Two of the four men’s quarterfinal matches of Roland Garros 2015 will take place on Tuesday, as Kei Nishikori is set to face the remaining French player in the tournament, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Swiss Stan Wawrinka will face off with his compatriot Roger Federer in a battle of one handed backhands. Tadeas Gavenda, Leich Sinha, and LWOS’s own Niall Clarke are on hand to make their predictions and preview the matchups.
(5)Kei Nishikori vs. (14)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
Tadeas:
Home favorite Tsonga is quite unexpected quarterfinalist, given that he is seeded 14th. He stunned his fans in Paris by defeating 4th seeded Berdych relatively comfortably, losing only one set in the tiebreak. He showed breathtaking tennis and demonstrated also a flashback of his previous form, as he reached semifinals here back in 2013. Reaching the quarterfinals here is the best result for Nishikori, who leads their H2H 4:1, but this will be their first meeting on clay. Nishikori’s matches in Paris were decisive so far, but yet he was not tested by dangerous opponent. It seems that we may expect attacking tennis with very few endless and tiring rallies. I don’t think one of them is a clear favorite. But from the other point of view, only one of them, when being at optimal form, is able to challenge even Nadal and Djokovic. Nishikori in 4 sets
Leich:
Despite facing very game and competent opponents in Bellucci and Gabashvili, it’s no secret that Nishikori has benefited from a very favourable draw and a walkover leading into this QF matchup. However the true test starts here for the fully rested Japanese ace who will look to further assert his head to head dominance against the heavy hitting local favorite. Look for him to implement his highly entertaining brand of aggressive baseline tennis early on and to paddle Tsonga side to side. However, Tsonga, buoyed by crowd support and brimming with confidence following his dismantling of world number 4 Berdych, will most certainly have his way during certain moments of the match and this will likely unsettle Kei long enough to take a set or two. Nishikori in 4 sets
Niall:
Tsonga has played some great tennis at this year’s French Open, especially in beating Tomas Berdych. The Frenchman’s forehand was on fire as he blasted Berdych off the court throughout most of the match. Nishikori has come through the draw without dropping a set and is undoubtedly amongst the favourites to go all the way. He will also be fresh, especially after a walkover against Benjamin Becker in round three. Tsonga’s serve will be the key shot here. Nishikori is one of the best returners on tour, so if Jo serves at a low percentage then It is likely his second serve with be eaten up. Nishikori is also the better overall player at the moment, as Tsonga is clearly past his best, but if Tsonga brings his A game there are not many players better. The Frenchman is the home crowd’s last hope, so they will be 100% behind their man, so the handling of the crowd will also be a huge factor. Will it motivate Tsonga? Or will the added pressure get to him?
Kei will have to take the crowd out of the match from the get go if he wants to make them a non-factor. A strong start will silence them, and make the hostile atmosphere a lot easier to handle. A strong start for Tsonga will just pump them up even more, so at the very least Nishikori needs to keep it close in the early stages. The Japanese’s backhand will be a key shot, especially cross court to Tsonga’s weaker wing. Kei also leads the head to head 4-1. There are so many factors as to why this is such a great match-up, but I have to stick to my gut and go with Nishikori. The Japanese is the better clay courter and a good start will likely take the crowd out of it. Nishikori in 4 sets
(2)Roger Federer vs. (8)Stan Wawrinka
Tadeas:
Very anticipated match between the two decorated Swiss players. Federer leads their H2H convincingly 16:2, but it may be a misleading fact, as most of those matches were played before Wawrinka made his breakthough and became a serious contender. Wawrinka defeated Federer last year in Monte Carlo and their epic match at World Tour Finals is still remembered. Both players advanced comfortably to the quarterfinals, losing only one set in four matches. Wawrinka showed the ruthless performance against Simon and seems to be in the best form for quite a while. Federer was tested by Monfils, but finally prevailed in four sets. The prediction is quite difficult. Wawrinka seems to be on fire, but he often can’t handle Federer’s style, which was confirmed in Rome, few weeks ago. On the other hand, Federer’s age may be a problem, if the match will be long and grueling, given that clay is physically very demanding surface. In that case, Wawrinka would have better chances. But assuming both will try to show their best, I am going with Federer. Federer in 4 sets
Leich:
The bottom half of the draw presents a golden opportunity for Federer to seize his place for a 6th time in an RG final. However, drawing an in-form Wawrinka in his quarter, whose great play (minus a slight dip against Dusan Lajovic) has largely flown under the radar in week 1, may prove to be an ominous presaging of false hope. Wawrinka certainly has a style that can cause Federer fits on clay and when he hits his stride, his punishing brand of tennis can render his opponents helpless (see Nishikori AO match). Whether he has the resilience and tenacity to carry this form in a best of 5 against his fellow countryman and friend remains a strong point of contention heading into this match . As for Federer, he’s shown that he’s still capable of playing well on this surface and if he can stay composed and steady, he can gradually pick Wawrinka apart and let the errors rain. He certainly has the mental upper hand here, and this will ultimately play itself out as a battle of nerves. Federer in 4 sets
Niall:
Wawrinka has quietly made his way through the draw comfortably, not needing to go more than four sets so far. That might suit the 2014 Australian Open champion as nobody is touting him as a potential champion. Wawrinka’s game suits the clay as it gives him time to set up his big shots, which can be devastating on their day. He can also be very erratic, and prone to ridiculous errors. Federer has come through without much trouble despite not being at his best. He passed the test of Monfils for the loss of only one set in a match many expected him to lose.
Wawrinka’s record against Federer is 2-16, which doesn’t make for good reading if you’re a Stan fan, but the good news is that the two victories were on clay. Wawrinka has struggled with Federer throughout his career, but he struggled with Nadal too and has beaten him twice in a row. If I was to go with my head, Federer wins in four. His variety plus the mental block has been hard for Wawrinka to deal with on most occasions, and in best of five conditions Federer has an even bigger advantage. But I just have a gut feeling that Wawrinka may spring a surprise and produce one of those special ‘Stanimal’ performances and come through in an epic encounter. Do I go with my head or my gut? Federer in 4 sets
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