“Nobody ever remembers who finished second.”
It’s a common adage in sports culture. The phrase is meant to inspire an individual or a team to perform at their highest possible level to ensure victory. In a world as results-oriented as sports is, finishing first is all that matters. Winning is all that matters.
But in some cases, that statement can be completely disregarded as nonsense. Malarkey. Bologna. Sometimes, it just doesn’t fit. One such case is that of the 2014-2015 Tampa Bay Lightning, whose Stanley Cup dreams met an end on Monday night when they were defeated in Game Six of the Final by the Chicago Blackhawks.
In doing so, they finished second. By the logic of one of the most used sentences by those who partake in or observe any form of sports, they will (or should) be forgotten in short order.
But if you consider yourself a dedicated hockey fan, you shouldn’t let yourself forget about just how good this Lightning team is. Because I guaran-frickin’-tee this is not the last we see of them in the Stanley Cup Final.
Allow me to explain my reasoning. Without even mentioning the ages of the players involved, let’s take a look at what Tampa Bay has in terms of a core, all contract numbers are courtesy of generalfanager.com
Signed Through 2020:
- Ryan Callahan, RW, $5.8 million cap hit
Signed Through 2019:
- Anton Stralman, D, $4.5 million cap hit
Signed Through 2018:
- Valtteri Filppula, C, $5 million cap hit
- Jason Garrison, D, $4.6 million cap hit
- Matthew Carle, D, $5.5 million cap hit
So here we have the five Lightning players with the most term left on their contracts. Of the five, three of them are critical to the future success of the Lightning. It’s interesting to note that none of these players, outside of Stralman, are members of what I would consider to be Tampa Bay’s core.
Stralman at his price tag is the very definition of a bargain. He’s unquestionably a top pairing defenseman, and he’s elite in terms of driving play. Callahan is a guy I would ride or die with as my third line right winger if I’m building a championship team. His cap hit is too high, but if you swap Callahan’s and Stralman’s cap hits, you’re paying pretty much fair value for each of these two players.
Filppula is another player I see potentially being a part of this team for the long haul. He’s 31 years of age, but his style of play is one that should age well. The problem is that he’s a top-six forward on a team that has Steven Stamkos and Tyler Johnson playing his position. If Stamkos is seen as a right winger long term, then Filppula can be his center. Filppula could also slide in as a left winger next to Stamkos if the latter stays at center. If Filppula is the third line center long term, it’s hard to imagine Tampa Bay being willing to pay $10.8 million in cap space per season for two-thirds of a great third line.
Between Filppula, Garrison, and Carle, something’s got to give. All three are on the wrong side of 30, and with raises for Tampa Bay’s main core coming up soon, it’s very difficult to imagine all three playing out their contracts as members of the Lightning. The good thing for General Manager Steve Yzerman is that the Lightning could easily survive with none of them, and with the strong prospect pool Tampa Bay boasts, depth players like these are luxuries that the Lightning really don’t need to be successful. I’m sure that Yzerman sees the value in veteran leadership though, and due to this I’d be highly surprised to see all three moved anytime soon.
This brings us to the core.
Signed Through 2017:
- Tyler Johnson, C, $3.3 million cap hit
- Ondrej Palat, LW, $3.3 million cap hit
- Brian Boyle, C, $2 million cap hit
- Victor Hedman, D, $4 million cap hit
- Ben Bishop, G, $5.95 million cap hit
- Andrei Vasilevskiy, G, $925,000 cap hit
In my mind, 2017 is what constitutes the end of Tampa Bay’s guaranteed window of Stanley Cup contention. I do have full faith in Yzerman to make the necessary moves to extend this window by a few more years, but this is what he’s guaranteed himself.
With what they have under contract beyond next season, Tampa Bay has five forwards (Boyle, Johnson, Palat, Filppula, Callahan), four defensemen (Carle, Stralman, Garrison, Hedman), and two goalies (Bishop, Vasilevskiy) locked in at a combined price tag of $44,875,000 in cap space. That may seem like a lot, but none of those contracts are albatross types that can’t possibly be moved. The flexibility to move two or three of those expendable expensive pieces (Bishop, Carle, Garrison, Filppula) is absolutely there.
Signed Through 2016:
- Steven Stamkos, C, $7.5 million cap hit
- Nikita Kucherov, RW, $711,666 cap hit
- Cedric Paquette, C, $633,333 cap hit
- Jonathan Drouin, LW, $894,166 cap hit
- Alex Killorn, LW, $2.55 million cap hit
- J.T. Brown, RW, $950,000 cap hit
- Braydon Coburn, D, $4.5 million cap hit
The situation with the forward group is going to get very interesting in Tampa Bay at next season’s conclusion. The fact that they will be paying less than $4 million combined for the services of Kucherov, Paquette, Drouin, and Brown next year is just absurd. That will be hugely valuable to their team next year.
The Lightning have an expensive blueline though. If they go into next year with Hedman, Stralman, Carle, Coburn, Garrison, Andrej Sustr, and Nikita Nesterov as their seven, that will be about $25 million on their defense.
Here’s what their depth chart could look like with what they have under contract, then I’ll follow that up with a look at how the talent in their prospect pipeline could alleviate their salary cap issues:
Killorn – Stamkos – Drouin
Palat – Johnson – Kucherov
Filppula – Namestnikov – Callahan
Boyle – Paquette – Brown
Hedman – Stralman
Coburn – Carle
Garrison – Nesterov / Sustr
Bishop / Vasilevskiy
Tampa Bay has a luxury in that what we’re seeing here in the NHL depth chart isn’t all the organization hast to offer from a talent perspective. Their prospect pool is loaded.
Anthony DeAngelo possesses a skill set highly similar to that of Carle, and if Carle is moved, DeAngelo’s ELC could offer a cheaper, younger replacement after next year.
Vasilevskiy has the upside to be a considerably better goaltender than what Bishop currently is, and for two more years (probably five assuming a three-year bridge deal) Vasilevskiy will also be a much cheaper option. If Bishop is moved out in a trade, Latvian sensation Kristers Gudlevskis is fully capable of taking over the reigns as backup, again at a cost effective price.
Up front, Vladimir Namestnikov and Adam Erne appear to be players who will be contributors at the NHL level. If the salary cap forces the Lightning to part ways with, say, Killorn at some point, the Lightning will have the youthful options up front to adequately replace him.
I think it’s safe to say that the core of Stamkos, Jonathan Drouin, Johnson, Palat, Kucherov, Hedman, Stralman, and Vasilevskiy (know what all of those players outside of Stralman have in common? Drafted/signed originally by the Lightning. Drafting and developing works) is going to stay intact. Stamkos is an unrestricted free agent next year, and there’s rampant speculation about his potential departure, but I don’t see there being a reality in which Yzerman doesn’t do everything he can to keep his captain. That core is pretty much five first line forwards, two top pairing defensemen, and a highly probable starting goaltender. There isn’t a team in this league that can match that at this moment, and there probably won’t be anytime soon either.
Everything else Tampa Bay has is gravy, and their gravy is also much better than pretty much any other team’s gravy.
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