Stan Wawrinka has been one of the second-tier of the tennis elites for a few years now. He has been consistently in the top ten for the past full two years now.
Of course, like almost all of the next group of top players for the past few years, he has had a ton of trouble against the “Big 4”. His head-to-head against Djokovic is 3-17 and he has done no better against Federer and Nadal, going 2-16 and 2-12 against those two respectively. He actually has one of the better records of any player against Andy Murray, posting a career 6-8 including winning their last two meetings.
Wawrinka broke out of that “slightly lagging behind” group, though, when he won his maiden Grand Slam in Australia last year. He did what David Ferrer, Kei Nishikori, and Tomas Berdych never have so far. He immortalized himself in tennis history with a title that the other second-tier of this era haven’t been able to.
He struggled in Indian Wells and Miami immediately thereafter but followed it up with another history-marking title in Monte Carlo. He beat Federer for only the second time in his career in the final of that tournament and the world was finally ready for Wawrinka to join the ranks of the tennis elite. He was the first to break the “Big 4” barrier.
And then he wasn’t. Pedestrian result followed pedestrian result and suddenly Wawrinka was back down in that group of “forever next in line”s. The Melbourne and Monte-Carlo titles became distant memories. Victories over Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic wouldn’t come anymore. He has lost his last five matches against Federer and Djokovic. Sure, he took Djokovic to a fifth set in Melbourne this year. But it ended in a quick and disappointing bagel against the Swiss #2.
Last year, Wawrinka’s performance at the French Open was disappointing, to say the least. He lost the final two sets of his four-set match to Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 6-2 6-0, a result which Andy Roddick called out as something that a Grand Slam champion just can’t do. We knew he could perform on clay from Monte Carlo. But he could not back up that performance in Madrid, Rome, or–most importantly–Roland Garros.
In the past twelve months, Wawrinka still has not been that dominant Grand Slam champion self. He is still a top ten player, of course. He reached the quarterfinals at both Wimbledon and the US Open. He won titles in Rotterdam and Chennai. He certainly had the results that would back up his top ten ranking. But none of the results are what we expect or want to see from a Grand Slam champion.
There are two Wawrinka’s that can show up at any given tournament–or any given match, really. There is the solid top ten Wawrinka that competes on any day. The Wawrinka that is the Swiss #2 and a member of the “next group of four” club. This Wawrinka won’t win a Grand Slam. This Wawrinka plays his heart out against Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic but never actually beats them. This Wawrinka will usually avoid bad losses at Masters and Slams but won’t win them.
On the other hand, we saw the Melbourne 2014 Wawrinka. This Wawrinka took full advantage of his favorable playing-style with Djokovic and played his heart out until he won 9-7 in the fifth. This Wawrinka hit a pre-injury Nadal off the court in the final in Melbourne. This Wawrinka finally got the “can’t beat Federer” monkey off his back two months later with a brilliant performance in the Monte-Carlo final.
And this better Wawrinka showed up again in Rome. He absolutely blasted Rafael Nadal off the court in the quarterfinal, a much-more-impressive clay repeat of his Melbourne triumph. He couldn’t follow it up with a similarly-inspired performance against Federer, who beat Wawrinka without too much trouble in the semis.
Wawrinka will want to avenge last year’s French Open disappointment. He will want to continue his good form in Rome. We know he wants to compete at a top level again. The question is, which Wawrinka will show up? Will it be the quarterfinal-is-the-limit solid player? Or can it be the potential Grand Slam champion who hasn’t made an appearance in over a year?
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