You may have seen a report on ESPN regarding a 2013 Bowman Chrome baseball card of Kris Bryant. The card was autographed, graded by Beckett Grading Services (BGS) 9.5 out of 10, and numbered 1/1. It is what we call in the hobby a superfractor, which are some of the most sought after cards in the sports card market due to their extreme rarity. What is a card that there is only one version of worth? To the seller who listed it on eBay he was asking for $89,999 or best offer. While we don’t know what he actually sold it for, it was purchased by a company that planned to repackage the card in an upcoming sports card product as the ultimate chase card (the nicest card you could potentially pull by buying their boxes). During their interview with ESPN, they valued the card at $50,000. At the time Kris Bryant had been the top prospect in MLB, but the Cubs had yet to call him up to play a game in the show. So Bryant had played in as many MLB games as you and I have, but his autograph on a piece of shiny cardboard was worth more than most new BMWs or Mercedes.
Prospecting in Sports Cards is Spiraling Out of Control
Collectors of cards, buttons, stamps, dolls, or anything really will have their own specialties and focus that usually reflect their interests. In sports cards people usually collect a few favorite teams and players, collect specific sets, etc. One form of the collector is called a prospector. They invest in rookie cards and prospects and sit on them till they go up in value then resell. It is a big gamble and meant for those people that like to live by the sword and die by the sword. I personally do not prospect but do keep a collection of rookie cards of some of my favorite players. Each of the big four sports (MLB, NHL, NFL, and NBA) have a premier or “official” rookie card. When you have three or four card companies producing cards and each company makes about twenty sets, some rookie cards are worth more than others even of the same player. I am not sure what the premier basketball rookie card is but hockey is Upper Deck’s Young Guns. Football and baseball is Bowman Chrome. These cards are the most desirable and sought after rookies in their respective sports.
The Kris Bryant mentioned above is a Bowman Chrome. The 2014 Bowman Kris Bryant superfractor was found and placed on eBay for only $25,000 or best offer. The 2014 mini superfractor also was listed on eBay for $2,500 or best offer (the mini was not autographed). Prospecting is too high risk high reward to justify the high costs. Bowman chrome runs relatively expensive compared to most sets of players in the big leagues. Hobby boxes of Bowman Chrome contain one autograph per box at about $60 a box. Most boxes of other sets will contain three to four hits. Upgrade to the jumbo hobby box for $120 and you get two more autographs added in the mix. Most of the players featured in a Bowman Chrome set were drafted that year or the year before and have served little to no time in the major league level.
There is no guarantee that they will be good, their cards will rise in value, or that they will even make the majors. However, the value of prospect cards is spiraling out of control. Take for example Carlos Correa. Correa is ranked #2 on MLB.com’s Top 100 Prospects and #1 for his team’s top 30, the Houston Astros. A 2013 Bowman Chrome autograph of Correa would cost you at least $125, a graded version like the Bryant around $300. This card is not numbered, short printed, nor contain any game used memorabilia like jerseys or bats. How does Correa’s autograph stack up compared to one the biggest names in baseball? Let’s look at Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia. Pedroia’s resume includes 2X World Series Champion, 2007 A.L. ROY, 4X All-Star, 3 Gold Gloves, a Silver Slugger Award, the cover athlete for MLB 09: The Show, and the 2008 A.L. MVP. An autographed card (not Bowman Chrome) of Pedroia featuring a piece of game used jersey and bat in it numbered /10 was selling for $40 or best offer on eBay. Correa hasn’t seen one pitch at the MLB level yet his autograph card is over 3x as much as Pedroia’s. Or in the case of hockey Wayne Gretzky autograph card would cost you about $200 or $300. A Johnny Hockey (Gaudreau) unsigned, non-numbered, non relic rookie card sold for $521 earlier this season.
How did we get here as a hobby? How can we allow someone who is projected to do well be worth more than someone who has proven themselves every season? While prospecting isn’t anything new, these record high prices seemed to have first appeared in 2011 when a huge prospect named Bryce Harper made his MLB debut. Stealing the show was another rookie who goes by the name of Mike Trout. Both of these guys are continuing to shatter what are already high expectations and demand for their cards keeps skyrocketing. As a result, the price for their cards has done the same. Their Bowman Chrome autos, especially from their rookie and prospect years, are fetching at least $500 a piece while graded examples are somewhere in the neighborhood of $1500 or more. I believe that many prospectors and sellers have seen the demand and tried to jump on the bandwagon to capitalize. That being said, sellers and prospectors are inadvertently contributing to the problem as they scramble with each other to buy prospect cards only to resell to each other at higher prices.
For those who know what they are doing and have had success, prospecting is a great money maker for them. However, the high startup costs, lack of experience from players, no promise they will make the majors or will do well if they make the majors should be enough to deter most people. Also chances are you will get stuck with a bunch of prospect cards that either did not make the majors or did but are just average players. If you are still interested in prospecting, I wish you good luck and feel free to show me your hits on Twitter.
Main Photo Lisa Blumenfeld
