David Ortiz is arguably the greatest designated hitter of all time. For the past twelve seasons, Ortiz has been one of the most feared hitters in the game and has played a substantial role in helping the Boston Red Sox win three World Series championships. When he eventually retires, Ortiz will be in strong consideration for enshrinement in the National Baseball Hall of Fame. Nearly every play declines with age but Ortiz has managed to remain highly productive offensively with little drop off through his age 38 season. This season, Ortiz has seemingly forgotten how to hit. He has been worth -0.2 bWAR and has an OPS+ seven percent below league average and 46 percent below his career average. While Ortiz is convinced his struggles are a result of a mechanical breakdown, a closer look at his underlying numbers reveals his struggles are real and unlikely to go away.
David Ortiz has always hit for tremendous power. In all but one season since joining Boston in 2003, Ortiz has posted a slugging percentage above .500. He is third among active players in doubles and second in home runs. Aside from being a superb hitter, Ortiz has been able to be so prolific offensively because simply put, he hits plenty of fly balls, not many grounders, and makes a ton of hard contact. That would seem to be the formula for every great hitter but few are able to maintain the consistency he has. Since 2003, Ortiz ranks in the top 25 in FB% and bottom 25 in GB% among all active players. He is also 4th in hard hit percentage in that time. This season however, Ortiz has seen significant declines in each of these core categories.
| # | Season | Name | Team | GB% | FB% | Hard% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2003 | David Ortiz | Red Sox | 33.8 % | 38.7 % | 35.7 % |
| 2 | 2004 | David Ortiz | Red Sox | 34.6 % | 46.0 % | 41.9 % |
| 3 | 2005 | David Ortiz | Red Sox | 31.4 % | 46.1 % | 45.9 % |
| 4 | 2006 | David Ortiz | Red Sox | 36.4 % | 46.8 % | 38.6 % |
| 5 | 2007 | David Ortiz | Red Sox | 37.5 % | 45.3 % | 46.1 % |
| 6 | 2008 | David Ortiz | Red Sox | 36.5 % | 44.9 % | 36.7 % |
| 7 | 2009 | David Ortiz | Red Sox | 32.1 % | 50.5 % | 32.9 % |
| 8 | 2010 | David Ortiz | Red Sox | 37.9 % | 44.8 % | 38.7 % |
| 9 | 2011 | David Ortiz | Red Sox | 41.1 % | 37.5 % | 38.6 % |
| 10 | 2012 | David Ortiz | Red Sox | 36.7 % | 41.8 % | 38.8 % |
| 11 | 2013 | David Ortiz | Red Sox | 38.7 % | 38.7 % | 45.3 % |
| 12 | 2014 | David Ortiz | Red Sox | 36.6 % | 45.7 % | 45.0 % |
| 13 | 2015 | David Ortiz | Red Sox | 43.8 % | 34.9 % | 32.9 % |
(Chart courtesy of Fangraphs.com )
43.8% of the balls he has put in play this season have been grounders, a career high and up 7.7% from his career average. 34.9% have been fly balls, a career low and down over 10% from last season and 8.9% from his career average. To top it all off, Ortiz is not producing nearly as many hard hit balls in play as he has done in the past. According to Fangraphs batted ball rates (which come from Baseball Info Solutions), Ortiz is hitting fewer hard hit balls in play than almost ever before. His Hard% is down just over 12% from last season and almost 6.9% from his career average. At this current rate, Ortiz would produce the fewest hard hit balls in play since his first season in Boston. All these numbers are alarming and help to show why Ortiz’s career low .236 babip this season should not be cited as a sign he is likely to turn it around this season. His batted ball profile is clearly not the same as has been in any years past. Ortiz is not a fast runner to say the least, so it only makes sense that as he continues to hit more grounders and fewer fly balls, he will only continue to see his batting average and slugging percentages decline steeply.
Almost as concerning as Ortiz’s new batted ball profile, opposing pitchers seem to agree believe that Ortiz is not the same hitter he used to be and have begun to pitch him differently than in years past. According to PITCHf/x data obtained through BrooksBaseball.net, pitchers are throwing a higher percentage of fastballs to Ortiz than he had previous seen on average from 2007(the first year the data was available) to 2014.
Fourseam Fastballs
| 2007-2014 | 2015 | |||
| LHP | ||||
| All Counts | 37% | 47% | ||
| First Pitch | 39% | 51% | ||
| Batter Ahead | 40% | 49% | ||
| Even | 37% | 45% | ||
| Pitcher Ahead | 32% | 49% | ||
| Two Strikes | 34% | 48% | ||
| RHP | ||||
| All Counts | 32% | 36% | ||
| First Pitch | 34% | 36% | ||
| Batter Ahead | 33% | 45% | ||
| Even | 31% | 31% | ||
| Pitcher Ahead | 32% | 32% | ||
| Two Strikes | 31% | 31% | ||
(Chart courtesy of data from BrooksBaseball.net)
Left-handed pitchers in particular seem to be challenging Ortiz more than ever with the fourseam fastball. This season, LHPs are throwing 10% more fourseamers than they had previously average in the previous eight seasons. They are throwing the pitch substantially more in all types of counts. What is arguably most troublesome is that even when LHPs are ahead in the count and can presumably try to throw something off-speed, they are still not afraid to challenge him with a fastball and have done so 17% more compared to 2007-2014 in the same situation. While not as substantial as LHPs, righties are also throwing more fourseam fastballs to Ortiz than he had averaged in the previous eight seasons. The biggest change in approach with RHP’s is that they are throwing the pitch 12% more frequently when Ortiz is ahead in the count; a sign they are now believe in the fastball more than ever as a means to regain control of the at-bat. Whereas the fourseam fastball used to be Ortiz’s most deadly pitch to hit, it is troublesome that pitchers are now throwing it more than ever and with greater success, a sign he is not the same hitter he used to be and a sign that pitchers clearly do not think he is the same hitter from years past.
Only time will tell if the mechanical breakdown Boston allegedly found with Ortiz is the reason he is struggling. The numbers would seem to indicate that there is likely a greater issue. His batted ball profile is worrisome and a sign the babip is not entirely a product of bad luck. Furthermore, the fact that pitchers are challenging him more than they have previous averaged the past eight seasons is a sign that pitchers think Ortiz is a different hitter. Ortiz is an all time great DH, but at least for this season, it appears doubtful he will return to his old self.
