It’s often said that there’s not a more difficult position to play in all of sports than that of an ice hockey goaltender. The pressure is immense, and the margin of error is razor thin.
But recently, it has often been called into question how much of an NHL team’s salary cap room should be devoted to the position, and there is certainly a very interesting debate to be had on this front. On the one hand, above average goaltending is practically a necessity for a team to lay claim to a playoff spot. On the other hand, paying top dollar for elite goaltending seems to restrict a team’s ability to maximize the quality depth on the rest of their roster. The difference between an $8 million goalie and a $4 million goalie is, if used correctly, an above average bottom pairing defenseman and an average third line forward or two above average fourth line forwards.
Here’s an interesting statistic for you to chew on. Among the 30 starting goaltenders in the NHL, the average cap hit was $4,727,222. Of the 16 starting goaltenders who made the playoffs, the average cap hit was $4,470,104. Of the 14 starting goaltenders who missed the playoffs, the average cap hit was $5,066,071.
What does this tell us, you ask? Well, it tells us a few things. It tells us that it isn’t always the case that elite goaltending can make a poor team a playoff-caliber one. For example, Philadelphia’s Steve Mason ($4,100,000 cap hit) was terrific this year, to the tune of a .928 save percentage, good for third in the league. It wasn’t enough to drag a poor Flyers team to the playoffs. Nor was Tuukka Rask’s ($7,000,000 cap hit) mark of .922, which was 10th in the league but not enough to get the Bruins in.
The best bargains in the league by far were Washington’s Braden Holtby at $1,850,000 and Minnesota’s Devan Dubnyk at $800,000. What teams are able to do when they are paying goaltenders at rates far below their actual value is supplement the depth of their skaters. Mike Green was on Washington’s bottom pairing this season. Their forward depth was outstanding. Unfortunately for the Capitals, Holtby’s contract is set to expire in the coming weeks. They’ll have to reward him handsomely for his efforts, and as a result it appears likely that the likes of Mike Green and Joel Ward will be lost in free agency.
Another thing to glean from this is that if a team is paying a below average goalie above average money, their season is practically doomed from the outset. Carolina’s Cam Ward ($6,300,00) and Arizona’s Mike Smith ($5,666,667) are examples of goalies who were paid to be elite, but delivered mediocre to abysmal results. Kari Lehtonen’s $5,900,000 cap hit to go with his .903 SV% certainly put a damper on the playoff hopes of the Dallas Stars.
So what we’ve learned is that if a team is paying for elite goaltending, it’s absolutely essential that they actually get elite goaltending. Henrik Lundqvist and Carey Price are examples of this. They carry high cap hits, but both are consistently among the league leaders in save percentage. As a result, it’s a pretty safe bet that the Rangers and the Canadiens make the playoffs on a consistent basis.
Paying lesser goalies a lot of money can work in the short term, but for elite contending teams it will inevitably result in tight cap crunches on a yearly basis in the offseason. The two teams set to go head-to-head in the Stanley Cup Final illustrate this nicely. Corey Crawford’s $6 million cap hit is reasonably worth it if he provides what he did this season on a yearly basis, but every year his salary will result in one or more of his teammates departing to a team that can afford their services. This year, it seems highly likely that Patrick Sharp will be the main cap casualty. Tampa Bay isn’t quite there yet, but when their young guns have their cheap deals expire, they will need to consider if having Ben Bishop at his $5,950,000 cap hit is a luxury they can afford.
While it flies in the face of all logic, perhaps the ideal practice for an NHL team would be to invest heavily in goaltender scouting. Then each offseason, they could target a journeyman/backup who they feel could provide just about equal to or slightly above league average goaltending (about a .915 SV%) over about 50 starts yearly and sign him to a short term deal. If they were successful in doing this (and granted, that is a HUGE if), they would be able to consistently get quality goaltending while having it cost them just slightly above the league minimum.
Since such a practice isn’t likely, the most realistic scenario would be to obtain a goalie who could reliably go .914-.918 in an NHL starter’s role each year and signing him to a long term deal for very reasonable money.
In a salary cap NHL, proper player valuation is crucial to sustainable success. Goaltending is by its nature a very volatile position, and making a huge commitment of many years and a large amount of cap space to a goalie who can’t live up to that contract is practically suicidal for a team’s playoff hopes in the big picture. It’s therefore critical that teams find goalies (unless of course you’re fortunate enough to have a Lundqvist, a Price, or a Rask) who are consistent year-to-year but never too good to where they have their value inflated by a season that they couldn’t repeat.
Main Photo
