Today, it is Thursday which means it is my turn to share my opinions and ideas which are leading me to set my 6-18-15 Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks. The values are based off of DraftKings and based off the contests that start at 7:05 PM EST.
Disclaimer: The below picks are subject to last minute line-up decisions and weather.
Starting Pitchers
Chris Archer, SP, Tampa Bay Rays, $10,500
Coming into this season, it looked like Archer had the opportunity to take the next step forward and become an elite pitcher. Not only has he become an elite pitcher, he has absolutely crushed his opposition. He comes into tonight’s start with a 2.00 ERA/2.08 FIP and an absurd 11.30 K/9. Playing away from Tropicana Field should not hurt his performance as he has a 1.32 ERA on the road this season.
This could also be one of the last times he could be available without having to pay north of $11,000. He was actually valued at $11,800 during his last start but has dropped down due to him coming off a sub-standard start (in the context of his 2015 totals, 16.2 points compared to a 26 point average this season).
Clay Bucholz, SP, Boston Red Sox, $8,100
On the surface, it appears that Bucholz is not pitching very well this season as he is 3-6 with a 4.22 ERA. However, his surface numbers are more encouraging as he also has a 2.79 FIP and 9.23 K/9. With the Red Sox playing on the road tonight, this should help him out as he has pitched better away from Fenway Park.
Even though there is enough room in my budget to target Shelby Miller along with his 5-2 record and 2.02 ERA, I am going to pass for tonight. Beyond these shiny numbers lies a respectable but not as good 3.34 FIP and a modest K/9 of 6.48 indicating that the ceiling is lower for him than it is for Bucholz.
Catcher
Jonathan Lucroy, C, Milwaukee Brewers, $3,700
For Brewers fans such as me, this 2015 season has not been very good. The Royals have had better fortune going to the World Series, having a strong follow up 2015 season and are on pace to represent the American League in the All-Star game.
For one night, there is legitimate hope that at least the Brewers bats may show up as the Royals will be facing Jeremy Guthrie who has not been very effective this season (5.79 ERA/5.51 FIP). Since returning from injury, Lucroy has been hitting better as he is hitting .300 during the month of June and has hit better against right-handed pitching this season.
First Base
Logan Morrison, 1B, Seattle Mariners, $3,700
Next to Guthrie, Ryan Vogelsong is arguably the weakest of the starting pitchers available in tonight’s slate of games (4.81 ERA/4.96 FIP). On the surface, Morrison has had a respectable but not great year at the plate as he is hitting .258 with 8 HR and a wRC+ of 107. However, those numbers are weighted down by the fact that he has struggled against lefties. Against righties, he is hitting .279 and he has hit all of his HR against right handed pitching.
Second Base
Jason Kipnis, 2B, Cleveland Indians, $4,800
Kipnis has bounced back in a very impressive way from a sub-par 2014 season. This year, he has hit .333 overall with 5 HR and 10 SB. He has been even more impressive against righties (the Indians face Jason Hammel tonight) as he has hit .390 against right handed pitching this year.
Third Base
Kyle Seager, 3B, Seattle Mariners, $3,700
Seager is on track for another solid season as he is hitting .275 with 11 HR and a 123 wRC+. Over the course of his career, his batting average is 29 points higher against righties than it is against lefties.
Shortstop
Brandon Crawford, SS, San Francisco Giants , $3,900
Crawford is in the midst of a breakout season as he is hitting .282 and has a 134 wRC+. Even though it is only June, he is only 1 HR away from breaking a career high total that he set last year. Tonight, the Mariners are starting LHP Mike Montgomery. This works strongly to Crawford’s advantage as he has hit .380 with 3 HR in 55 PA against lefties this season.
Outfield
Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers, $4,500
While it appears that his days of hitting .300+ are behind him, there still appears to be plenty of power left in Braun’s bat. Braun has the chance to take advantage of a favorable pitching matchup. Another thing working in his favor is that he has taken well to being on the road as he has hit .275 with 10 HR in 113 PA away from Miller Park.
Seth Smith, OF, Seattle Mariners, $3,400
Smith is another player whose potential is higher than what his modest price tag indicates due to the fact that the Mariners will be facing some mediocre right handed pitching tonight. Overall, Smith has acclimated himself well in Seattle as he is hitting .263 with 5 HR and a 130 wRC+.
Gerardo Parra, OF, Milwaukee Brewers, $3,300
Parra came into this season expected to serve in a 4th outfielder role. With Khris Davis injured and Carlos Gomez being injured on and off, Parra has had plenty of playing opportunities. Parra has held his own hitting .282 with 4 HR and a wRC+ of 104. He has been solid against righties this year, hitting .285 and his Home/Road splits have been very consistent.
All statistics found on fangraphs.com
All statistics through 6/16/15
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