After a long off-season, 82 regular season games, and three tough, exciting rounds of the playoffs, it all comes down to this: the Tampa Bay Lightning versus the Chicago Blackhawks in the 2014-15 Stanley Cup Final.
LWOS 2014-15 Stanley Cup Final Preview
Every Stanley Cup Final has its own unique tone, it’s own story, and at first glance the tale of this series seems rather obvious. You have the tough, grizzled, vets on the Blackhawks who have won everything there is to win and are back for more, versus the upstart Lightning, who boast a bevy of talent and enthusiasm and are trying to forge their own glory.
However, the intricacies of this series and just how these two teams will stack up against each other goes much deeper than that. Let’s compare and contrast two of the NHL’s elite teams as they battle for hockey’s greatest prize.
Forwards
One of the Blackhawks strengths is undoubtedly their enviable forward depth, lead as always by captain Jonathan Toews and sniper Patrick Kane. Both players have already proven worthy of their massive upcoming contracts, as Kane sits second in playoff scoring with 20 points (and it’s worth reminding that he wasn’t even supposed to be back from his injury until about this time) while Toews is right behind him with 18. After being reunited, they combined for 7 points in the final two games of the Western Conference Final.
However, beyond that you still have the likes of Marian Hossa (13 points), Patrick Sharp (12 points) and Brad Richards (11 points), not to mention players like Andrew Shaw and Brandon Saad. As a group they’ve averaged 3.29 goals per game, good for third in the playoffs (behind Anaheim and Nashville).
While Tampa can’t quite match that depth, their big guns are no less impressive. It all starts with Tyler Johnson leading the “Triplets,” with Nikita Kucherov and Ondrej Palat on his wings. The trio has combined for 55 points this post-season, while Johnson leads the playoffs in both goals (12) and points (21).
Unfortunately for the Blackhawks, simply shutting down the Triplets isn’t enough, as there is a certain player on the second line who just happens to be one of the top two snipers of his generation. Steven Stamkos took some heat early this post-season, but he has come on strong, scoring goals in five consecutive games against the Rangers in the Eastern Conference Final to increase his statline to 7-10-17. Playing on a line with Valtteri Filppula at center and Alex Killorn on the left wing, Stamkos has excelled on right wing and his presence makes the Lightning top-six incredibly dangerous.
Beyond the top-six, however, there isn’t much offense to be found, but the Lightning will look to get lots of energy and two-way play from the likes of Brian Boyle, Ryan Callahan, Cedric Paquette and J.T. Brown.
ADVANTAGE: Chicago. While the Lightning have the guns to run with the Hawks, they’ve scored more than half-a-goal less per game than Chicago in this post season (3.29 goals for per game versus 2.75 goals for per game). The Hawks depth pushes them over the top.
Defense
The Blackhawks defense, more specifically the deployment of those defensemen, has been one of the most interesting stories of the playoffs. It all starts with former Norris winner Duncan Keith, who is having a post-season for the ages, leading all defensemen in playoff scoring with 18 points and posting an impressive 55.1 CF% at even strength, all while logging an inhuman 31:35 per game.
Keith isn’t the only Hawks blueliner logging heavy minutes though, as all of Niklas Hjalmarsson, Brent Seabrook and Johnny Oduya have averaged more than 25 minutes a night. So far it’s worked for Chicago, but cracks are showing, as their goals against (2.94, 12th in the playoffs), penalty kill (75.5%, 11th in the playoffs), and team corsi for (51.3%, 6th) are nothing to write home about for a team with championship aspirations. If the Hawks are forced to lean too heavily upon some combination of Kyle Cuminsky, Kimmo Timonen or David Rundblad, they could be in trouble too, so that top-four must hold up.
Tampa has largely relied on Victor Hedman, who has finally evolved into the franchise defenseman everyone thought he would be when he was drafted 2nd overall in 2009. While his offensive numbers aren’t huge (10 points in 20 games), he’s anchored the Lightning blueline, playing 23:24 per night and posting an impressive 55.04 CF%.
Where the Lightning differ from the Hawks is in their balance on the backend, where beyond Hedman we find Anton Stralman, Jason Garrison, Matt Carle, Braydon Coburn and Andrej Sustr all logging more than 16 minutes per night. Throw in Nikita Nesterov (who has gotten into 14 games, as Lightning coach Jon Cooper prefers to go with seven d-men), and there’s depth of quality the Hawks can’t match.
ADVANTAGE: Tampa Bay, barely. In a mirror image to the offense, Tampa has more depth and has averaged half-a-goal against less than Chicago (2.45 goals against to 2.94 goals against). However, another monster series by Keith and the Hawks top-four might tip this in Chicago’s favor.
Goaltending
Hawks starter Corey Crawford hasn’t quite lived up to the standard he set for himself in Chicago’s 2013 Cup run (when he had a .932 SV% and a 1.84 GAA), but he’s been solid when he needed to be.
After getting benched versus the Predators in the opening round, he’s rebounded nicely to up his save percentage to a respectable .919, though his goals against average still looks ugly (2.56). However, he’s shown an uncanny knack for keeping the Hawks in games (he’s allowed more than three goals only thrice this post-season), which is all a team with the talent of the Blackhawks needs to be successful.
Backing up Crawford is Scott Darling, who has 3 wins in 5 games this post-season, and sports a 2.21 GAA and a .936 SV%.
It hasn’t been entirely smooth sailing for Bolts netminder Ben Bishop either, as he’s been pulled a couple of times and battled inconsistency (his stat line against the Rangers was particularly damming, with two shutouts offset by three games allowing five goals).
However, he does lead the playoffs in both wins (12) and shutouts (3), while his .920 SV% (8th) and 2.15 GAA (6th) have been elite as well.
Bishop’s backup is Andrei Vasilevskiy, who has made two relief appearances this post-season allowing 4 goals on 33 shots.
ADVANTAGE: Chicago. Crawford may not have been able to match Bishop’s numbers so far, but his relative consistency and experience should be enough. Plus, if Crawford goes down, the Hawks have a viable option with Darling, where as Tampa Bay would be in serious trouble without Bishop.
Coaching
Hawks coach Joel Quenneville is quite simply one of the best coaches of his generation and a sure-fire Hall-of-Famer. His resume both as a coach and as a player is incredibly extensive, but the important thing to note is his two Stanley Cups at the helm of this iteration of the Blackhawks. If he can make it three, he becomes one of the architects of the first true post-cap dynasty and only the 10th head coach in NHL history to accomplish the feat.
Known more for his fiery demeanor, few see the brilliant tactician and the steady hand he brings while steering the Blackhawks ship. His move to put Kane and Toews back together against the Ducks in round three likely saved Chicago’s post-season run.
Cooper, on the other hand, is the polar opposite of Quenneville. In just his third NHL season as a head coach (and boasting less than one-seventh the wins Quenneville has accrued as a head coach), Cooper is heading into his first Stanley Cup Final. Cooper arrived in the NHL the long way, passing through the USHL and the AHL before finally getting his opportunity, though he’s won championships at every level and would love to add another here.
His demeanor behind the bench could also not be more opposite from Quenneville’s. Cooper plays a very unassuming role, often quietly sitting back and watching the action unfold, but that isn’t to say he doesn’t have his hand in every aspect of his team’s performance or doesn’t speak out when he feels its warranted. He’s worked with many of the kids on the Lightning for years, dating back to their time together with Norfolk in the AHL when they won a Calder Cup, and Cooper knows which buttons to press.
ADVANTAGE: Chicago. The Stanley Cup Final is the ultimate chess match between coaches, and as brilliant as Cooper might be in pushing his team forward, there is no trick that Quenneville hasn’t seen or doesn’t know how to counter.
Special Teams
Chicago boasts a pretty strong power play unit, usually led by Toews, Kane and Shaw with Keith and Sharp on the points. Overall, the Hawks PP is operating at a 19.6% efficiency rate (7th), a slight up-tick from their regular season numbers. Kane leads the team in power play points with 7, while Toews and Keith both have 5.
However the team has struggled on the penalty kill, to the tune of 75.5% (11th). The top three power play teams this post-season, Minnesota, Nashville and Anaheim, all perhaps not coincidentally ran into the Hawks. One might be inclined to think the Hawks penalty kill was simply a victim of these teams, until one considers Nashville was 25th, Minnesota was 27th and Anaheim was 28th in power play efficiency during the regular season, indicating many of their problems are of their own doing. Against a skilled Tampa power play, the entire PK unit, Toews, Hossa, Saad and their top-four defensemen (not to mention Crawford), has to be better.
Speaking of which, Tampa’s power play might not blow anyone away just by looking at the overall number (which is still a very good 22.2%), but that includes a horrible stretch where they couldn’t buy a goal early in the playoffs. However, in the last 12 games, the Lightning power play has been red-hot at 36.8% (14-for-38). Kucherov and Stamkos have 8 power play points apiece to lead the league, while Johnson is right there with 7.
Like the Blackhawks, the Lightning have had their fair share of troubles on the penalty kill, operating at 81.2%, two-and-a-half percentage points below their regular season number. That said, they actually had one of the best penalty kills in the opening rounds of the playoffs, until they ran into a hot Rangers team that burned them for seven power play goals. They’re a threat to score short-handed though, as are the Blackhawks, as both teams have three shorties so far this post-season.
ADVANTAGE: Tampa Bay. For all their talent, the Blackhawks should have more effective special teams. For all their talent, the Lightning actually do.
How The Blackhawks Win:
Scoring, at least at five-on-five, shouldn’t be a question for the Blackhawks, as Toews, Kane, et all have been here before and have shown no signs of slowing down (they have, in fact, gotten better). The question is whether or not everything behind that elite group of forwards holds up.
If the top four defenseman can continue to bend but not break, and if Crawford can continue to battle and keep his team in it, Chicago has every chance in the world to take their third Cup in six years.
Throw in a blend of youth, poise, veteran leadership, and the fact this group knows what it takes to grind out that 16th win, and it’s not hard to see why they are considered the favorites by many.
How The Lightning Win:
For Tampa Bay, it’s pretty simple: they have to focus on the defensive side of the puck, and then use their skill and speed in transition for offensive opportunities. The Lightning can’t afford to get lulled into a run-and-gun type of game, because Chicago can not only hang with the Bolts in that regard, they might actually be better at it, and Tampa Bay hasn’t faced a team with that ability yet.
If the top-six can continue to pump pucks into the goal, if the bottom-six can make some kind of impact offensively, and if Bishop can steal a game or two, as he did against the Rangers, Tampa has just as much a chance to take this series as the Blackhawks do.
LWOS Hockey Department Predictions:
Aaron Wrotkowski – Blackhawks in 4
Scott Habiger – Blackhawks in 5
Ken Hill – Blackhawks in 6
Ben Kerr – Blackhawks in 6
Matt Ricks – Blackhawks in 6
Charlie Clarke – Blackhawks in 6
Griffin Schroeder – Blackhawks in 6
Chris Pudsey – Blackhawks in 6
Tyler Shea – Blackhawks in 6
Shawn Wilken – Blackhawks in 6
Cristiano Simonetta – Lightning in 7
Markus Meyer – Lightning in 7
David Stevenson – Lightning in 7
Kyle Morton – Lightning in 7
Deidre Matthews – Lightning in 7
Nick Godin – Lightning in 7
Main Photo:
