest of the season. When examining Lester’s performance this season, there is still reason to feel confident that he is likely to be the anchor of the Cubs rotation that they were seeking when they signed him this past off-season.
Jeff Samardzija, SP, Chicago White Sox
This past off-season the White Sox made a rare venture into free agency to acquire what they believed to be an ace to pair with Chris Sale in their rotation. Samardzija joined the White Sox following what to date was a career season with the Cubs and Athletics in 2014. Samardzija spent the 2012 and 2013 seasons building his case for top starter status with the Cubs, and yet in 2014 he took a dramatic leap forward, and was eventually traded to the Oakland A’s when they were making a run at the postseason. In 2014 Samardzija accumulated 202 SO over 219 IP, and posted a career low 2.99 ERA along with a sensational 1.07 WHIP. After cashing in with his first major pay day in major league baseball with his signing with the White Sox, many fantasy owners were excited about Samardzija’ s potential in 2015. Thus far this season however he has not lived up to that perceived potential with a 4.84 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. He has only managed a 4-4 record this season while giving up 11 HR over 13 starts. On a positive note Samardzija has kept his walk rate down with a career low 1.65 ratio on the season, and his high .335 BABIP may be an indication of improvement on the horizon. And yet, according to his 3.92 FIP, and 25.2% line drive rate this season (both of which are career highs) it appears that Samardzija is just getting hit hard this season. Fantasy owners should be concerned that Samardzija’s start to the season may be a representation of how the rest of the season is likely to go for the hard throwing right hander.
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