On Saturday night Fabricio Werdum submitted Cain Velasquez to become the undisputed heavyweight champion of the world. It was an incredible performance, and one that opened up a number of new possibilities for the heavyweight division.
Since Velasquez won the title from Brock Lesnar in 2010, only Junior dos Santos and Antonio Silva have fought with Velasquez for the legitimate title. Now there are four strong contenders at the top of the division hoping for the next shot at the belt. It’s an exciting time, but there is a good chance it will not last.
UFC’s Larger Weight Classes – A Bleak Future
Fabricio Werdum is 37-years-old and the chasing pack are not a youthful bunch either. Andrei Arlovski is 36, Stipe Miocic 32, Cain Velasquez 32, and Junior dos Santos 31.
The average age of the heavyweight division is over 33-years-old. The average age of the top 15 is 37. Heavyweight is not a weight class packed with developing prospects. In fact, with only 33 fighters on the roster, it’s not a weight class packed with fighters full stop.
The light-heavyweight division finds itself in a similar position. They too have 33 fighters on board, with an average age of nearly 32-years-old. Their top 15 have an average just under 36.
The next four UFC events have not a single fight booked above middleweight. Over the next seven events – 70 fights booked in total – only three are from the two heaviest weight classes.
Two divisions with small rosters that are packed with ageing stars and very few fighters who could even be considered prospects at this point.
We were reminded numerous times on Saturday night that whoever holds the heavyweight title belt is the “baddest man on the planet”. We have also witnessed over the years the light-heavyweight division promoted as the company’s marquee weight class. The majority of the UFC’s bigger pay-per-view draws have fought above 185 pounds. Why then does it seem like so little is being done to preserve the health of the light-heavyweight and heavyweight divisions?
Recruitment Policy Should Serve Need Over Want
One explanation could be a lack of available talent above middleweight. Jaycen DeNorscia — the creator of OctaRank — has invested plenty of time into following the careers of prospects in both divisions, and believes there are fighters that could be bought in should the UFC adopt a different recruitment policy.
“Red Auerbach is known as the greatest Coach and General Manager in NBA history. He was responsible for the drafting of Bill Russell, who won 11 titles in 13 seasons. Auerbach was known for drafting need over want.” said DeNorscia when I asked him about the depth of talent that could be signed.
“This is something with which the UFC currently struggles. They’re signing a lot of welterweights, and good ones too, undefeated with championship potential, but what they really need are heavyweights and light-heavyweights.”
DeNorscia’s full list of undefeated fighters outside of the UFC serves to show that options are out there. It is easy to suggest that those outside of the UFC are not of the required standard, but when the company has 100 lightweights on board it is hard to take any “UFC calibre” argument seriously.
It is also not unheard of for fighters in any division to blossom at an unexpected rate once given the opportunity to fight in the UFC. Give a fighter a steadier form of contracted work, pay them more than they were getting elsewhere, and they have more to invest in their training, both in terms of time and money.
Pump investment into most things and they will improve. UFC’s weight classes are no different in that respect. More opportunities and more fights create a greater incentive to develop a career. Why would any talented, large, athlete feel compelled to try and make a career out of mixed martial arts when the industry leader is barely hiring in the first place?
TURNING SMALLER FIGHTERS INTO GENUINE STARS
The decline of the larger divisions would be a less alarming prospect if the UFC had a greater track record with turning their smaller fighters into major stars.
While the lightweight division might be the largest in terms of volume, it has only ever had one genuine pay-per-view draw in B.J. Penn. It should not be forgotten either that a large part of what turned him into a draw in the first place was what he had done against Matt Hughes and Georges St-Pierre in the division above.
Ronda Rousey and women’s MMA aside, 155 pounds downwards has no truly organic drawing fighters of note. No wonder that so much stock has been put into Conor McGregor’s upcoming bout against Jose Aldo for the featherweight title at UFC 189. Should it live up to expectation, the event could triple the numbers done on pay-per-view by Aldo in the past. The importance of that number cannot be understated.
The UFC finds itself at a significant crossroads. Do they follow the path of investment in the proven marketability of the light-heavyweight and heavyweight divisions?
If not they need to learn quickly how to turn smaller fighters into major stars capable of generating greater pay-per-view and merchandising revenue. The UFC’s history suggests that is going to be a task easier said than done.
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