For the month of June, Last Word On Sports will be covering each team in our 30 in 30 series. Once a day, we take a look at an NHL team’s past season, what their off-season looks like, and what they could hope to achieve before the start of their 2015-16 season. Everybody wants to get better and improve upon last season’s success or downfall and NHL’s 30 in 30 gives you that analysis and preview you need to get you by during another long and grueling summer season. 30 days in June, 30 teams to cover. Starting on June 1st we start from the bottom and make our way to the very top.
Today’s team: The Dallas Stars. Check out our previous 30 in 30 articles here.
NHL’s 30 in 30: Dallas Stars
Finishing 19th overall, the Dallas Stars posted a record of 41-31-10 to end up with just 92 points. Their home record (17-16-8) accumulated for only 42 points, and it was the same record as the San Jose Sharks away numbers, who were featured in yesterday’s article. Unlike most of the stories of non-playoff teams, the Stars road record (24-15-2) was a complete contrast in a good way, as they were the best team away in the non-playoff group. The Stars were even better than some of the teams in the playoffs, including the Winnipeg Jets and Pittsburgh Penguins. Their shoot-out record was slightly above average at 4-3, and the team went 7-3-0 in their final ten games of the season. Unfortunately, the Stars fell seven points shy of the Winnipeg Jets for the final wild card spot.
The 2014-15 Regular Season
Hoping to replicate the 2013-14 season when they become the Cinderella story of the post-season, the Dallas Stars took a step back last season, narrowly missing out. The goaltending was slightly below average expectation-wise and defensively they were exposed, however the Stars have an interesting crop to work with. The team boasts a solid group of offensive players in their prime, a few veterans who can both contribute and help out with experience, and a core of upcoming prospects who are extremely talented. The Stars have cap-room to work with, should they explore the option of free agency on July 1st, but they don’t necessarily need to be adding much to improve for next season.
The combination of a premier scoring winger and one of the best centers in the game today is the perfect description of Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin. Benn put up 87 points (35 goals, 52 assists) in 82 games to win the scoring title this year. Seguin, who put up more points-per-game than Benn, played 11 less games – ten due to a knee injury and one for disciplinary reasons. At 31, Jason Spezza may no longer be a premier center in the NHL, but he looked exceptional at the number two spot behind Seguin. This allowed him to get favorable match-ups and while his points-per-game total was somewhat low, his puck possession numbers were a career-high. A big reason why the depth down the middle on the top two lines was able to score at will was the effort of Cody Eakin. Taking on tough assignments and favorable defensive zone starts, it allowed the top scorers on the team to do what they do best – score.
Over the past two seasons, only two players have managed to record at least 50 points and 300 penalty minutes – Steve Downie and Antoine Roussel. At the age of 24, Roussel has become one of the more frustrating players to match up against, due to his ability to agitate and be a consistent contributing player. Ales Hemsky, who played with Spezza in Ottawa for a short while, was expected to slot in on his wing and contribute. When that didn’t happen, Hemsky lost his spot and averaged just over 13 minutes a game after that. Another forward that struggled to put it together was Travis Moen, who came over in a trade for defenseman Sergei Gonchar. In 34 games with the Stars, the grinding forward averaged under ten minutes per game and had clearly lost more than a few steps at the NHL level.
22-year-old rookie John Klingberg stepped into the league and played a big role for the Stars. His 11.2% shooting percentage was huge and his 22 minutes of ice time was an important factor for the Stars blueline. Trevor Daly played a significantly larger role last season and faltered because of it, showing some of the worst advanced statistics among any defenseman in the league who played a minimum of 500 minutes. Alex Goglioski was another big reason for Dallas’ production on the back-end, putting up 36 points (4 goals, 32 assists) in 81 games. Despite making the team out of training camp Patrik Nemeth missed most of the season with an arm laceration. Upon returning, Nemeth did not look out of place and was a stable presence on the blueline.
Kari Lehtonen has been good for the Dallas Stars in the past few seasons and while it’s hard to put all of the blame on the goaltender for missing the playoffs, his career-low .903 save percentage on a team that excelled at controlling the puck is a good indicator as to why the Stars struggled. At 31, it’s a wonder if Lehtonen will be able to bring his compete level back up to where it should be. In order to provide some stability, the Stars will need a reliable back-up. One option is to retain Jhonas Enroth. If not, a few names could be available, such as Karri Ramo, Curtis McElhinny and Robin Lehner.
General Manager Jim Nill was off to the races on the trade surface, striking two deals in the month of November. First, he sent veteran defenseman Gonchar to Montreal in exchange for Moen. Then, he landed defenseman Jason Demers and a 2016 3rd-round pick for Brenden Dillon. In February, Nill gave a boost to his goaltending depth by sending Anders Lindback and a conditional 2016 3rd-round pick to Buffalo for Enroth, a clear upgrade. Finally, Erik Cole was sent to Detroit along with a conditional 2015 3rd-round pick for a pair of 22-year-old prospects, Mattias Backman and Mattias Janmark, as well as a 2015 2nd-round pick.
The Off-Season and Free Agents
Heading into the off-season, the Dallas Stars have a total of seven free agents to decide on. Of the seven free agents, three are restricted to the team; Forward Curtis McKenzie, and defensemen Patrik Nemeth and Jyrki Jokipakka. Forwards Shawn Horcoff, Rich Peverley and Patrick Eaves, and goaltender Jhonas Enrth are the upcoming unrestricted free agents. In terms of non-roster players, Nill will have to decide on four restricted free agents and one unrestricted free agent.
Heading into next season, the Stars have twelve forwards, five defensemen and one goaltender under contract, totaling at just under $55 million on the cap. This leaves Nill with about $14 million to spend, likely to add one top-six forward, a top-four defenseman and a back-up goaltender.
Forwards like Justin Williams and Michael Frolik could cost a pretty penny. If Nill prefers to save some of his cap instead, suitable options like Matt Beleskey and Joel Ward could be explored. It’s likely that Horcoff, Peverley and Eaves will test the free agent market, but the Stars are also hoping Valeri Nichushkin can stay healthy and provide some more offense for them. Providing more youth with the 20-year-old Nuchushkin are Brett Ritchie (21) and Curtis McKenzie (24), both of whom could be on the roster on opening night.
It will be interesting to see what happens with the defensive core heading into next season. Quite a few names are headed to free agency, like Christian Ehrhoff and Paul Martin of the Pittsburgh Penguins. However, if Nill is more inclined to build within the organization and give the youth a chance to crack the line-up and even play a role in the top-four, Julius Honka and the 6’7 man-beast Jamie Oleksiak could both be battling for a spot on the roster.
The Draft Table
Nill and his scouting staff will have some interesting choices at the upcoming draft, as the Dallas Stars hold six picks, including the 12th overall selection. Despite having no third-round pick this year, the Stars will pick twice in the top-50. In all the Stars select 12th, 49th, 103rd, 133rd, 163rd and 193rd.
Going by TSN’s Bob McKenzie’s final rankings, defenseman Zach Werenski is in the 11th spot, followed by Timo Meier, Kyle Connor and Jakub Zboril. Crazy things tend to happen during the draft, like consensus 2nd overall Seth Jones dropping down to 4th, and some experts believe that with some strong showings of prospects expected to go just outside the top-10 at the combine, names like Pavel Zacha and Matthew Barzal could slide. Either one of those names would be a dream come true for Nill and Stars fans, however Connor is likely a safe bet for them.
At the 49th pick, it’ll be intriguing to see who is left at that point. A pick in the top-50 could become a real gem, given the team has a reliable scouting team. Of the names floating around, forwards Alexander Dergachyov and Zach Senyshyn are two big names to look out for, as both combine good size and skill. Defensemen Guillaume Brisebois and Matthew Spencer could be excellent choices if Nill explores selecting a blueliner at that pick. One name to look out for that may drop is defenseman Nicolas Meloche, who could go anywhere from 40-50. The 6’4, 200+ pound blueliner out of the QMJHL has the potential to be a top-four defenseman, granted he works on his skating. He put up 34 points in 44 games with Baie-Comeau Drakkar last season and is an excellent point-man on the powerplay.
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