New York Mets General Manager Sandy Alderson said it himself last week: it’s “very possible” that top pitching prospect Steven Matz would have already been up with the big club had it not been for the logjam in their rotation. With little left to prove in the hitter’s league and ballpark Matz calls home for now in Las Vegas, reasonable expectations for his Major League debut should be somewhere in the vicinity of late June to first week of July.
Matz has been nothing short of brilliant pitching for Triple-A Las Vegas this season, compiling a 6-4 record with a 1.94 ERA and allowing only 4 home runs through twelve games. Matz is tied for Pacific Coast League lead in wins (6), and leads in ERA and strikeouts (75). Matz really should be 8-2 on the season; in his last two starts, he gave up a combined 2 earned runs through eleven innings pitched but the offense gave him nothing in the way of run support. Matz is the traditional three pitch pitcher; he features a fastball, a curve, and a change-up, all rated above average on scouts’ grading scales. Matz’ fastball sits comfortably in the mid-to-upper 90s with great location. Vegas pitching coach Frank Viola has even gone so far as to liken the young Matz to San Francisco Giants’ ace Madison Bumgarner, and to Hall of Fame pitcher Randy Johnson in regards to his command of the fastball in the strike zone.
“It took Randy years to command the strike zone with that fastball. Yes he had a great slider, but it took him years to be able to do what Steven’s doing now,” Viola said.
While Matz is still only 24, he isn’t so young that the talk of him arriving in Queens should be considered premature. Matz’ professional career took a detour when he was drafted. In 2010, he felt discomfort in his left elbow and discovered he required Tommy John surgery. Matz missed all of 2010 and 2011, yet still felt discomfort when he returned in 2012. He met once again with Dr. James Andrews, the Tommy John guru, if you will, and was told that there was no way to know if the MRI revealed another ligament tear or scar tissue, and the only prescription he could offer was to let if fly on the mound.
Matz returned to the mound in 2012 and was pain free, throwing free and easy in the upper 90s. He was back on the Mets’ map and began progressing through the organization. He made only 6 starts in 2012, and it wasn’t until 2013 that he made twenty-one starts, posting a 5-6 record with a 2.62 ERA and holding opponents to a .225 batting average against. In 2014, Matz pitched in both Single- and Double-A and went 10-9 between the two levels with a 2.24 ERA in twenty-four starts. He threw 34 more innings in 2014 for a total of 140.2. Matz should be able to throw around 175-180 innings between Triple-A and the majors once he gets the call. So far this season, he’s thrown 74.1 innings, and, if he makes two more starts for Las Vegas, that should give him around 90 innings to throw in the Majors.
So what’s the hold up? Why not call up Matz now? Matz has already started 62 games in his minor league career; by comparison, Matt Harvey only pitched in 46 games and Jacob deGrom started 58. The Super Two status shouldn’t be the reason either, as the timeline is a moving target and not etched in stone, and quite possibly might have already passed. Also, if this was the case, would the Mets have called up Noah Syndergaard in May, knowing full well that he would most likely have been guaranteed Super Two status?
The reason is clear: the Mets have too many starting pitchers right now, including a disgruntled Dillon Gee, recently demoted to the bullpen. The Mets need to look into trading one or both of Dillon Gee and lefty Jon Niese, who has one more year left on his five-year, $25.5 million deal, which will earn him $9 million next season, a reasonable amount for a serviceable 28-year-old left-hander. In a perfect world, the Mets could package a Niese, Gee, and a second tier prospect in the mold of Rafael Montero for a solid third baseman. Alex Guerrero and Aramis Ramirez’ names have been throw around lately, Guerrero being the most intriguing. Ramirez is set to retire at year’s end, but Guerrero is 28 years old and signed for several more seasons. He’s put up terrific numbers so far in his rookie season, batting .282 with 10 home runs and an OPS of .950.
Guerrero can play multiple infield positions as well, making him an attractive commodity for the Mets, especially with the uncertainty surrounding David Wright’s return to the lineup. The Dodgers are in need of back end pitching to compliment aces Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. If the Mets can put a package together featuring Niese and/or Gee along with a few prospects, while holding onto both Syndergaard and Matz, that would be ideal.
The Mets should grow around their young starting pitching. The emergence of Michael Conforto, who is mashing in Double A, should earn him a corner outfield spot in spring training in 2016. Travis d’Arnaud is on the mend, as is Dilson Herrera, so reinforcements are on the way in terms of offense. Unless the Mets are willing to trade one of their top pitching prospects for a superstar corner outfielder or young, controllable shortstop, I suggest they hold onto their core so they can develop and grow for years to come. The Mets could also look to spend in the off-season by signing an outfielder like Justin Upton, but it remains to be seen how many years the Mets would want to commit to with such a player. Considering that Cuddyer is signed through 2016, they would have to look for a trading partner to unload his contract to make room for Upton if they were to go that route. Having Upton, Lagares, and Granderson in the outfield would give the Mets the middle-of-the-order bat they desire, and a bit more grooming time for Conforto.
Matz is ready for the call. Sandy knows it. Viola knows it. The organization knows it. He has nothing left to prove in the minors, so let’s see what he can bring to the big league club. Watch for the Mets to ramp up their trading efforts within the next several weeks to make room for the next top pitching prospect to emerge from their farm system.
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