As is becoming the custom, this weekend we are again gifted with multiple fight cards. This new tradition makes a hermit’s life all the more thrilling. Friday and Saturday presents us with a fantastic double-bill of boxing and MMA. In particular, we are treated with two fantastic free main events. Each features high-level opposition who have faced some of the world’s elite. Let’s take a quick look at both nights’ mains and break down the best plays for those interested in the action.
A Gambler’s Prediction: Quick Plays for Weekend of May 29th
Friday 5/29/15 – PBC on Spike 9pm EST
Amir Khan vs Chris Algieri
This is on paper a mismatch. Do not be fooled though! This contest serves as a potential springboard for the next contestant in the Floyd “Money” Mayweather lottery. With the stakes that high, expect both competitors to fight at their optimum level. Khan, in particular, has long been in contention for a Mayweather crack. Unfortunately, this has never come to pass. With Floyd threatening retirement come September this may be his last shot.
Chris Algieri has been on the other end of boxing’s elite spectrum. In his last outing, he gave a spirited effort against Manny Pacquiao. Ultimately outclassed he survived the full 12rds but he was downed 6 times. To his credit (and the critique of the referee) he was able to survive Manny’s onslaught. A loss to Amir could be the end of the line as far as high-level opposition is concerned.
So where does that leave us? Looking over the prop bets there are some juicy odds. If we look at Khan’s record against tough opposition he more often than not wins. He does not finish though. Chris Algieri is in the same boat. Amir boasts a 58% KO ratio vs Chris’s comparably paltry 38%. When we keep those numbers in focus two plays stand out. First, we have the fight going distance at +125. The other is Not Khan Inside Distance at +145. I would recommend either. For myself I lean towards the Khan prop. It is a somewhat foregone conclusion that Khan wins. Amir has a heightened sense of confidence but I don’t see that translating into a knockout.
Final Verdict: Not Khan Inside Distance +145
The UK is also featuring another showcase card for some of its bright cards. I would recommend parlaying the Khan play with straight up picks of Kell Brook, Anthony Joshua and Lee Selby.
Saturday 5/30/15 – UFC UFN 67 10pm EST
Carlos Condit vs Thiago Alves
This fight has joking been referred to as the welterweight title fight of 2009. Do not be fooled though. In a stacked welterweight division, these are still two of the most exciting fighters in the class. Both are still eager to display their relevance in today’s packed scene. A win on Saturday will catapault either back into elite status.
Thiago Alves is continuing a remarkable comeback. After contesting for the WW division against ATG, Georges St-Pierre, he fell under with a continuing set of injuries. those setbacks have seen him limited to only 4 appearances in the cage in the last 4 years. Saturday will see him seek his 3rd straight win.
Carlos Condit is also on the path to rehabilitation and redemption. Coming off a disappointing injury TKO last March, the Natural Born Killer has been chomping at the bit to get back into contention. A former interim champion, Condit has seen a career-worst slide, going 1 for 4. Taking out the “Pitbull” will get him headed back into the right direction.
When we look at the habits of these fighters a few things stand out. First, there are long periods of inactivity between both. That can always throw a wrench into the plans. Next both men go for the finish, both on the winning and losing side. Condit has only had his hand raised by judge’s decision twice in his career. I do anticipate this trend to change.
Even with the time off, I still believe Carlos is the superior fighter. I fully expect him to attempt to come back in regular form. Exciting and violent! The props for this outcome are value-packed, Condit ITD at +129. For those who think otherwise there is still a decent play available at -159 for Not Condit ITD. To the loyal Carlos fans who see a full 5rds commencing, I would recommend Condit by 5d decision at +211. In any scenario, there is value awaiting.
Final Verdict: Condit Inside the Distance at +129.
Good luck to all of those who trail me! Do your picks differ? If so, let me know your thoughts below
