Two of the matches we’ve been anticipating the most when the original draw came out for Roland Garros 2015 will take place on Wednesday on the men’s side, as world #1 Novak Djokovic will square off with the king of clay, and of Roland Garros Rafael Nadal, while Andy Murray will continue his quest to remain undefeated on clay this year against Spanish veteran, and former French Open finalist David Ferrer. Chris de Waard of Tennis Atlantic, along with freelance journos Manuel Traquete and Leich Sinha are on hand to make their predictions for the matches.
(1)Novak Djokovic vs (6)Rafael Nadal
Chris:
This is easily the most anticipated quarterfinal of all time, but can it live up to the hype? All signs have been pointing towards Djokovic winning this tournament. He has been untouchable so far this year, winning every tournament of Masters level and above he played. Nadal, on the other hand, has been going through the worst year of his career, failing to win an event during the European clay swing. As always, Nadal raised his level during Roland Garros, but will it be enough to threaten Djokovic? The pressure on Djokovic has never been higher, but his level is so comfortably above Nadal’s at the moment, that it’s unlikely to be a factor. Not only game wise Nadal is at a disadvantage, the weather tomorrow will also be against him, with moist conditions being predicted. Together with the court having a lower bounce than earlier years, everything is pointing towards a victory for Djokovic. Of course, this is a nine-time champion we’re talking about and he will surely be able to push Djokovic and take a set, but Djokovic is on a mission and will finally beat Nadal at Roland Garros on his seventh try. Djokovic in 4 sets
Manuel:
Many call this the real final and with good reason; whoever wins this match will become the overwhelming favorite to win the tournament. Form would suggest a Djokovic win, he’s already won a Slam and 4 Masters titles this year, including two on clay, and he’s the undisputed #1 player in the world. Nadal, on the other hand, is in the worst period of his career; for the first time ever he’s arrived in Paris without winning a single clay Masters, losing to players who’d normally never be a threat for him on clay – Fognini, Murray and Wawrinka – and looking like Father Time might have finally caught up to him. History, however, favors Nadal: he’s won the tournament 9 times out of 10 and sports a barely believable 70-1 record at the event. He’s also beaten Djokovic in all of their previous six Roland Garros meetings. The pressure is all on Djokovic, who everyone is expecting to finally get over the Nadal hurdle at Roland Garros and go on to win the title for the first time to complete the Career Slam, but it should surprise nobody if Nadal rediscovers his form in the nick of time on the court where he’s always delivered in his career. Nadal in 5 sets
Leich:
Djokovic may not have the best slam finals record but he does certainly have a tremendous quarterfinals record and I see this match playing out no differently than their Monte Carlo encounter. It is unfathomable for me to envision a scenario in which 2015 Djokovic drops 3 sets to the same player in the same match even if the guy standing in front of him is Nadal. He will have dips in play for sure, followed by an obligatory seizure of the nerves but he will be motivated, healthy and finally composed enough to finish a job he started in RG 2012. the Nadal of 2015 simply does not have the resilience or aura of invicibility that has shielded him in editions past to disrupt the algorithmic play of the world’s number 1. Djokovic in 4 sets
(3)Andy Murray vs. (7)David Ferrer
Chris:
The famous song by Public Enemy states ”Don’t believe the hype”. Do we believe the hype in case of Murray’s clay game? After years of being a virtual non-factor on the surface, he came out of nowhere to win a Masters title on it, demolishing Nadal in the final of Madrid, despite having a 0-6 clay record against the Spaniard prior to that match. Did that victory mark a permanent improvement on clay and will he be able to brush up another bad record against one of Nadal’s countrymen, Ferrer, against whom he is 0-4 on the surface? Both have had hiccups this tournament, with Murray dropping a set against Sousa and Chardy, while Ferrer needed five sets against Bolelli. Ferrer recovered impressively in the next round, however, defeating reigning US Open champion Cilic 6-2 6-2 6-4, who was on a 19-set winning streak at Grand Slam level prior to their match. It is likely to become a gruelling match, decided by long rallies. A lot of it will depend on Ferrer’s ability to keep his consistency up, which has become less of a reliability in recent years. If he can get Murray to play his game, being aggressive and moving Murray from side to side, he has an excellent chance to win. Murray needs to be aggressor himself and take control of the match, keeping Ferrer on the back foot, a position where the Spaniard doesn’t like to be. All in all I think that Murray has the edge in this match, even though it’s with the narrowest of margins. Murray in 5 sets
Manuel:
It’s a reedition of the 2012 quarter-finals. Back then, Ferrer won in 4 sets, and he’s also won the other 3 matches they’ve played on clay. Murray has been playing surprisingly well this clay season, capturing two titles – one of them at Masters 1000 level in Madrid – but when it comes to this match you pretty much know what to expect regardless of the surface: an incredible amount of long, gruelling baseline rallies with very limited creativity on display and both players struggling to hit through each other. On clay, Ferrer usually gets the better of those exchanges in this matchup. Ferrer in 5 sets
Leich:
Some may point to his 4-0 h2h advantage on clay (including a win at RG in 2012), to his marquee win against Cilic in R4 or to his 3 titles this year as testament to his continued relevance in the upper echelons of the game, but I still think Ferrer will come up short against Murray, who has played inspired and totally disciplined tennis during this clay season. Ferrer will push Murray to the limit but will buck under pressure once more. Murray in 5 sets
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