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Forecasting the 2015 MLS All-Star Fan XI: TWC

This past Wednesday, Major League Soccer opened up online ballot boxes for the 2015 All-Star Game in Colorado. Until July 3, fans can vote using the ballot at MLSsoccer.com, through a variety of social networks, and by scoring goals in the EA Sports’ FIFA 15 in order to determine this year’s “Fan XI”. Though the Fan XI isn’t the carved-into-stone starting lineup that will face Tottenham Hotspur on July 39 at Dick’s Sporting Goods Park, it’s a pretty good indication. Of the 33 players that make up the last three All-Star Fan XI’s, 24 have ended up starting in the All-Star Game. Here’s the Fan XI that I think should be getting the accolades based on their 2015 performances, as well as the 11 guys who I think will actually get the bulk of the votes.

It’s that time of year again! (Cue GIF of the Week)

This past Wednesday, Major League Soccer opened up online ballot boxes for the 2015 All-Star Game in Colorado. Until July 3, fans can vote using the ballot at MLSsoccer.com, through a variety of social networks, and by scoring goals in the EA Sports’ FIFA 15 in order to determine this year’s “Fan XI”.

Forecasting the 2015 MLS All-Star Fan XI: TWC

Though the Fan XI isn’t the carved-into-stone starting lineup that will face Tottenham Hotspur on July 29 at Dick’s Sporting Goods Park, it’s a pretty good indication. Of the 33 players that make up the last three All-Star Fan XI’s, 24 have ended up starting in the All-Star Game.

Here’s the Fan XI that I think should be getting the accolades based on their 2015 performances, as well as the 11 guys who I think will actually get the bulk of the votes.

 

Goalkeeper (1)

My Vote: Bill Hamid, D.C. United

Expected Winner: Bill Hamid, D.C. United

It’s fairly self-explanatory, but Fan XI voting is traditionally biased towards American players. Last year, eight members of the Fan XI were part of the USMNT for the 2014 World Cup.

Bill Hamid, the highly-touted USMNT goalkeeper of the future, is fully deserving of this spot though. The reigning Goalkeeper of the Year has led the Black-and-Red right back to the top of the Eastern Conference standings. D.C. United are tied for the second-fewest goals conceded, and Hamid’s had a huge role to play in that. Steve Birnbaum, half of D.C.’s starting centre-back pairing, has played only 365 out of a possible 2,520 minutes this year due to injury. Hamid has made more saves than everyone except Seattle’s Stefan Frei, and D.C. have conceded the second-fewest goals in the league.

Voting for somebody other than Hamid is basically a waste of a vote.

 

Defenders (3)

My Votes: Laurent Ciman, Montreal Impact; Bobby Boswell, D.C. United; Omar Gonzalez, LA Galaxy

Expected Winners: Omar Gonzalez, LA Galaxy; Matt Besler, Sporting Kansas City; Brek Shea, Orlando City SC

Remember how bad the Montreal Impact were last season? I’m not saying they’re great now, but the addition of Ciman, and to a lesser extent Bakary Soumare, has made a world of difference in terms of their defensive organization. Boswell got absolutely robbed of a Defender of the Year Award last season and is making a great bid so far to become just the fourth player to win the award multiple times. I’ve always thought that Gonzalez is overrated, but he remains the star of what is, when healthy (ignore the shellacking in Orlando that he watched from the sidelines), a very good Galaxy back four. He’s also the league leader in both recoveries and clearances, blocks, and interceptions (CBI).

As for who I think will win the vote, here’s another bias to consider: Designated Players get a lot of love. Gonzalez and Besler, the starting CB pairing for the USMNT, are both in MLS’ highest tax bracket and have each made the Fan XI the last two seasons. Even though Besler’s first season without running mate Aurelien Collin hasn’t been great, it hasn’t caused public uproar. Shea is a young, attack-minded, American defender, just like DeAndre Yedlin, who was the other defender to win a place in last year’s Fan XI. Seeing as Yedlin will hopefully (surely, of all the games that Tottenham might actually play the guy, THIS will be the one) be lining up in a similar position, there could be a great deal of expectations weighing on Shea’s shoulders.

 

Midfielders (4)

My Votes: Kaka, Orlando City SC; Benny Feilhaber, Sporting Kansas City; Harrison Shipp, Chicago Fire; Perry Kitchen, D.C. United

Expected Winners: Kaka, Orlando City SC; Michael Bradley, Toronto FC; Sacha Kljestan, New York Red Bulls; Benny Feilhaber, Sporting Kansas City

If you’re looking for an even bigger certainty than Hamid in goal, Kaka is it. He’s got six goals, two assists, and is the new owner of the title “classiest player in MLS” in the first year of the post-Henry era. Feilhaber has continued his fine 2014 form and was named MLS’ Player of the Month for April and despite the potential for vote-splitting with teammate Graham Zusi, I’m confident in The Cauldron’s voting smarts.

Voting Bias #3: Attacking players get more votes. A talented attacker is far more fun to watch than a talented defender, hence an offensive leaning 3-4-3 formation for the Fan XI. So while Perry Kitchen and Harry Shipp continue their outstanding development, they will respectively fall to the slightly more attack-minded (and substantially more star-power carrying) duo of Bradley and Kljestan.

If you’ve been counting, that’s a total of three D.C. United players on my ballot, and none from Seattle, New England, Dallas, Vancouver, or the red side of New York. There’s also a total of zero Columbus Crew midfielders on either my ballot or my expected winners list. That midfield, when healthy (get well soon Wil Trapp), is outstanding, and has been a big reason why Kei Kamara is scoring goals for fun. If anyone who makes the Fan XI midfield gets hurt, I really hope any one of Columbus’ midfield five (Finlay, Higuain, Meram, Tchani, Trapp) gets called in.

 

Forwards (3)

My Votes: Clint Dempsey, Seattle Sounders; Sebastian Giovinco, Toronto FC; Fabian Castillo, FC Dallas

Expected Winners: Clint Dempsey, Seattle Sounders; Sebastian Giovinco, Toronto FC; Obafemi Martins, Seattle Sounders

If Columbus Crew fans weren’t disappointed in me yet, I have a feeling they are now. Kei Kamara is leading the Golden Boot Race, and that takes a lot more than luck alone, but he’s been the beneficiary of excellent service from the players behind him. Keep in mind that Dom Dwyer, who finished second in the Golden Boot race last year with 22, only went to the All-Star Game as an injury replacement.

Dempsey is another name you can write into the Fan XI with pen rather than pencil. His brutal 2013 homecoming is a distant memory, as he leads the league in combined goals and assists (13) in what has been a stellar encore to his dream 2014 campaign. Oh, and he also fits just about every voting bias imaginable. I’m almost certain that Sebastian Giovinco, who must be the favourite for MLS’ Player of the Month Award for May, will be joining Deuce.

Who joins those two is perhaps the biggest question surrounding the All-Star ballot. Giles Barnes has led a surprisingly good Houston offence, but probably hasn’t been a buzz-generating player for long enough to get in. Jozy Altidore and David Villa have the voting biases in their corner, Altidore’s currently injured and Villa hasn’t been able to lift NYCFC to much success. Fabian Castillo is my pick as a left-sided almost-Giovinco level gamebreaker.

But Dempsey’s strike partner Obafemi Martins is an all-around force to be reckoned with and, like Dempsey, has followed his MVP-esque 2014 with a fine start to 2015. Martins made the Fan XI last year through EA Sports’ “More Than a Vote” Challenge. I wouldn’t be surprised if he defended that title, seeing how popular a choice the Sounders are in the video game.

Plus, if Dempsey and Martins line up together, Giovinco might be able to drop back into the midfield to give the Fan XI more of a 3-5-2 formation. I’d take that over my ballot’s current 3-1-3-3 formation any day.

In summary, below is how my ballot would line up, followed by a projected lineup for my list of expected winners. Which one would you prefer to see take on Tottenham?

My Ballot:

Expected Winners:

Main Photo:

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