As I read Daniel Marino’s excellent piece regarding the timing of Cain Velasquez’ return, one line stuck in my head. “.. I can’t help but wonder if it has ever been this stale”.
Dan was referring to the current state of the heavyweight division. As I pondered the thought internally, I kept coming back to one question of my own. Was it really any better way back when?
With the two best heavyweights on the planet set to collide on Saturday at UFC 188 there seemed no better time to take a look back and figure that out. If today’s heavyweight division lacked depth, and had a vast gap between the top two and the best of the rest, how did the 265 pound pack from ten years ago match up with them?
To compare I have taken the heavyweight rankings from MMA Weekly in February 2005 — the closest legitimate source to June 2005 I could find — and the current UFC top ten. For reference, the fighter listed first in each match up is from the February 2005 rankings, followed by those of today. Here are the heavyweights – 2005 vs 2015.
10 – Justin Eilers vs Alistair Overeem
As February 2005 began, the late Justin Eilers had lost just twice in twelve career fights — against Dan Severn and Wesley “Cabbage” Correira — and was coming off an emphatic first round knockout of Mike Kyle in his UFC debut. It would be Eilers only UFC win, eventually remembered for the dance his legs did while giving way, following a Paul Buentello right hand at UFC 51. Still, at this point he was considered an aggressive prospect with damaging knockout power.
Most Notable Win: Mike Kyle – August 21, 2004
Most Telling Defeat: Wesley Correira – June 13, 2003
Power has often been Alistair Overeem’s downfall. While this was highlighted in recent losses against Antonio Silva, Travis Browne and Ben Rothwell, it is not a new problem for him. As far back as 2000, Overeem was knocked out cold by a Bobby Hoffman right hand that looped through his guard. That really is as good as it gets for Eilers’ winning potential, as Overeem has a significant skill edge in all aspects of MMA and has far greater wins on his resume.
Most Notable Win: Fabricio Werdum – June 18, 2011
Most Telling Defeat: Ben Rothwell – September 5, 2014
THE VERDICT – Whatever you believe the state of Overeem’s chin is at this point, he’s on a different level to Eilers and should force a stoppage in the first round. Overeem by quick TKO
9 – Heath Herring vs Ben Rothwell
At the start of 2005 we were still two years away from Herring debuting in the UFC. His Pride run had seen him come up short against the best fighters in the world — Nogueira, Fedor and Cro Cop — while picking up enough wins to put himself near the top of the chasing pack. While not quite the force he had been two – three years prior, Herring remained a tough test for most in the division combining a strong wrestling base with underrated legkicks and powerful striking.
Most Notable Win: Igor Vovchanchyn – February 24, 2002
Most Telling Defeat: Fedor Emelianenko – November 24, 2002
With 44 professional bouts under his belt, and a career that dates back to 2001, it is hard to believe that Ben Rothwell is only 33-years-old. He finally made it to the UFC in 2009 and has since traded wins and losses with some of the best heavyweights in the world. With destructive power in his hands and an imposing physical presence, Rothwell might just be at the peak of his powers with big wins over Alistair Overeem and Matt Mitrione in the bag.
Most Notable Win: Alistair Overeem – September 5, 2014
Most Telling Defeat: Cain Velasquez – October 24, 2009
THE VERDICT – It’s hard to imagine the 2005 version of Heath Herring being able to finish Rothwell, and over 15 long minutes Rothwell’s power could make this ugly. Rothwell by late Doctor’s stoppage.
8 – Sergei Kharitonov vs Mark Hunt
By 2005 Kharitonov was a four year pro with just one defeat. That had come in the Pride Heavyweight Grand Prix semi-finals to Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and bought the Russian’s record to 9-1. That Kharitonov had been able to take Nogueira to a decision in a competitive fight said plenty. Exactly when and where we saw Kharitonov’s best is hard to determine, with various high points throughout his career, but as 2005 began he was a confident and mobile fighter, capable of finishing from various positions.
Most Notable Win: Semmy Schilt – June 20, 2004
Most Telling Defeat: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira – August 15, 2004
It seems at this point in time that even the Mark Hunt of 12 months ago was a significantly improved fighter to the one we saw against Stipe Miocic in Adelaide. In your 40’s sharp declines can come at a rapid pace. Against Miocic, Hunt’s gas tank emptied in a hurry and he had no answer for a quicker and more well rounded opponent. Hunt’s next performance will give us a greater indication of whether he has past the point of no return, but that night in Adelaide was significant.
Most Notable Win: Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic – December 31, 2005
Most Telling Defeat: Stipe Miocic – May 10, 2015
THE VERDICT – Like Miocic, Kharitonov was a mobile fighter with the boxing and ability on the ground to drain and wear down a 41-year-old Mark Hunt. Kharitonov by one sided decision.
7 – Tim Sylvia vs Josh Barnett
February 2005 was the month that Tim Sylvia was blasted out of the cage in just 47 seconds as he attempted to win the interim heavyweight championship. Sylvia’s initial run as champion had ended in 2003 when he was stripped of the title after testing positive for stanozolol following his defense against Gan McGee. Sylvia’s shortcomings were beginning to become apparent at this point and he is often referred to when people talk about the lack of strength in the UFC’s heavyweight division at this time.
Most Notable Win: Ricco Rodriguez – February 28, 2003
Most Telling Defeat: Frank Mir – June 19, 2004
Like Sylvia, Josh Barnett was stripped of the UFC’s heavyweight title after failing a drug test. Had he not done so, it’s possible that Sylvia would never have won his first UFC title at all. Barnett would leave the UFC behind, and Ricco Rodriguez became the new champion before dropping the belt to Sylvia. Barnett remains to this day an outstanding grappler, and continues to display his catch-wrestling prowess in Metamoris, however he has not stepped into the octagon since December 2013.
Most Notable Win: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira – September 10, 2006
Most Telling Defeat: Travis Browne – December 28, 2013
THE VERDICT – It is hard to envisage this fight not ending up on the mat. Barnett is an elite level grappler who would have little trouble forcing Sylvia to tap once it went there. Barnett by submission.
6 – Josh Barnett vs Travis Browne
The more things change the more they stay the same. Not only does Barnett continue to hold a similar ranking today, to the one he did in 2005, his last fight in 2013 was against… Travis Browne. So what made the 2005 version of Josh Barnett different? He had only one real defeat on his ledger, to Pedro Rizzo in 2001. A shoulder injury had disappointingly cut his recent fight with Mirko Cro Cop short, but he remained one of the most fearsome heavyweights on the planet.
Most Notable Win: Randy Couture – March 22, 2002
Most Telling Defeat: Pedro Rizzo – February 23, 2001
If Josh Barnett was a different fighter in 2005 to the one who lost to Browne in 2013, has Browne’s level of performance changed since their meeting? It’s possible that he is. A change of camp has done little to help him push on and become a genuine title contender. Browne was outclassed for five rounds against Fabricio Werdum, and was recently picked apart within a round by Andrei Arlovski. That victory over Barnett in 2013 might have been Browne hitting his ceiling.
Most Notable Win: Alistair Overeem – August 17, 2013
Most Telling Defeat: Fabricio Werdum – April 19, 2014
THE VERDICT – While there is a definite sense that Browne may have dropped off in the past 18 months, was Barnett really a better fight in 2005 than he was in 2013, or was he just perceived that way because of the talent he’d faced? Ultimately, I think this ends in much the same way that 2013 fight did with Browne getting the stoppage.
5 – Andrei Arlovski vs Andrei Arlovski
You knew it was coming, we only just avoided it with Josh Barnett and now we get 2005 Andrei Arlovski vs 2015 Andrei Arlovski. As 2005 began, Arlovski was far from the finished article. He had gone 1-2 in his first three UFC appearances before rebounding with a three fight win streak against Ian Freeman, Vladimir Matyushenko and Wesley “Cabbage” Correira. Hardly the most confidence instilling of runs through a division. That was enough in 2004 to get you there though.
Most Notable Win: Ian Freeman – November 22, 2002
Most Telling Defeat: Pedro Rizzo – March 22, 2002
The Andrei Arlovski of today is a marked improvement, even if it took a one round dismantling of Travis Browne to force people to accept it. Suggestions of a weak chin have followed Arlovski throughout his career, but after a four fight losing streak from 2009 – 2011, the Belorussian has found ways to avoid getting hit while still displaying his power. Furthermore, when he has been tagged, most notably against Anthony Johnson and Travis Browne, he has not crumbled.
Most Notable Win: Travis Browne – May 23, 2015
Most Telling Defeat: Brett Rogers – June 6, 2009
THE VERDICT – The Arlovski of today is more refined. The Arlovski of 2005 would commit more, but leave himself more open and ultimately get picked apart and stopped. Arlovski v.2015 by TKO.
4 – Frank Mir vs Stipe Miocic
In 2004 Frank Mir had cemented himself as the bright new talent in the heavyweight division. He had broken Tim Sylvia’s forearm to grab the UFC heavyweight title from him, and should have been set for a long title reign. A motorcyle accident in September of 2004 had put him on the shelf, and at the time we did not know just how long he would be out. What he had shown in his brief career was a unique skill set at heavyweight that helped him stand out among the UFC crowd.
Most Notable Win: Tim Sylvia – June 19, 2004
Most Telling Defeat: Ian Freeman – July 13, 2002
Since losing to Stefan Struve in 2012, current heavyweight contender Stipe Miocic has continued to improve. His last two performances in particular have seen him emerge as a legitimate future title challenger. In defeat against Junior dos Santos at the end of 2014, Miocic proved that he could hang with fighters perceived to be a level above. When he followed that up with a dominant performance against Mark Hunt in May of this year — stopping him in the fifth round — it was clear that Miocic is now one of the top heavyweights in the world.
Most Notable Win: Mark Hunt – May 10, 2015
Most Telling Defeat: Junior dos Santos – December 13, 2014
THE VERDICT – With Miocic’s movement and ability on the feet, and Mir’s ability, even then, to engage when it didn’t provide his greatest chance of success, Miocic should have enough to eventually stop Mir. Miocic by TKO.
3 – Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic vs Junior dos Santos
The Mirko Cro Cop the world saw when 2005 began was a very different proposition to the one that would lose to Junior dos Santos in 2009. Cro Cop had won five straight, including first round stoppages of Aleksander Emelianenko and Kevin Randleman, and was getting set to face Mark Coleman to determine the number one contender in Pride’s heavyweight division. This was Cro Cop approaching the peak of his powers. A skilled striker with great takedown defense, and an underrated defense on the ground, who also possessed a violent kick or two.
Most Notable Win: Igor Vovchanchyn – August 10, 2003
Most Telling Defeat: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira – November 9, 2003
Since defeating Cro Cop in 2009, Junior dos Santos has gone on to win a world title, defeating the greatest heavyweight of his era — Cain Velasquez — in the process. He has also been through a combined 48 minutes and 9 seconds of torture since then against the same fighter that would shorten the career of any heavyweight. Last time out against Stipe Miocic there was a suggestion that even in victory, dos Santos was not quite the same fighter he was before the Velasquez fights.
Most Notable Win: Cain Velasquez – November 12, 2011
Most Telling Defeat: Cain Velasquez – October 19, 2013
THE VERDICT – Could Cro Cop do what he couldn’t in 2009, trade with dos Santos, and find room for those vicious kicks to connect? Against the dos Santos of 2012 I’d be sceptical, but against a marginally slowed down version in 2015 I think the Cro Cop of old wins an enthralling back and forth war in highlight reel fashion. Late Cro Cop KO.
2 – Antonio “Minotauro” Nogueira vs Fabricio Werdum
Despite the talent that chased them down, Minotauro Nogueira and Fedor Emelianenko had set themselves apart as the two best heavyweights in the world by the time 2005 began. Minotauro had lost by decision to Fedor in the Pride Heavyweight Grand Prix final, but held wins over Heath Herring, Mirko Cro Cop, Dan Henderson and Mark Coleman. His resume read like a who’s who of early 2000’s mixed martial arts. Nogueira had proven that he could take incredible punishment and still find a way to win, submitting many of the world’s best.
Most Notable Win: Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic – November 9, 2003
Most Telling Defeat: Fedor Emelianenko – March 16, 2003
Fabricio Werdum has always been a good heavyweight, but it is only in recent years that people have seen him develop into a great one. An imposing physical presence, with nasty muay thai striking and a submission game that is unparalelled in the heavyweight division. Werdum has traded a win and a loss with Nogueira. In 2006 Nogueira was the better man, in 2013 it was Werdum, as their careers were on very different trajectories. Holding wins over two of the three greatest heavyweights of all time, Werdum now looks to complete the set on Saturday at UFC 188 against Cain Velasquez.
Most Notable Win: Fedor Emelianenko – June 26, 2010
Most Telling Defeat: Junior dos Santos – October 25, 2008
THE VERDICT – There was no doubting which fighter was the better man in either of their previous encounters. The Fabricio Werdum we have seen over the past two years is the best version we have seen throughout his career. Similarly, Minotauro Nogueira may never have been better than he was at the back end of 2004. Logically, stylistically I am telling myself that Werdum could win this fight even though Nogueira is in my eyes the third greatest heavyweight the sport has ever seen. Has the sport come that far, that Fabricio Werdum is better now than the third greatest of all time was then? Of course, should Werdum go on to beat Cain Velasquez on Saturday he catapults himself into a debate where his achievements might be greater than Nogueira’s anyway. Werdum by late submission.
1 – Fedor Emelianenko vs Cain Velasquez
For the best part of ten years Fedor Emelianenko fought the best heavyweights on the planet without suffering a single defeat. 27 victories against the likes of Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, Heath Herring, Mark Coleman, Kevin Randleman, Mirko Cro Cop, Tim Sylvia and Andrei Arlovski. Fedor’s balance, his ability to withstand brutal punishment, and his devastating power made him the dominant force in mixed martial arts in the 2000’s. No fighter was capable of absorbing such force and transforming it into victory so quickly.
Where was Fedor on that timeline of awe-inspiring dominance when 2005 began? He had already beaten Herring, Randleman, Coleman, Kazuyuki Fujita and Naoya Ogawa. Fedor had also recently picked up his second win over Minotauro Nogueira, winning the Pride 2004 Heavyweight Grand Prix in the process. Fedor would go on to dominate for another five years, but he may not have got any better than he was at the start of 2005.
Most Notable Win: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira – December 31, 2004
Most Telling Defeat: Tsuyoshi Kosaka – December 22, 2000
Cain Velasquez is without question the greatest heavyweight of his generation. He is the only one capable of challenging Fedor for the greatest of all time tag, and would further his claim with a win against Fabricio Werdum on Saturday should he win. The names that Velasquez has beaten read impressively enough. Junior dos Santos, Antonio Silva, Brock Lesnar, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. The manner in which he has beaten them is what sets him apart. His cardio is unrivalled in the division. His wrestling is the best MMA wrestling the heavyweight division has ever seen. He has murderous power in his fists, both on the feet and when taking opponents down to pound on them.
What has held Velasquez back is not his level of ability. It is not even a flash knockout defeat to Junior dos Santos in 2011. It is his body. A combination of a modern era that sees fighters, in particular champions, booked less frequently and a body that has let him down and kept him out of the cage on more than one occasion, has meant that we simply haven’t seen enough of the reigning UFC champion. Whenever he chooses to leave the sport, it will be a shame that the body of work he leaves behind had so many gaps in.
Most Notable Win: Brock Lesnar – October 23, 2010
Most Telling Defeat: Junior dos Santos – November 12, 2011
THE VERDICT – These are undoubtedly the two greatest heavyweight fighters the sport has ever seen. Both have destructive power. Both have vicious ground and pound that has no respect for an opponent’s guard. Cain has the wrestling edge, Fedor is more likely to submit his opponent. Cain’s pressure is relentless, Fedor so capable of using his opponent’s aggression against them. There is a questionmark however, and it’s the same one that hangs over the Velasquez vs Werdum fight this coming weekend. Is Cain Velasquez the same fighter we saw beat Junior dos Santos up for four and a half rounds in 2013? Even if he is, Fedor in his pomp is impossible to back against. Even when put under immense pressure he found ways to do the impossible. Fedor finds some way to become the first fighter to submit Cain Velasquez.
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